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The Trump Card...

ATeam

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Trafalgar battleground polls are extremely tight.
In this Fox News article, Trafalger's chief pollster speaks of the other polls saying, “What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote."

Is there such a thing as hidden Trump voters that the other pollsters are missing? If so, will these shy voters turn out to vote? We'll know in less than two weeks.
 

ATeam

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This poll may help.
The news stories are coming in following last night's debate. Answering the question, "Who won the debate?" depends on how you define the win. Is is about likability? Truthfulness? Voter minds changed? Candidate poise? Special jabs placed by one candidate against the next?

Having read a range of these stories from a variety of media sources this morning, it seems to me that few minds changed. People who liked Trump before the debate like him after. Same with Biden. This debate was not a catastrophic event or hugely beneficial for either candidate.

I did not watch most of the debate. While taking one glimpse, I saw Trump score important Texas points over Biden with the oil industry talk. That could swing some Texas votes in Trump's favor, which Trump badly needs in a high Electoral College-vote state, where the margin is razor thin now.
 

muttly

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In this Fox News article, Trafalger's chief pollster speaks of the other polls saying, “What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote."

Is there such a thing as hidden Trump voters that the other pollsters are missing? If so, will these shy voters turn out to vote? We'll know in less than two weeks.
We shall see. Trafalgar was one of the closest to being accurate 4 years ago.
That is important to note.
Some polling groups took it on the chin last time with the presidential polls (Gallup)and have disbanded operations in that sector.
 

muttly

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The news stories are coming in following last night's debate. Answering the question, "Who won the debate?" depends on how you define the win. Is is about likability? Truthfulness? Voter minds changed? Candidate poise? Special jabs placed by one candidate against the next?

Having read a range of these stories from a variety of media sources this morning, it seems to me that few minds changed. People who liked Trump before the debate like him after. Same with Biden. This debate was not a catastrophic event or hugely beneficial for either candidate.

I did not watch most of the debate. While taking one glimpse, I saw Trump score important Texas points over Biden with the oil industry talk. That could swing some Texas votes in Trump's favor, which Trump badly needs in a high Electoral College-vote state, where the margin is razor thin now.
Screenshot_20201023-070656.png
 

ATeam

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Trafalgar battleground polls are extremely tight.
Data From the Trafalger website. Some of the Trafalger data is weeks old.

FiveThirtyEight/Trafalger

AZ (11) Biden +3.5/Trump +5.0
FL (29) Biden +3.8/Trump +3.1
GA (16) Biden +0.9/Trump +6.5
IA (6) Biden +1.0/Not Listed
MI (16) Biden +8.0/Trump +0.6
MN (10) Biden +7.9/Trump +0.4
NV (6) Biden +6.6/Not Listed
NH (4) Biden +11.5/Not Listed
NC (15) Biden +2.9/Trump + 1.7
OH (18) Trump +1.0/Trump +3.7
PA (20) Biden +6.1/Biden +2.4
TX (38) Trump +0.5/Trump +6.0
WI (10) Biden +6.6/Trump +0.9

Trafalger is an outlier whose methodology is said to account for the shy Trump voter. The FiveThirtyEight summary of numerous polls, which includes Trafalger, gives 11 of 13 battleground states to Biden. Trafalger gives 9 of 10 Trafalger-listed states to Trump. While the Trafalger results will warm the hearts of Trump supporters, time will tell if this pollster will be right in 2020.
 
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muttly

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It appears Biden is compromised by the CCP. Isn't that a deal breaker for those anti Trumpers that pearl clutched over the Russian collusion hoax? Didn't think so.
Just phony outrage just to undermine Trump.
 

skyraider

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Polls are useless, imho.....but they do take up time on our news broadcast stations....I gotta go clean out some political stables,,,aah, there it is,,my pitchfork
 

Turtle

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How would they determine that?




Sent from my iPhone using EO Forums
From this article...

"Through Thursday, more than 640,000 Republicans statewide had cast ballots in person, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections. That’s 140,000 more in-person votes than Democrats have cast."

"Democrats hold a 570,000-vote advantage in returned mail ballots so far, with 1.61 million to Republicans' 1.04 million. At this point, Democrats still hold a commanding lead in the total number of votes cast, although that lead is likely to shrink considerably as Nov. 3 nears."


They obviously track and report it by county. But all that is, is who voted, their party affiliation. None of the votes have been counted yet. For all we know, every one of those 640,000 Republicans who voted in person might have cast their vote for Biden.
 

ATeam

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I hear that Trump is outperforming (from 2016) in many Florida counties with early voting.
That is entirely possible. Yes. And there are counties where Biden has that lead. But the question is not how the candidates are doing in this county or that now. It's how they will do statewide, and nationwide, after all the votes are counted.
 

ATeam

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From this article...

"Through Thursday, more than 640,000 Republicans statewide had cast ballots in person, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections. That’s 140,000 more in-person votes than Democrats have cast."

"Democrats hold a 570,000-vote advantage in returned mail ballots so far, with 1.61 million to Republicans' 1.04 million. At this point, Democrats still hold a commanding lead in the total number of votes cast, although that lead is likely to shrink considerably as Nov. 3 nears."


They obviously track and report it by county. But all that is, is who voted, their party affiliation. None of the votes have been counted yet. For all we know, every one of those 640,000 Republicans who voted in person might have cast their vote for Biden.
You are correct. I agree.
 

ATeam

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While I've been talking a lot about the polls, the difference between voter sentiment (which polling gauges) and valid votes actually cast should be noted. Factors affecting the latter include voter turnout, spoiled ballots, ballot submission deadlines, ballot design, polling place operations, and more. It is possible that while more Americans prefer Biden over Trump, the valid ballots actually cast and counted could produce a Trump win.

A recent example of submitted but uncounted mail-in ballots is provided by Florida's September primary election results. Of all mail-in ballots submitted, 1.5 percent were rejected because of missed deadlines or technical flaws. (source). This compares to the approximate 1.0 percent rejection rate in the 2016 and 2018 Florida general elections. (source) Note that general elections include independent voters while primary elections include Democratic and Republican voters only.

"Democrats cast 50 percent of absentee ballots in the primary and accounted for 47 percent of the mail-in votes that didn’t count, ..." [Professor Dan Smith said]. "Republicans, who for years dominated absentee voting and have an electorate familiar with the process, cast 34 percent of absentee ballots in the primary and made up 31 percent of mail-in votes that didn’t count." (source)

In other words, of all the FL Sept. primary election ballots mailed in, 1.5% were spoiled ballots that were not counted. That came to about 35,000 spoiled ballots. Of those, 47% of them (16,450 ballots) were submitted by registered Democrat voters, and 31% (10,850) were submitted by registered Republicans.

98.5 % of all mail-in ballots were deemed valid and counted. In recent general elections (2018, 2016), about 99% of all mail-in ballots have been deemed valid and counted.

Is the Florida system reliable?

Politico: "Florida Secretary of State Laurel Lee told local election supervisors this week that she was “very confident in our ability to administer an orderly vote-by-mail process with a high level of integrity.” The state has had vote-by-mail available for decades and no-excuse mail voting for nearly 20 years.

“This is a method of voting we are very familiar with,” Lee said.
 
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ATeam

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A continual theme in this forum is poll inaccuracy. Below is a snapshot of the polls as they stand to date. I share this not to argue about the accuracy or inaccuracy of today's polling, but to document what the polls say one month before the election. After the election, we can go back and see how valid or invalid the polls proved to be. Source: FiveThirtyEight website; a handy, quick-reference source for polling data.
4 Weeks Out: Biden +9.0
3 Weeks Out: Biden +10.4
2 Weeks Out: Biden +10.7
1 Week Out: Biden +9.4
1 Day Out:
 

Turtle

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In states with heavy early voting, which are overwhelmingly Democrat voters, ever since the second debate, the number one Google search term has been "Can I change my vote?"

The state where the search term was the most prevalent is is... Pennsylvania.

I don't know, I'm just guessing, but I think, "I will not ban fracking! PEEER-REEE-UUHHDD!" coupled with, "We'll work it out to replace it with renewable energy," might be a factor in this Voters Remorse. Hunter Biden's laptop and emails, which most Democrats heard of for the first time at the debate, might also be a factor.


In case you're wondering, in Connecticut, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, if you change your mind on who you wish to vote for, you can have a do-over.
 
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