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The Trump Card...

ATeam

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In states with heavy early voting, which are overwhelmingly Democrat voters, ever since the second debate, the number one Google search term has been "Can I change my vote?"

The state where the search term was the most prevalent is is... Pennsylvania.

I don't know, I'm just guessing, but I think, "I will not ban fracking! PEEER-REEE-UUHHDD!" coupled with, "We'll work it out to replace it with renewable energy," might be a factor in this Voters Remorse. Hunter Biden's laptop and emails, which most Democrats heard of for the first time at the debate, might also be a factor.


In case you're wondering, in Connecticut, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, if you change your mind on who you wish to vote for, you can have a do-over.
Voter remorse seems apparent in a number of states; as indicated by the number of states Trump won in 2016 that the polls now show Biden ahead. Black voter turnout is said to be much higher in 2020 than 2016, suggesting a different kind of remorse; remorse about not showing up to vote in 2016.

Voter remorse is also evident in a number of key groups that Trump carried in 2016 and seems to have lost now. His base has remained strongly loyal and enthusiastic. But that base never included the people who voted for Trump because they liked Hillary less. Trump has lost those folks. With little time, limited funds, and Trump's controversial rally strategy and remarks, there is little reason to believe Trump will win back those he lost.

Will sufficient early voters change their votes to offset those losses? Will the said-to-exist shy Trump voters prove to actually exist and turn out to surprise the pollsters once again? Will the virus-spreading Trump rallies win over enough undecided voters or win back enough lost voters to help Trump win? Will the state-by-state elections turn out to be so close that the Trump/Republican voter suppression and election litigation efforts prove successful? The answer to these questions is maybe. We'll know very soon.

BTW, regarding the Supreme Court ruling that Wisconsin absentee ballots cannot be counted if they are received after Election Day, I have no problem with that. The law says what the law says and the Court upheld the law. If Wisconsinites want more time to have mail-in ballots counted after Election Day, they need to change that law.

I like Florida's approach much better. Here, all ballots must be RECEIVED by 7pm Election Day to be counted. A wide time range exists for early voting to be done; by mail or in person. Vote-by-mail ballots received before Election Day are processed before Election Day, allowing the public to know on Election Day night what the final vote count is.

Those old enough to remember, remember the Florida fiasco during the Bush/Gore election. Florida's voting processes were greatly improved after that. The elections Diane and I have participated in since moving here years ago have been well run and trustworthy. Concerned about maintaining the integrity of that process, I volunteered this year to serve as a poll worker. My county election officials thanked me for the offer and said I was not needed because they already had an over-abundance of volunteers.

Even our County Sheriff is on board for election integrity. He has made it clear that his deputies are ready to enforce all the laws that apply to polling places.

I know Trump is gearing up to contest the results in numerous states. I doubt much will come of that in Florida. Good processes here.
 
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ATeam

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Now that Trump has established a 6-3 majority of conservative judges on the U.S. Supreme Court, I'm wondering; how many Christian conservative voters, who have never liked Trump's non-Christian ways, but voted for him to support their high-priority pro-life agenda, will decide that Trump is no longer needed since the Court is now firmly in conservative hands?

I heard that very sentiment from a conservative, lifelong, pro-life voter on a radio interview this morning. She has no time for Trump and is happy to vote for Biden now that the Court is set the way it is.
 
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coalminer

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Now that Trump has established a 6-3 majority of conservative judges on the U.S. Supreme Court, I'm wondering; how many Christian conservative voters, who have never liked Trump's non-Christian ways, but voted for him to support their high-priority pro-life agenda, will decide that Trump is no longer needed since the Court is now firmly in conservative hands?

I heard that very sentiment from a conservative, lifelong, pro-life voter on a radio interview this morning. She has no time for Trump and is happy to vote for Biden now that the Court is set the way it is.
Its funny you mentioned that, my wife was arguing (a waste of time I told her) with a group of people on facebook that the only reason they voted for Trump is because he is pro life. Its pretty funny that the Republicans and Trump especially are constantly saying they want to reduce laws, but they are all for making abortion illegal.

Pretty much every die hard conservative Republican I know is ok with abortion because to them its one less baby the government has to support.
 

Turtle

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Black voter turnout is said to be much higher in 2020 than 2016, suggesting a different kind of remorse; remorse about not showing up to vote in 2016.
Yep. Every indication says that black voter turnout for Trump in 2020 will be significantly higher than it was in 2016. The number of black votes Trump gets this time around will be eye popping.
Will the said-to-exist shy Trump voters prove to actually exist and turn out to surprise the pollsters once again?
They exist and the pollsters know it. Trump voters lying to pollsters has become the Great Dad Joke of the decade.
Will the virus-spreading Trump rallies win over enough undecided voters or win back enough lost voters to help Trump win?
That's a double loaded question that assumes far too much that's not in evidence to be taken seriously, so I won't address it.
Will the state-by-state elections turn out to be so close that the Trump/Republican voter suppression and election litigation efforts prove successful?
There is exactly the same amount of evidence of voter suppression as there is of voter fraud. So you might want to keep that in mind.
BTW, regarding the Supreme Court ruling that Wisconsin absentee ballots cannot be counted if they are received after Election Day, I have no problem with that. The law says what the law says and the Court upheld the law.
What's really disturbing about that SCOTUS ruling is, it was 5-3 decision. Which means three Supreme Court Justices couldn't manage to decipher the plainly written, unambiguous, black and white text of a law, and dissented with, "Yeah, but, yeah, but, feewings!"
I know Trump is gearing up to contest the results in numerous states. I doubt much will come of that in Florida. Good processes here.
A couple of things...
One, the number of highly experienced election and legal experts already deployed across the country by the Democrats dwarfs that of the Republicans. Republicans aren't even in the same league.

Two, never underestimate Broward County.
 
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coalminer

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Two, never underestimate Broward County.


Cant say what it was like before I moved to Broward, but requesting a mail in ballot and able to make sure it was received and counted seems to me like they have it figured out.
 

Turtle

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Less of a concern today as the truly incompetent supervisor of elections, who occupied that seat for a long time, has been replaced.
I wasn't aware of that, so that's good to know. But Broward is famous for vote counting problems. I distinctly remember problems in 1972 when I lived there as a kid. I was way too young to vote then, but I still recall trying to understand why it was so difficult for those people to, you know, count.

In any case, here is a picture of Judge Robert Rosenberg of the Broward County Canvassing Board, in the year 2000.
 

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Turtle

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This piece makes the case that the polls are wrong. It will be nice to review when we reviews the polls after the votes are counted.

Don't believe the polls - Trump is winning
That's a pretty good piece. One line from the article is one that cannot be overstated...

"In fact, Republicans have netted seven times as many registered Republican voters than Democrats since 2016. Similar trends are taking place in North Carolina and Florida."

One thing about newly registered voters is, they tend to vote at like a 90% clip.

In 2016 yard signs were a big indicator, because you saw Trump signs in places that were traditionally Democrat strongholds. The same is true this year. You see a few Biden signs where you expect to see them, but you see a really lot of Trump signs where you don't expect them.

Rally turnout is another indicator. Without a lot of enthusiasm, people don't vote. Enthusiasm is tempered this year by mass mailing of ballots to registered voters, which will make is more likely that even the most ambivalent voter will go ahead and return the ballot, something that democrats know full well.

But you see, all over the country, Trump vehicle parade rallies. They had 35,000 vehicles at a Latinos for Trump / anti-socialism parade rally in Miami a couple of weeks ago. I've run into several of them in Texas. Dave Ruben, famous gay, former lefty, documented one he happened upon in Beverly Hills the other day.

Actress Francia Raida happened upon one on the 405 and got triggered. All she did was happen upon a traffic jam on the Interstate, just like any other normal traffic jam on tykes 405. But boy did she get triggered. LOL


If you stroll the hallways of Twitter, YouTube and Facebook, you'll see massive numbers of people who have flat changed their minds about Trump, the media and the democrats. When they see the media has lied about the Fine People Hoax and the Mocking the Disabled Reporter Hoax, they start looking into what else they've been lied to about. A lot of those are in the #Walkaway movement. That's a really big movement. Dr Karlyn Borsenko, a famous and influential liberal SJW documented her #Walkaway, and eventual registering as a Republican, after attending a Trump rally. She she's opened the eyes a a large number of people.

There are blacks who see what Trump has done specifically for the blacks and have taken note, publicly, many in YouTube videos with hundreds of thousands of views and comments, and note how many of their friends feel the same way but won't go public... because... Kanye and Ice Cube. But they're real and there's a lot of them.

There are many other indicators that don't show up in polls that point to a big Trump win.
 
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Turtle

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Now that Trump has established a 6-3 majority of conservative judges on the U.S. Supreme Court, I'm wondering; how many Christian conservative voters, who have never liked Trump's non-Christian ways, but voted for him to support their high-priority pro-life agenda, will decide that Trump is no longer needed since the Court is now firmly in conservative hands?
About the same number of Democrats who were never fired up about Biden, but were going to vote for him anyway in order to get rid of Trump so that Biden could nominate someone. So now some segment of both sides have a moot situation on their hands.
 
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muttly

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A couple pictures from southern Macomb Co. while working.
20201023_220012.jpg20201023_220012.jpg
 

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muttly

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You hardly ever hear the Fake News Media mention Trafalgar polls. They were the closest last time in getting it right here in Michigan.
Why wouldn't the media report on them if they proved to be accurate instead of the ones that got it so wrong last time?
Nevermind, I know the answer. It doesn't fit the narrative that they want to shape with those faulty polls.
I also was listening to Steve Bannon's podcast today. He had a reputable pollster on. He said Michigan didn't look like a six point lead for Biden. His polling here in Democratic leaning Macomb County was at least 56 % for Trump.
Oakland county not as much and the two counties even out each other. That seems about right regarding what I'm seeing on the ground here with the yard signs that grow a few more each few days. That and the daily Trump supporter mini rallies at intersections as well as door knockers.
Anyway, Trafalgar has Trump in the lead here in Michigan. No other poll has Trump leading.
IMG_20201030_185722.jpg
 

ATeam

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Have you thought ahead to the election night results, or the following days if the vote is close and it takes time to determine the result? A lot of people are emotionally engaged in the election outcome.

If your side loses, how will you feel?
If your side wins, how will you feel?
If your side loses, how will you treat people on the other side?
If your side loses, how would you like to be treated by them?
If your side wins, how will you treat people on the other side?
If your side wins, how would you like to be treated by them?
 

ATeam

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Lol. Yes they mention them. And they often call them crazy.
I think not, Muttly. I'm posting the poll numbers I am for the reason stated. I'm genuinely interested in comparing the poll results to the Election Day results after the results are known. I've been reading a lot about the polls and pollsters along the way. Because it is an outlier, and presents a case different than most other pollsters, Trafalger is often mentioned, and it is discussed in a serious way. I have not seen a single writer or commentator call the Trafalger pollsters crazy.
 

ATeam

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While early voting continues in some states, and the final numbers are not yet known, the early voting turnout (in person and by mail) has been astounding. While the numbers are not yet known, one thing is. The voter suppression efforts conducted by some have not worked. Voter enthusiasm is high and people are showing up to vote.
 

Turtle

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Biden and Obama held a rally in Flint, MI at a drive-in theater where about 100 cars were in attendance.

Meanwhile, 37,000 in Butler, PA for Trump.
 

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