Will Trump's Take on Trade Be Boost or Bust for Fleets?
- Thread starter OntarioVanMan
- Start date
In the long run, whether we import products or make them here, the freight's still gonna get moved.
That's just it. They assume a negative on freight slowing out of Mexico. Well duh. Then they don't replace it with anything and the tears start to flow. 
The reality is the freight still moves, just from different locations. Another MSM crisis. Meanwhile, business has already figured it out at historic stock market levels. Again, follow the money.
The reality is the freight still moves, just from different locations. Another MSM crisis. Meanwhile, business has already figured it out at historic stock market levels. Again, follow the money.
will it? thats assuming the the auto world bends over and improves things here and not move production right out of the country....thats if things go extremely wrong....
If the plants get moved here and the parts makers are right next door...so much for trucks...
“The U.S. is not the only country in this world -- why are we clinging to them like an umbilical cord?”
“They can raise the tallest wall in the world, in fact they should. They can keep their burgers and fast food, their junk culture,” he said, peering out from behind stacks of magazines, coloring books and cigarette packets. “I think most of us feel the same way -- this is an opportunity. We are such a big country that this will help us activate our domestic economy.”
Give Trump credit, he added. “This man did something right. He united us.”
“They can raise the tallest wall in the world, in fact they should. They can keep their burgers and fast food, their junk culture,” he said, peering out from behind stacks of magazines, coloring books and cigarette packets. “I think most of us feel the same way -- this is an opportunity. We are such a big country that this will help us activate our domestic economy.”
Give Trump credit, he added. “This man did something right. He united us.”
One of those, Mexico really needs us more than we need them. Trump is banking on it literally for the wall payment.
Well some in Mexico don't believe that... they can sell their goods elsewhere
The economics don't work to sell elsewhere. Many things would have to change for them to get anywhere close. The closest would be south of them, and we see how well that is going. lol
Exactly. Plus, a significant percentage of "their" goods are manufactured by US companies. We get a lot of off-season fruits and vegetables, from Mexico (Mexico dominates our fruit and vegetable imports by a wide margin - 69% of vegetable imports and 37% of fruit imports), but we can also get all of that from Argentina, Chile, Peru and Brazil (and Canada), or simply grow most of it here in the Rio Grande Valley and in the San Joaquin Valley in California (assuming California will trade with the US). It's mostly avocados and tomatoes. California alone could easily absorb the extra demand for avocados, since they have more than 1/3 of their Valley farm acreage vacant for experimentation and for ramping up production if needed. And the tomatoes can be grown in Texas and Arizona, or in a hothouse (I abhor hothouse tomatoes, though).
A couple or three days ago CNN's Money had a really snarky article called Here's What Else We Import from Mexico, Mr Trump. Top of the list was $21.5 billion worth of motor vehicles, 8% of our imports from Mexico. Next was the $51.6 billion in auto parts e import, 19% of Mexican imports. But they didn't stop there. Mexico is our third largest supplier of goods overall, so there. We also import computer monitors, insulated wire and electric generators. And, and, and, major appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners and centrifuges.
The thing is, every one of those things on that list are imported from Mexico solely because American companies moved their manufacturing to Mexico. Mexico on their own doesn't make any of that stuff. Zero.
As a footnote, the state that 40% of the parts in a typical Mexican product originated in the US. They don't really mention that if manufacturing and assembly were moved back here, those 40% would never be exported to Mexico in the first place, except as finished products to be sold.
In the long run, the only thing a trade war or a stiff tariff would really hurt the US on is with Corona. Modelo Especial. and Dos Equis beer, and Cholula hot sauce. <snort>
Ford still plans to do what Donald Trump has criticized: build small cars in Mexico. It's just saving itself money by shoehorning Focus production into its plant in Hermosillo instead of sinking $1.6 billion into a new plant in San Luis Potosi to build cars that have lost ground to light trucks. CEO Mark Fields said last week. With small cars sales declining there will be no new plant built in the US.
If there is a trade war with Mexico, 90.3% of the advantages of moving to Mexico (for most manufacturers) suddenly become moot, and moving back to the US will become the cost effective solution if they want to sell their products in the US. The vast difference in wages between the US and Mexico, a significant cost savings, is largely offset by increased transportation and supply chain costs. Even a 20% tariff disappears that difference.
there are hidden costs of employing US workers....SS contribution OHSA contributions unemployment contributions and health tax...Labour and transportation to a certain degree is a tax write off...not to mention Health and safety laws to comply with...at one time it was like approx. a 23% cost to hire a person...when costs were factored in...
IMO if theses CEO's bring some jobs back there will be a bigger rush to robotics then ever before nulling any effect of the move in job numbers, but something like this doesn't appear over night...
Total labor costs, including wages and benefits, average 129 pesos (US$8) an hour in Mexico, compared to $58 in the US for GM and $38 at Volkswagen’s factory in Tennessee, the lowest hourly cost in the US, according to the Center for Automotive Research.
That by my calculator is almost 80%...thats a whack of transportation costs...Trump will really have to anti up the pot to overcome the differences
IMO if theses CEO's bring some jobs back there will be a bigger rush to robotics then ever before nulling any effect of the move in job numbers, but something like this doesn't appear over night...
Total labor costs, including wages and benefits, average 129 pesos (US$8) an hour in Mexico, compared to $58 in the US for GM and $38 at Volkswagen’s factory in Tennessee, the lowest hourly cost in the US, according to the Center for Automotive Research.
That by my calculator is almost 80%...thats a whack of transportation costs...Trump will really have to anti up the pot to overcome the differences
Last edited:
If using your example, it is still a win-win for the US. If because of high labor, we move on to advanced robotics, it is still more advantageous to do it here and keep the money here. Under that scenario, there is no advantage to do anything in Mexico.
On a side note. We can use the closed Mexican factories to house refugees from Syria and elsewhere. Again, everyone wins.
On a side note. We can use the closed Mexican factories to house refugees from Syria and elsewhere. Again, everyone wins.
On a side note. We can use the closed Mexican factories to house refugees from Syria and elsewhere. Again, everyone wins.
"Whitman said private, high-level meetings are taking place as the Canadians attempt to convince the Trump administration of the dangers of disrupting these highly integrated markets"
Lol. If he turns his attention to the Canada side of NAFTA, I guess I can be a local driver again. Or does my American autonomous truck count as a US citizen?
Lol. If he turns his attention to the Canada side of NAFTA, I guess I can be a local driver again. Or does my American autonomous truck count as a US citizen?
what?...that makes no sense Dave....those factories are in Mexico....dohIf using your example, it is still a win-win for the US. If because of high labor, we move on to advanced robotics, it is still more advantageous to do it here and keep the money here. Under that scenario, there is no advantage to do anything in Mexico.
On a side note. We can use the closed Mexican factories to house refugees from Syria and elsewhere. Again, everyone wins.
DannyD
Veteran Expediter
I got a true laugh out of that one. I signed in- forgot password and all- just to come on here and give it a like.If using your example, it is still a win-win for the US. If because of high labor, we move on to advanced robotics, it is still more advantageous to do it here and keep the money here. Under that scenario, there is no advantage to do anything in Mexico.
On a side note. We can use the closed Mexican factories to house refugees from Syria and elsewhere. Again, everyone wins.