... Below is a snapshot of the polls as they stand to date. It is from FiveThirtyEight, an entity that reports data from numerous polls. I share this not to argue about the accuracy or inaccuracy of today's polling, but to document what the polls say ... before the election. After the election, we can go back and see how valid or invalid the polls proved to be.
Wanna hear the really, REALLY big funny about this ACB confirmation hearing?
Dems are losing their minds saying that ACB will strike down Obamacare. The case (California v Texas) that comes before the Court one week after the election could do that, because it deals with severability. Meaning, if one part of the law gets struck down (individual mandate) does that mean the rest of the law also gets struck down as unconstitutional?
Yeah, it does mean that. And the Dems don't want her on the Court to cast a 5-4 vote to strike down Obamacare.
If she's not confirmed, you could have a 4-4 ruling. If that happens, the lower court ruling stands.
The lower court ruling? Non-severability, which means since the individual mandate was struck down, the rest of the law must be struck down. Bye, bye Obamacare.
So if she's on the court, there's at least a small chance she could vote to keep Obamacare. If she's not on the court, there is ZERO chance of saving Obamacare.
So that's pretty funny.
I have not heard of Operation Chaos until you mentioned it. A Google search shows Operation Chaos was an effort to get Republicans to vote for Bernie Sanders in the open Democratic Primary in S.C. While the idea got a bit of press and was promoted by Trump and Limbaugh, Republicans did not respond. Operation Chaos was a bust.Remember operation chaos? How many of those Trump supporters who get called are going to say they are voting for Biden?
Several things. One, it's hilarious. Especially when Democrats lose their mind when they thought they were going to win and end up losing.Ignoring the ethical and Biblical prohibitions about lying, and presuming -- for the purpose of discussion -- that lying has become OK, what purpose does lying to a pollster serve?
Several things. One, it's hilarious. Especially when Democrats lose their mind when they thought they were going to win and end up losing.
Two, lack of trust in phone polls as truly being anonymous. People don't want their phone numbers associated with the recorded responses. They don't want their responses to become public.
The biggest one, though, is if their information does become public, it's not safe to be a public Trump supporter. There's a fear of reprisal and related detrimental impact to their financial, social and family lives should their political opinions become publicly known. And there's that whole getting shot in the face thing.
Just like golf.Politics will rot your soul if you stay in it too long, I said.
This is good. It shows the poll results about 3 weeks out from Election Day, 2016 (Nov 8). The closer a poll is taken to Election Day, the more accurate it can be presumed to be as something that projects the outcome. The 2016 data posted above showed Clinton leading in most polls by zero to 14%. Above, I'm citing an all-polls average cited by FiveThirtyEight. Do you have 2016 polling data from two weeks, one week and one day out?
Any chance of civility in politics went out the window with the Russia Collusion Hoax coup attempt, and the Fine People Hoax.
Just from memory I believe the battleground state polls showed Clinton winning by at least a few points. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Michigan, where I live, had polls from Detroit News/WDIV that showed Clinton winning comfortably. Current polls from them again show Biden with a decent lead. I've kept this screenshot on my phone for a few years now. I think it is funny because it had two political analysts tweeting to each other about Trump's chances of winning Michigan. And basically gave him no chance. Yet he won the state and the polls did not capture the entire amount of Trump voters.This is good. It shows the poll results about 3 weeks out from Election Day, 2016 (Nov 8). The closer a poll is taken to Election Day, the more accurate it can be presumed to be as something that projects the outcome. The 2016 data posted above showed Clinton leading in most polls by zero to 14%. Above, I'm citing an all-polls average cited by FiveThirtyEight. Do you have 2016 polling data from two weeks, one week and one day out?
As I look at the data you shared the polls accurately forecast the result but the numbers were of a bit. On Election Day, and after all the votes were counted, Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points. The polls you cited do not forecast the Electoral College, which made Trump the winner. They forecast the national popular vote.
Because Clinton won the popular vote and Trump won the Electoral College vote, pundits and pollsters are paying much closer attention to the Electoral College this time around. My intent is to talk about the accuracy of the polls, not about the winner of the Electoral College. That said, it would be a relatively easy matter to dive deeper into the polling data state by state. I have not done this but my guess would be that such a dive would have accurately forecast Trump's Electoral College win.
Clinton supporters were not mindful of the Electoral College in 2016. They were content to take comfort in the national polling data that you cited above. Biden supporters are VERY aware of the Electoral College now
Here are the final polls running up to election day.