Sign up for The Wire Newsletter!

The Trump Card...

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
Have you thought ahead to the election night results, or the following days if the vote is close and it takes time to determine the result? A lot of people are emotionally engaged in the election outcome.

If your side loses, how will you feel?
If your side wins, how will you feel?
If your side loses, how will you treat people on the other side?
If your side loses, how would you like to be treated by them?
If your side wins, how will you treat people on the other side?
If your side wins, how would you like to be treated by them?
The past 4 years I've heard anti Trump coworkers bad mouth him and openly wish he would die. So there is that.
But if Trump wins, I'll keep to myself and not say a word.
If Trump loses, I'll do the same.
If he loses though the only thing left to focus on will be to plan on moving out to a rural area. Because the suburbs will eventually fall apart and crime will be more and more prevalent. It won't be overnight, but a few years from now. What you'll see soon though is an increase of the random crimes right around the corner in your neighborhood because criminals will feel emboldened. The Dems leadership, and office holders in communities won't clamp down on crime and hold criminals responsible because of political cowardice. They'll be more empowered to do more crime and wreck havoc on suburban neighborhoods and it will proceed on a downward spiral.
I think not, Muttly. I'm posting the poll numbers I am for the reason stated. I'm genuinely interested in comparing the poll results to the Election Day results after the results are known. I've been reading a lot about the polls and pollsters along the way. Because it is an outlier, and presents a case different than most other pollsters, Trafalger is often mentioned, and it is discussed in a serious way. I have not seen a single writer or commentator call the Trafalger pollsters crazy.
He's( the guy who runs it, Cahaly)claiming he is getting hammered by other news and polling outfits.
I think not, Muttly. I'm posting the poll numbers I am for the reason stated. I'm genuinely interested in comparing the poll results to the Election Day results after the results are known. I've been reading a lot about the polls and pollsters along the way. Because it is an outlier, and presents a case different than most other pollsters, Trafalger is often mentioned, and it is discussed in a serious way. I have not seen a single writer or commentator call the Trafalger pollsters crazy.
I think Trafalgar is most accurate in identifying the silent Trump vote in their polls. They predicted Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as for Trump in 2016. 3 key battleground states that all other polls had comfortable victories for Clinton.
As bad as the battleground state Presidential polls have been, you would think there would be repercussions for them for being so awful.
The National polls are less important to me.
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
I went to a Trump rally today in Macomb County Mi.
Washington twp. to be exact. North of Detroit several miles. Freezing cold and extremely windy.
A few thousand showed up at a facility that was the campaigns 3rd choice. The other two apparently were not allowed by the Governor of Michigan. Have to say was impressed that Trump was able to power thru on stage for over an hour in lousy weather conditions. And then I get home and a couple hours later he is in Iowa with very similar conditions giving another over hour speech.
He still has the fire in the belly to want to be President. And looks like he is outworking his opponent soundly just like 4 years ago.
The enthusiasm and momentum are on his side as well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RoadTime and davekc

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Owner/Operator
Offline
Here's the thing about most of the polls. It's mostly about money. Biden had no money, until he garnered massive leads in the polls. People don't like to donate to a candidate who is way behind in polling. They'll donate to a winner, though.

And what do campaigns spend these donations on? Basic campaign expenses like security, travel, salaries, sure, but a large chunk of spent on advertising in the media. And it's no surprise that media companies partner up with polling companies to sponsor polls which will net them advertising dollars.

It's also why predicting that the last week of the campaigning will see the polls so a dramatic tightening. They will point to something happening in the news in the waning days of the election that caused massive numbers of people to change their minds and undecideds to decide. The thing in the news isn't required to do that, all you need to do is be able to point to it. And if you can point to more than one thing, even better. Hunter's laptop, Trump outpacing Biden in campaign stops, Ivanka or there fundraising in record numbers, the COVID catch-all. Then, right there a week or days before the election, the polling companies can save face by saying, "Things just tightened up there at the end, but we were accurate within the margin of error!"
 
  • Like
Reactions: muttly

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
It looked like it. I just watched it. I was surprised he talked for a hour. Brrrr


Sent from my iPhone using EO Forums
I was too. The stage was positioned where he was talking into a 30 mile mph headwind. I actually felt bad for him because we were standing on the ground bundled up. Some people couldn't take the cold and had to leave. I would have been completely ok with him cutting the speech short for his own good. Hypothermia type weather.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RoadTime

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Offline
Lol. Yes they mention them. And they often call them crazy.
OK. In response to my post, you cited ONE case where someone called Mr. Cahaly "crazy." That's one. One case is not "often." Unless you can show numerous other examples where Cahaly and/or Trafalger were called crazy, it is simply not true that "they often call them crazy."

I stand corrected. It is no longer the case that I have not seen a single news organization or commentator call Trafalger crazy. With that exception, it remains the case that numerous commentators and news organizations mention Trafalger polls name them and discuss them without calling them crazy. On the contrary, they do so while citing the Trafalger methodology that proved accurate in 2016. Overall, Trafalger is not being treated with disrespect.
 
Last edited:

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Offline
A continual theme in this forum is poll inaccuracy. Below is a snapshot of the polls as they stand to date. I share this not to argue about the accuracy or inaccuracy of today's polling, but to document what the polls say one month before the election. After the election, we can go back and see how valid or invalid the polls proved to be. Source: FiveThirtyEight website; a handy, quick-reference source for polling data.
4 Weeks Out: Biden +9.0
3 Weeks Out: Biden +10.4
2 Weeks Out: Biden +10.7
1 Week Out: Biden +9.4
1 Day Out: Biden + 8.5
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Offline
With a high emphasis on this year's vote count, and a somewhat popular idea that the votes should be quickly counted, it should be noted that it is not just common but the normal way of things for votes to be counted, not instantly, but over the next several days following Election Day.

While the major news organizations have their "decision desks" and like to declare winners before all the votes are counted, the real result is never known until election officials in their respective jurisdictions certify the count as complete. Where races are close, ballots are disputed, and/or recounts occur, it can be weeks before the final results are known.

That's not because there is something wrong with the system. It's because election officials are (with rare exceptions) acting competently and in good faith to make sure every vote is proper and properly counted.
 
  • Like
Reactions: danthewolf00

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
OK. In response to my post, you cited ONE case where someone called Mr. Cahaly "crazy." That's one. One case is not "often." Unless you can show numerous other examples where Cahaly and/or Trafalger were called crazy, it is simply not true that "they often call them crazy."

I stand corrected. It is no longer the case that I have not seen a single news organization or commentator call Trafalger crazy. With that exception, it remains the case that numerous commentators and news organizations mention Trafalger polls name them and discuss them without calling them crazy. On the contrary, they do so while citing the Trafalger methodology that proved accurate in 2016. Overall, Trafalger is not being treated with disrespect.
Ok not crazy, just not a real pollster, laughable, ridiculous...
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
So I hear that businesses are boarding up in case of the unthinkable that Trump will win the election and that there will be vandalism, looting, etc.
My prediction: There will be rioting if Trump wins and there will be rioting if Biden wins. And it will be done by the same people no matter who wins. The rioters will be the Biden voters.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RoadTime

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
So Trump did 5 rallies yesterday and is on his 4th one today. Actually he finished his 5th rally early this morning about 1 am so he will be doing 6 rallies today. I watched his last rally in Miami late last night. I think the fact that he has a ton of experience in tv production all those years and in public speaking has served him well. Giving multiple speeches in various weather conditions. His current rally in Kenosha, his mic crapped out and he transitioned to a mic that he has to hold while talking. Events don't often go smoothly but just continues to power thru like a pro.
I don't even know if it's necessary to hold these rallies. It shows he is up in Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and tied in Wisconsin, and has the momentum while Biden is reportedly fading.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RoadTime

dalscott

Expert Expediter
Offline
So I hear that businesses are boarding up in case of the unthinkable that Trump will win the election and that there will be vandalism, looting, etc.
My prediction: There will be rioting if Trump wins and there will be rioting if Biden wins. And it will be done by the same people no matter who wins. The rioters will be the Biden voters.

You are probably right about the rioting but what proof do you have that those idiots are Biden voters? Did you pole them?
Funny, i haven’t heard of any macho red-neck idiots in pickup trucks with Biden signs snarling traffic and trying to run a Trump bus off the road.


Sent from my iPhone using EO Forums
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ragman

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Offline
FiveThirtyEight finalized its polling tally at 12:14 a.m. Election Day

4 Weeks Out: Biden +9.0
3 Weeks Out: Biden +10.4
2 Weeks Out: Biden +10.7
1 Week Out: Biden +9.4
1 Day Out: Biden + 8.5
Final Tally: Biden + 8.4

Above, 11 days ago, I listed the FiveThirtyEight tally of 13 so-called battleground states. Here's their final battleground states tally:

STATE, (Electoral Votes), Candidate, Prior Tally/Present Tally

AZ (11) Biden +3.5/+2.6
FL (29) Biden +3.8/+2.5
GA (16) Biden +0.9/+1.2
IA (6) Biden +1.0/+1.3
MI (16) Biden +8.0/+7.9
MN (10) Biden +7.9/+9.2
NV (6) Biden +6.6/+5.3
NH (4) Biden +11.5/+11.1
NC (15) Biden +2.9/+1.8
OH (18) Trump +1.0/+0.8
PA (20) Biden +6.1/+4.7
TX (38) Trump +0.5/+1.1
WI (10) Biden +6.6/+8.4

It is worth noting over 100 million Americans have already cast their votes through early voting. Many of those votes were cast days or weeks ago, when the poll numbers were different than the final tally FiveThirtyEight presents today.

While the 2020 tally shows Trump ahead in only two of the 13 battleground states, Trump won 10 of those states in 2016. The 2016 Trump/Clinton margin is shown below.

AZ (11) Trump +3.5
FL (29) Trump +1.2
GA (16) Trump +5.1
IA (6) Trump +9.4
MI (16) Trump +0.3
MN (10) Clinton +1.5
NV (6) Clinton +2.4
NH (4) Clinton +0.3
NC (15) Trump +3.6
OH (18) Trump +8.1
PA (20) Trump +0.7
TX (38) Trump +9.0
WI (10) Trump +0.7
 
Last edited:

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
You are probably right about the rioting but what proof do you have that those idiots are Biden voters? Did you pole them?
Funny, i haven’t heard of any macho red-neck idiots in pickup trucks with Biden signs snarling traffic and trying to run a Trump bus off the road.


Sent from my iPhone using EO Forums
Fake News
 
Top