Sign up for The Wire Newsletter!

The Trump Card...

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
I just coincidentally saw the fellow from Trafalgar on the Laura Ingraham show last night. He claims there is the "shy Trump voter" and their polling method is able to detect it in their polling surveys. He's predicting a mid 270 electoral victory for Trump. A little too close for comfort for me, but I'll take the W.
 
Last edited:

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Online
Just last night, in this post, I questioned the wisdom of Trump discouraging his voters from voting early by mail. It seems the Trump campaign now agrees. This morning, CBS reported:

"President Trump's campaign has launched a social media ad blitz aimed at encouraging supporters to vote by mail, a move that follows months of Mr. Trump's open attempts to discredit the practice and tie it to election fraud. One ad has the headline "VOTE LIKE PRESIDENT TRUMP!" and includes the text, "TIME IS RUNNING OUT! Request your ballot today." The image shows a close-up of an absentee ballot. The ad, a reference to the absentee ballot the president sent for this year's Florida Republican primary, is appearing on Facebook in Florida and North Carolina. Another ad includes the text "Absentee ballots are GOOD. I need you to get your application and send in your absentee ballot IMMEDIATELY." The campaign spent at least $2.5 million on the twelve ads that had the broadest reach, according to Facebook data, targeting at least 11 million voters. Other Facebook ads from Mr. Trump's campaign about getting an absentee ballot have also targeted Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Georgia and Pennsylvania." Full Story

The simple truth is Trump is getting crushed by Biden in early voting, absolutely crushed (see the numbers here). And the Trump campaign seems to have figured this out.

So now they are doing a full 180 degree reversal of their vote-by-mail fraud and abuse message. Now they are embracing vote-by-mail and spending millions of last-minute dollars to promote it. While they may try to not embarrass themselves in this reversal by drawing a distinction between absentee ballots and vote-by-mail ballots, there is no meaningful difference. Absentee voting IS vote by mail. Vote by mail IS absentee voting. In both cases, the ballots are mailed in or placed in official drop boxes. In both cases they are secured and carefully validated by trustworthy election officials.

The problem for the Trump campaign is time is running out. It varies by state, but the deadlines to request absentee/vote-by-mail ballots are rapidly approaching. If the targeted Republican voters do not quickly respond, they'll miss the boat and must instead vote in person on Election Day. And why would they be quick to respond? They've been hearing for months that vote-by-mail is rife with fraud, and that the system is not reliable. Many have been telling others they plan on voting at the polls on Election Day. It will take more than a quick Facebook spend to neutralize the old message and replace it with the new one.

In addition to the problems with that I mentioned in a post above (discouraged voter) there is the weather to consider too. Where a snowstorm or rainy day happens, a certain number of Democrat, Republican and independent voters will stay home. Given the huge lead Democrats have in early voting, bad weather conveys a distinct advantage to them, since the votes that are in are the ones that will be counted.

I always thought Trump was unwise to undermine the integrity of the voting process. The process belongs to Republicans too. Railing against massive voter fraud that does not exist may prove to be not just something that undermines trust in our democracy, but also a gift to Biden that Biden could not have produced himself.
 

Attachments

  • mail.PNG
    mail.PNG
    19.2 KB · Views: 3
Last edited:

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Online
Coincidence that I mentioned that Trafalgar was an outlier from 4 years ago in my previous post and then they coincidently just came out with a poll recently that again appears to be an outlier

OK. I understand now. Thank you for the explanation.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Online
"Could you imagine if I lose?" Trump said on Friday. "I'm not going to feel so good. Maybe I'll have to leave the country, I don't know."

If Trump loses the election, he also loses the ability to keep prosecutors at bay by using the power of the presidency. If Trump flees the U.S. to avoid prosecution, where would he go? I think Russia would be delighted to take him in, in return for the national security secrets Trump can trade.
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Owner/Operator
Offline
"Could you imagine if I lose?" Trump said on Friday. "I'm not going to feel so good. Maybe I'll have to leave the country, I don't know."

If Trump loses the election, he also loses the ability to keep prosecutors at bay by using the power of the presidency. If Trump flees the U.S. to avoid prosecution, where would he go? I think Russia would be delighted to take him in, in return for the national security secrets Trump can trade.
It's been fairly evident for years, in particular the last 4 years, but the reactions of the MSM and The Left to Trump's statement above prove beyond any and all doubt that Democrats have no measurable sense of humor whatsoever.
 
  • Like
Reactions: davekc and muttly

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
Just last night, in this post, I questioned the wisdom of Trump discouraging his voters from voting early by mail. It seems the Trump campaign now agrees. This morning, CBS reported:

"President Trump's campaign has launched a social media ad blitz aimed at encouraging supporters to vote by mail, a move that follows months of Mr. Trump's open attempts to discredit the practice and tie it to election fraud. One ad has the headline "VOTE LIKE PRESIDENT TRUMP!" and includes the text, "TIME IS RUNNING OUT! Request your ballot today." The image shows a close-up of an absentee ballot. The ad, a reference to the absentee ballot the president sent for this year's Florida Republican primary, is appearing on Facebook in Florida and North Carolina. Another ad includes the text "Absentee ballots are GOOD. I need you to get your application and send in your absentee ballot IMMEDIATELY." The campaign spent at least $2.5 million on the twelve ads that had the broadest reach, according to Facebook data, targeting at least 11 million voters. Other Facebook ads from Mr. Trump's campaign about getting an absentee ballot have also targeted Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Georgia and Pennsylvania." Full Story

The simple truth is Trump is getting crushed by Biden in early voting, absolutely crushed (see the numbers here). And the Trump campaign seems to have figured this out.

So now they are doing a full 180 degree reversal of their vote-by-mail fraud and abuse message. Now they are embracing vote-by-mail and spending millions of last-minute dollars to promote it. While they may try to not embarrass themselves in this reversal by drawing a distinction between absentee ballots and vote-by-mail ballots, there is no meaningful difference. Absentee voting IS vote by mail. Vote by mail IS absentee voting. In both cases, the ballots are mailed in or placed in official drop boxes. In both cases they are secured and carefully validated by trustworthy election officials.

The problem for the Trump campaign is time is running out. It varies by state, but the deadlines to request absentee/vote-by-mail ballots are rapidly approaching. If the targeted Republican voters do not quickly respond, they'll miss the boat and must instead vote in person on Election Day. And why would they be quick to respond? They've been hearing for months that vote-by-mail is rife with fraud, and that the system is not reliable. Many have been telling others they plan on voting at the polls on Election Day. It will take more than a quick Facebook spend to neutralize the old message and replace it with the new one.

In addition to the problems with that I mentioned in a post above (discouraged voter) there is the weather to consider too. Where a snowstorm or rainy day happens, a certain number of Democrat, Republican and independent voters will stay home. Given the huge lead Democrats have in early voting, bad weather conveys a distinct advantage to them, since the votes that are in are the ones that will be counted.

I always thought Trump was unwise to undermine the integrity of the voting process. The process belongs to Republicans too. Railing against massive voter fraud that does not exist may prove to be not just something that undermines trust in our democracy, but also a gift to Biden that Biden could not have produced himself.
There is a 13 percent voter enthusiasm gap in Trumps favor this time similar to 4 years ago, according to polls. Are they wrong about this? We shall see. Some indicators though: Long wait lines at the Trump rallies. If they'll show up for a rally, bank on them showing up to vote election day.
People buying more Trump cookies than Biden ones at a Philly bakery. And at CVS, Trump bobbleheads are flying off the shelves while the Biden ones are collecting dust and being sold at discount.
 
  • Like
Reactions: davekc and Turtle

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
Wolf Blitzer going after Pelosi?
I thought I was watching Fox news o_O

It shows you how rarely Dems like her are challenged about anything substantive by the news media. Pelosi gets a rare tough question and she goes Defcon 1 on the interviewer.
Dems got it good.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RoadTime and Turtle

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
I spent my afternoon with gathering of people for a Trump rally. Just about 40 people or so holding signs at an intersection here in Macomb County. It was organized by the local Trump for President office. About 10 people also went in vehicles to go knock on doors. They apparently do this multiple times a week. I don't know if there is any comparable Biden effort around here. I havent seen it. I also don't know if the Trump organizer efforts will make a difference in the vote, but at least there is an attempt at a ground game by diligent Trump supporters.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Online
I spent my afternoon with gathering of people for a Trump rally. Just about 40 people or so holding signs at an intersection here in Macomb County. It was organized by the local Trump for President office. About 10 people also went in vehicles to go knock on doors. They apparently do this multiple times a week. I don't know if there is any comparable Biden effort around here. I havent seen it. I also don't know if the Trump organizer efforts will make a difference in the vote, but at least there is an attempt at a ground game by diligent Trump supporters.

It's the same in our community. Trump supporters regularly gather on a busy intersection to wave their Trump flags and happily receive friendly horn honks and thumbs-up signs. There are no Biden flag wavers and few Biden lawn signs to be seen (partly because they are frequently stolen when displayed, Biden supporter complain). Our flag waving Trump supporters are enjoying every minute of it. If you want to have a good time, wave a Trump flag in Trump country. Will such displays change the votes of what few undecided voters remain? In these parts, it will be difficult to tell because the area is strong for Trump already.

Our county in 2016:
Clinton: 26.3
Trump: 71.4

Statewide, the Florida polling summary shows Biden up by 3.4% today. Trump will likely beat Biden in our area, but not by the huge margin he enjoyed in 2016. As a politician, Trump has a track record now, and he's lost a lot of the support he once enjoyed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RoadTime

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Owner/Operator
Offline
Keep in mind that, like I said earlier, the campaigns' internal polling is going to be accurate because that's the entire purpose of internal polls. Joe Biden's campaign manager, Jen O'Malley Dillon said just one day ago that Biden in not leading by double digits nationwide, and it's not leading by 3 percentage points or whatever in battleground states. Their internal polling shows something very different. And warned supporters that, "Donald Trump could still win this race."

That's not something a campaign manager with a lead greater than the margin of error says. Ever.
 
  • Like
Reactions: muttly

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Online
That's not something a campaign manager with a lead greater than the margin of error says. Ever.

Actually, it may be the very thing the Biden campaign manager needs to say to keep Democratic voter complacency from setting in. For weeks, Democrats have been hearing about Biden's healthy lead in the polls. That may move some Democratic voters to stay home on Election Day since Biden is presumed to win anyway. That happened in 2016. The Biden campaign needs to keep their voters worried about a Trump victory so they will be more inclined to get out and vote.

Regarding internal polls themselves, search what is written about them. They're bunk.
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Offline
It's the same in our community. Trump supporters regularly gather on a busy intersection to wave their Trump flags and happily receive friendly horn honks and thumbs-up signs. There are no Biden flag wavers and few Biden lawn signs to be seen (partly because they are frequently stolen when displayed, Biden supporter complain). Our flag waving Trump supporters are enjoying every minute of it. If you want to have a good time, wave a Trump flag in Trump country. Will such displays change the votes of what few undecided voters remain? In these parts, it will be difficult to tell because the area is strong for Trump already.

Our county in 2016:
Clinton: 26.3
Trump: 71.4

Statewide, the Florida polling summary shows Biden up by 3.4% today. Trump will likely beat Biden in our area, but not by the huge margin he enjoyed in 2016. As a politician, Trump has a track record now, and he's lost a lot of the support he once enjoyed.
What evidence do you have that he has less support in your area than last time?
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Owner/Operator
Offline
Regarding internal polls themselves, search what is written about them. They're bunk.
I suppose. Yet campaigns make their decisions on internal polling, but external polling. If external polls were accurate, they would accurately predict where candidates would spend their money and their time.

For example, external polling averages show Biden with a commanding 7 point lead in Pennsylvania. If that were accurate, Biden and Company would be spending little if any time there, and even less money. But look what's happening. Biden had had events there 3 times in the last two weeks, the campaign is throwing cash at television advertising in the state, and if that's not enough, Obama campaigns in PA this week for Biden.

You don't do any of that stuff if you have a 7 point lead. You do it, however, if you within a point either way.

Trump's had a lot of events there, too. Not just him, but his suurogates, as well. It would seem the internal polling for Biden and Trump are telling both campaigns the same thing.

Another indicator that internal polls are more accurate than external polls is the rolling changes in Party Affiliation (Gallup tracks that weekly). It's the percentage of people who consider themselves Democrat or Republican, and the percentage of Independents who lean one way or the other. Currently, Democrats are down 2 over previous tracking, Republicans are about the same, and Independents are leaning Republican by 4. That means people are leaving the Democrat Party and not necessarily for the Republican Party, but rather for Independents and are leaning Right. That flies in the face of public polling, but matches up closely with the hints about what internal polling shows.

All of the public polls will tighten up by election day, so they can save face and hang on to a modicum of credibility.

In the meantime, pay attention to where the campaigns put their time and money. Those are the closest races, regardless of what the external polling shows.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Online
A continual theme in this forum is poll inaccuracy. Below is a snapshot of the polls as they stand to date. I share this not to argue about the accuracy or inaccuracy of today's polling, but to document what the polls say one month before the election. After the election, we can go back and see how valid or invalid the polls proved to be. Source: FiveThirtyEight website; a handy, quick-reference source for polling data.

4 Weeks Out: Biden + 9.0
3 Weeks Out: Biden +10.4
2 Weeks Out: Biden +10.7
1 Week Out:
1 Day Out:
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Online
I have personally worked a few campaigns and have been close to other operatives who worked other campaigns. There was a time when I saw fit to question the accuracy of a poll, and because of my position in the campaign, was able to talk to the director of this major newspaper's polling department. He and I had several in-depth conversations about polling in general and his in particular. That does not make me an expert bit I do have some insight into how campaigns use polls.

Yet campaigns make their decisions on internal polling, ...

Not entirely. The campaigns that have the money to spend on internal polling use them for a variety of reasons. In some cases, the reason has to do with the campaign manager's job security. If the candidate does not like what he or she sees in the public polling, or if the staff is demoralized by what the external polls say, some managers will hire a company to do a private poll (internal poll), which will be structured to produce the result the candidate and staff want to see. A happy candidate does not fire the campaign manager. A motivated staff keeps working.

If external polls were accurate, they would accurately predict where candidates would spend their money and their time.

That would be true if poll numbers were the only thing to consider, but that is never the case. A host of variables determine where candidates spend their money and time. External and internal polling is certainly considered, but so are the subjective judgements of of the candidate and the campaign leadership team. And those can be flawed.

For example, right now, and for the past couple weeks, the polls show Trump behind Biden in numerous issues and several key states. How is Trump spending his time? At rallies where he speaks not to voters who may change their minds to vote for Trump, but to voters who long ago made up their minds. He is doing nothing to demonstrate leadership in Washington (like working to get another stimulus package through Congress). He's not holding highly visible meetings with suburban women (who the polls say he is losing) or other key groups. Instead, he's doing his rally stand-up routine to entertain his base and nurture his narcissism. He's not letting the polls guide his time management decisions. He's basking in the praise of his supporters. Flawed judgement.

For example, external polling averages show Biden with a commanding 7 point lead in Pennsylvania. If that were accurate, Biden and Company would be spending little if any time there, and even less money. But look what's happening. Biden had had events there 3 times in the last two weeks, the campaign is throwing cash at television advertising in the state, and if that's not enough, Obama campaigns in PA this week for Biden.

That too may be a case of flawed judgement. I have no special insights into the Biden campaign but an equally plausible explanation is Biden went to Hillary school. To this day, Democrats are warning against the complacency that contributed to Hillary's 2016 defeat. Biden may be working PA hard because PA is a big electoral vote state and he does not want to make Hillary's Michigan mistake. Today, the winning percentage of people say they are voting for Biden. But will they actually turn out to vote? The Democrats learned a hard lesson in 2016. Take nothing for granted.

You don't do any of that stuff if you have a 7 point lead. You do it, however, if you within a point either way.

That would be true if polling was the only factor in play. But as I said above, there are many factors in play.

Trump's had a lot of events there, too. Not just him, but his suurogates, as well. It would seem the internal polling for Biden and Trump are telling both campaigns the same thing.

Again, I have no inside knowledge of the Biden or Trump campaign (and neither do you). It could well be that both Trump and Biden disbelieve the polls and instead simply have their eyes on the big electoral college prize PA is. If polls alone drove campaign decisions, Trump would not go to CA. But he went. Why did he do that? He did it because of another factor there in play, the ability to raise funds from rich Trump supporters there.

Another indicator that internal polls are more accurate than external polls is the rolling changes in Party Affiliation (Gallup tracks that weekly). It's the percentage of people who consider themselves Democrat or Republican, and the percentage of Independents who lean one way or the other. Currently, Democrats are down 2 over previous tracking, Republicans are about the same, and Independents are leaning Republican by 4. That means people are leaving the Democrat Party and not necessarily for the Republican Party, but rather for Independents and are leaning Right. That flies in the face of public polling, but matches up closely with the hints about what internal polling shows.

You're drawing a distinction without a difference. There are lots of Republicans who STRONGLY identify themselves as Republicans, but are voting for Biden. In 2016, there were lots of Democrats who strongly identified themselves as Democrats, but voted for Trump. While it can be generally presumed that a person who identifies ones self with one party or another will vote for that party's presidential candidate, that is not always the case. It is an unfounded leap to suggest that this general presumption somehow validates the accuracy of internal polls.

All of the public polls will tighten up by election day, so they can save face and hang on to a modicum of credibility.

If the polls are going to tighten, they better hurry. In the last three weeks, they have widened in Biden's favor, and only two weeks remain before Election Day. A summary review of the polls in 2016 show no pollster face saving is necessary. National polls measure public opinion and voter intent, not the electoral college result. In 2016 the polls (taken as a whole) were spot-on predicting Hillary's popular vote win (see this post). In two weeks, plus a few days for final vote counting, we'll know how the pollsters did this time around.
 

coalminer

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Offline
Well here in Florida they are both spending massive amounts of money on advertising, the typical commercial break from a show is just alternating trump and biden commercials along with all of the other political ads. I cant wait until November 4th and this is all over.....
 
Top