The Trump Card...

Turtle

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Retired Expediter
The business climate would improve if those irrational fears were laid to rest.
The media has no interest in laying any of those irrational fears to rest. You know that, right? It's not a part of their business model. The recent reporting shows that beyond all doubt. Gathering in large numbers (and even in small numbers) to protest the lockdown orders? Very bad. Will cause COVID-19 to spread.
Gathering in large numbers to protest in favor of BLM? Very good. Zero chance of spreading COVID-19.
A Trump rally? Indoors? OMG The worst thing that could happen. Will spread COVID-19 like wildfire. It's so bad that even hours before the numbers were officially counted, Tulsa on Saturday morning reported a record number of new virus cases for the day.
 
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Turtle

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Retired Expediter
Most of it due to the Wuhan Virus concerns. But some think it was due to Kookoo Pops.
There were a lot of factors involved. I think the virus played the biggest role. But the near-certainty of rioting was a factor. The mayor clearing the plaza and those camping out in line didn't help. The National Guard being deployed to Tulsa didn't help. The mayor reversed his call on the curfew on Friday night, but for some reason that wasn't nearly as widely reported as the original curfew order. But one factor that didn't play a role was enthusiasm for Trump.
 
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Turtle

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Retired Expediter
How do you know that? What indicator(s)?
Comments from people who went to the rally, comments from people who were scattered from the plaza who wanted to go but cited the National Guard and the possibility of rioting as their reason for not returning to attend the rally, and the comments from people who really wanted to go but cited virus concerns and the possibility of rioting as their reason for not attending, with some even specifically saying that not attending doesn't dampen their enthusiasm for Trumo.
 
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muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
What Turtle said, plus the crowd was reportedly younger than a usual Trump rally so that may indicate the virus concern from older people who would have attended.
As for enthusiasm, there were reportedly millions of people watching on various platforms. Well over 10 million.
Meanwhile, Biden:
IMG_20200621_163058.jpg
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
The media has no interest in laying any of those irrational fears to rest. You know that, right? It's not a part of their business model. The recent reporting shows that beyond all doubt. Gathering in large numbers (and even in small numbers) to protest the lockdown orders? Very bad. Will cause COVID-19 to spread.
Gathering in large numbers to protest in favor of BLM? Very good. Zero chance of spreading COVID-19.
A Trump rally? Indoors? OMG The worst thing that could happen. Will spread COVID-19 like wildfire. It's so bad that even hours before the numbers were officially counted, Tulsa on Saturday morning reported a record number of new virus cases for the day.

I have come to put little stock in COVID-19 projections as they are often wide of the mark. Early on, hundreds of thousands of deaths were forecast for Florida. We've had deaths but not anywhere close to those numbers. No shortage of hospital beds, ICU beds or ventilators developed. So when the experts on TV warn of the COVID-19 risks in connection with shutdown protests, BLM protests and the Tulsa rally, I'm content to wait and see.

i know of no data that has come in regarding the shutdown protests and COVID-19. Those protests were small in number compared to BLM and Tulsa, so we probably won't get any data from those. It's too early to get data from the Tulsa attendees. Meaningful data is coming from participants in the large Minneapolis BLM protests, and the news is good.

Talking about Minneapolis protesters, this story says, "HealthPartners, one of the largest health care providers in Minnesota, also reported to the state that it had tested about 8,500 people who indicated that attendance at a mass gathering was the reason they wanted a test. Among them, 0.99 percent tested positive." The early indications are that these large, outdoor protests were not super-spreader events.

The notable difference between Minneapolis and Tulsa is the venue. in Minneapolis, people were out in the streets. In Tulsa, they were indoors. Also, SOME Minneapolis protesters wore masks. It will be difficult to quantify exactly how many, or even a ballpark percentage. I've seen reports that most wore masks but the footage I saw suggests otherwise. It is clear that very few Tulsa attendees wore masks.

I am very interested to see, not what the news reporting will be, but what the data will be that emerges from the Tulsa participants. As I said above, I sincerely hope the Tulsa event will be shown to produce little or no virus spread. In interviews I saw, the Tulsa participants said they had no concern about the COVID-19 risks said to exist at this rally. I'm hoping their opinions prove to be justified.

The experts have warned against attending large events. Countless business conventions, sports events and political rallies have been canceled as a result. Now with the Tulsa rally, we have an actual, large-scale, indoor event that actually happened; and with it something with to gauge the veracity of the expert's large-event warnings and forecasts.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Yeah, well, we've learned two things in the last six months:

1. You have to look at the data and listen to the experts.

2. The data is wildly unreliable and the experts routinely lie.

We've learned a lot more than that, Turtle, and you know it. The coronavirus is a real thing that affects expediters and all other businesses of all types. Every one of us has to operate in a world in which the coronavirus is now a front-and-center feature. We're all learning as we go, obtaining the best data we can, making the best decisions we can, and taking the best actions we can.

To that end, I find the CIDRAP website especially helpful and balanced in providing expert information and guidance. Cynicism is easy but unhelpful. I prefer wisdom and seek it as best I can. For those who won't listen to anyone before running that person through your political filter, the CIDRAP director is Dr. Osterholm. You can read his bio and evaluate his politics here.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
I want to add something about the early good news coming out of Minneapolis (see post above). While the early test results are encouraging, it's important to note that the infection curve is exponential. While the incubation period us up to two weeks, it takes additional time for the virus to develop in additional hosts. A Minneapolis curve spike, if any, will need more than two weeks to be seen. If the infection rate remains at present levels a full month after the Minneapolis protests, we can probably say with confidence that those protests were not super-spreader events.
 

Turtle

Administrator
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Retired Expediter
We've learned a lot more than that, Turtle, and you know it.
Yes, I do know that. Which is why I didn't say we've learned ONLY two things in the last 6 months. But anyone who hasn't learned those two particular things is operating on incomplete information and fairie tales.

One prominent health expert says the virus is weakening and will probably just disappear within a couple of months. Another one says the virus is just as strong as ever and will be here until we have a vaccine. I don't believe either one of them.

As for my own filters, that consists of an N95 mask whenever I'm not in the house. When I go to the doctor, over at the hospital I add a pair of monogoggles. Walmart prescriptions are delivered to my car, and groceries are delivered to the house.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
He gone. There's the door. Leave your keys and the computer.

Yeah ... and Audrey Strauss - the person who was actually running all the invest into Cheeto’s allies (and Trump Org) - is now the Acting ...

And Chairman Senator Ladybits has signaled that NY’s Senators essentially have a veto on whoever is nominated as a replacement being reported out of the SJC.

Yup - that “firing” right there is sure one smart move ...

 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
OTOH, beware of whatever (fake) “October Surprise” Low Barr is trying to cook up in concert with Durham ...




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Turtle

Administrator
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Retired Expediter
What if it's not fake? What if it's true? OMG. No, I won't believe it.
<ansert woman in green from inauguration screaming No!>
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
It will be fake ... just like his announcement of Berman’s resignation ... and his (mis)characterizations of the Mueller Report ...


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Turtle

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Retired Expediter
It will be fake ... just like his announcement of Berman’s resignation ... and his (mis)characterizations of the Mueller Report ...
Except his announcement on Berman wasn't fake, he simply tried to give him an out to save face after Berman had refused other positions. And even Mueller said Barr didn't mischaracterize his report, said there was no daylight between them.
 
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Turtle

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Retired Expediter
In other words...... Lie!
Sure. Not really a major one, though. Kinda like when someone quits their job to spend more time with their children, or they're gonna get fired to spend more time with their children. Nobody thinks of that as a big, fat, hairy deception. It's saving face. It'a an "out" with a little dignity attached. It's like when Eric Holder quit for "personal" reasons, even though he and everyone else in the administration knew his days were numbered. Did Holder lie? Yes. Is it a lie to get worked up over? No.
 
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