Wow. It appears all the research has been done based on a "best case" scenario. Like Cheri said, finding teams is easy, finding good teams is not. For every good team you can find, there are 10 who will trash the truck, not take care of it, get bored or discouraged because the easy money they thought they were going to get isn't there, and they quit. These 10 teams are the ones "looking for work, ready for action, and able to get in a truck after orientation in days."
"we know that driver turnover is a leading cause of owner problems/bankruptcy, but doesn't that also imply that there are ample numbers available?"
No. It implies there are ample warm bodies available, all of whom caused fleet owners to go bankrupt.
So, after you've been burned a couple of times and you realize that merely a team of warm bodies isn't gonna cut it, the truck sits there for a week or three while you find another team and they go through orientation.
In the "best case," sure, you can have teams lined up and waiting in the wings, but this is reality we're talking about here, and any team worth their weight in sand isn't going to sit around for weeks waiting for a truck to get into. A good team will wait even less time. Unless you're prepared to put a team on retainer and pay them to wait, they won't.
"regarding gas prices, we are being told that price fluctuations really don't significantly affect the owner's take, since any increase in fuel is offset by higher charges from points above"
In the rose-colored glasses, overly simplistic view of things, that's true, especially if the split is 60/40 with the 60 going to the team and they're paying for fuel. On a load by load basis, that won't affect the owner's take at all. But fuel costs affect the driver, and as fuel costs rise, the drivers see their incomes shrink while the owner's income stays the same. Frustration sets in, they quit. Or, they start cherry picking loads to get the most return out of each one. They do OK but the owner's revenue drops over the long run. The owner isn't pleased and starts looking for a new team. Or it can be as simple as higher fuel prices result in long term depressed revenue for the drivers and they simply get discouraged and quit.
Drivers have no investment in the business, not a penny in the truck. Always remember that. They are not motivated to take the truck into consideration in any decisions they make. Aside from many not wanting to take care of it, they don't understand the ramifications of truck ownership. Meaning, they see the work they are doing and see how much of the revenue they don't get, because it's going to the owner, and they get frustrated, especially when their fuel costs are preventing them from making what they expect. The problems of driving for a truck owner and not understanding things from the owner's perspective are almost as profound as an owner who has never driven a truck trying to understand things from the driver's perspective.
Not too long after I got into this business (driving a van) I thought to myself, "Well, I need to get me 2 or 3 more of these. Put some drivers in 'em and make me some real money. Maybe get that straight truck that a neighbor has for sale." Then I talked to more and more drivers, of cargo vans and straight trucks, and it became evident what I would be getting myself in for. In short order it became clear that finding and keeping good drivers could very well end up being a near-full time job.
It also became clear that I didn't know squat, and the more I learned the less I knew. At this point I've learned a lot, so I'm pretty much clueless and don't know a thing.
My advice to someone who wants to get into expediting, at this point in time, as a straight truck fleet owner, would be to buy a good, used truck, cheaply, put down as much as you can, have it paid off in a year, and before you take the first load have between $5000 and $10,000 in the bank for reserves, and then drive it yourself for a solid year.
After a year you'll have a little insight into what it's like out here, you'll see the money that is there on both ends after a 60/40 split, you'll have talked to many drivers and you'll know what you're dealing with, your truck will be paid off, and if you still like what you see then you can stick a team in there and then start thinking about a $100,000 truck.
Nobody here is telling you that it will not work, or your chances are zero. Some fleet owners are indeed successful. You friend is apparently one of them. Very few failed fleet owners hang out here on EO. But the simple fact is most are not successful, most fail, and the ones who fail have all generally come into the business with the same outlook as you - optimistic and full of assumptions garnered as a result of inexperience and ignorance. The point of the responses is not to discourage people from getting into this business, but rather as the Col said, we're trying to keep you from stepping on your own crank.
Just a recently here we had a guy on here who asked about buying a van and getting into the expediting. It quickly became clear that he was clueless and was setting himself up for disaster. When he was told by several people what kind of van to buy and what kind not to buy, he promptly went out and bought what not to buy. When he was told what to do and not do when outfitting it, he powered through and did all the wrong things, 'cause he knew better. People make bad decisions, but not him. He was going to be the exception to the rule. It was only the day before he was go to orientation that he saw the light and found out that his revenue expectations were just plain silly, even though he had been told several times just how silly they were.
He was a classic stereotypical example of someone from general trucking who was wholly unprepared for expediting. He was used to driving a company truck, driving 8-10 hours a day, every day, racking up the miles. He was bound and determined, just like all the rest of the stereotypical examples, that expediting would be essentially the same, and he would succeed. We were able to open his eyes a bit and he reevaluated his expectations. Disaster averted.
You are the classic stereotypical example of someone who isn't in the business and therefor doesn't really know it, but wants to get into expediting, and will be coming into it with cherry picked examples and very limited knowledge of successful fleet owners and thinking that's the norm, and believing you'll do the same. You can't look at the 20% of successful fleet owners who are successful and translate that into "I will be, too." Just because you're friend is successful with 4 trucks doesn't mean you will be with even one, even if you do all the things he does. Things may work out great and you might be wildy successful, but the fact is, the chances are that you won't. And if you're not fully prepared for that, it'll be a disaster.
