The Trump Card...

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Headline today: Antifa supporter plotted armed attack on pro-Trump protesters at Florida capitol: FBI
Google it. Maybe extremists on both sides should be allowed to eliminate each other. Dumb and dumber.
In the news in recent days, I've seen tens of thousands of Trump supporters and just two Antifa supporters. If you wish to pit Antifa v. MAGA, it would not be a long fight. It's pretty clear who the MAGA people are. Antifa is more mysterious; so much so that I think a lot of it is made up by MAGA. Am I wrong about this? Is Antifa more than an imaginary bogey man Trump people use to rile themselves and others up?

I see people on Fox News eager to blame Antifa for the insurrection but they never point out more than a person or two said to be Antifa-aligned.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
So let's play this out a bit.

Suppose, for the purposes of discussion, that the Senate proceeds with the impeachment trial and convicts Trump, and then takes the second vote and disqualifies him from holding future office. And/or suppose, for the purposes of discussion, that Trump is charged with sedition, insurrection, rebellion or other such thing, and found guilty by a jury in a court of law; which, presumably, would disqualify Trump from holding future office under the 14th Amendment.

Also suppose that two or three years from now, when the presidential campaigns for 2024 begin, Trump is mentally and physically healthy, he has retained a good portion of his base of fervent supporters, and his $200 million campaign war chest remains intact or even grows. Also suppose Trump's present iron grip on the Republican party, and thus the Republican Party nomination, remains intact.

With or without such good fortune, I know of nothing that could stop Trump from declaring he is a candidate for president and proceeding with a campaign. A number of red states would likely grant him ballot access without complaint. Blue states may act to keep Trump off the ballot, citing impeachment and conviction by Congress or conviction in a court of law. But Trump can sue to reverse that (may or may not succeed) and continue to raise funds and campaign as a write-in candidate where ballot access has been denied.

The laws do not say a convicted-and-disqualified Trump cannot seek public office. They say he cannot hold public office. Regardless of impeachment and court outcomes regarding Trump's eligibility to hold office, he remains free to raise as much hell as ever by running for president in the 2024 election.

If Trump actually won the election in the above hypothetical scenario, the Supreme Court would likely get involved then if not before. If Trump was indeed convicted for disqualifying crimes by Congress or a court, I would think the Supreme Court would rule he cannot be seated; in which case we could thank Donald Trump once again for bringing America into a constitutional crisis.

The above scenario is unlikely. It assumes too many things have to go right for a greatly diminished Trump over an extended period of time. In the near and continuing future, Trump is going to be referred to as "defendant" far more than "candidate."

Yup, I get your point. Also got it when you made it in a previous post, or were at least headed that direction.

He has the ability to create a lot of chaos, no doubt about it. At least at this point in time.

With regard to the law and him running, I'm not so sure that it's quite as cut and dried as you seem to think.

I'm no expert on campaign finance law, and I have at best only a rudimentary acquaintance with some of it, but what would you call raising money to run for an office that you can't legally hold ?

As far as the one point made in your last sentence above, I think that is highly likely.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
In the news in recent days, I've seen tens of thousands of Trump supporters and just two Antifa supporters. If you wish to pit Antifa v. MAGA, it would not be a long fight. It's pretty clear who the MAGA people are. Antifa is more mysterious; so much so that I think a lot of it is made up by MAGA. Am I wrong about this?

No, you aren't wrong.

Is Antifa more than an imaginary bogey man Trump people use to rile themselves and others up?

It's largely part of the Faux News agitprop operation to radicalize the right.

I see people on Fox News eager to blame Antifa for the insurrection but they never point out more than a person or two said to be Antifa-aligned.

Bingo.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
I'm no expert on campaign finance law, and I have at best only a rudimentary acquaintance with some of it, but what would you call raising money to run for an office that you can't legally hold ?
He's already doing it with a fund now established. The fine-print disclosure language of the fund allows Trump to spend most of the money any way he wants to. He raised the money telling donors it would be used to fight legal battles relating to election certification. He could use the same fund to receive money raised with the message that he MAY run. The laws are pretty loose about what kind of PACs, exploratory committees, campaign committees and other such funds can be set up.

Regarding the big fund he has set up now, funded from the pockets from his MAGA fans, I expect the reports required in the future will show a lot of that money going to shell consulting companies. That satisfies the reporting requirement and allows Trump to siphon the money out of the fund via the shell companies to himself. The reports will show very few actual legal expenses incurred in challenging the election results in court.

It is reported that Trump made over 60 court challenges regarding the election. Most of them were not taken up by the courts or quickly dismissed. The expenses of such cases are low compared to one that would be actually argued. As you and I agreed above, Trump is very good at what he does in certain domains. This is a case where he saw a way to raise A LOT of money with a misleading message and keep most of it for himself. I believe this will become evident when the public reports are filed.

No crime committed here. The fine print in his fundraising appeal said donors grant him wide discretion as to how the money is spent.
 
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RLENT

Veteran Expediter
He's already doing it with a fund now established. The fine-print disclosure language of the fund allows Trump to spend most of the money any way he wants to. He raised the money telling donors it would be used to fight legal battles relating to election certification. He could use the same fund to receive money raised with the message that he MAY run. The laws are pretty loose about what kind of PACs, exploratory committees, campaign committees and other such funds can be set up.

Regarding the big fund he has set up now, funded from the pockets from his MAGA fans, I expect the reports required in the future will show a lot of that money going to shell consulting companies. That satisfies the reporting requirement and allows Trump to siphon the money out of the fund via the shell companies to himself. The reports will show very few actual legal expenses incurred in challenging the election results in court.

It is reported that Trump made over 60 court challenges regarding the election. Most of them were not taken up by the courts or quickly dismissed. The expenses of such cases are low compared to one that would be actually argued. As you and I agreed above, Trump is very good at what he does in certain domains. This is a case where he saw a way to raise A LOT of money with a misleading message and keep most of it for himself. I believe this will become evident when the public reports are filed.

No crime committed here. The fine print in his fundraising appeal said donors grant him wide discretion as to how the money is spent.

The question then becomes, what follows once his donors realize they were taken for ride ?

My guess is that there will be more fallout and he's already begun to lose support, but it's hard to quantify exactly how much.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Protest-wise, the weekend was quiet:

"Crowds of only a dozen or two demonstrated at some boarded-up, cordoned-off statehouses, while the streets in many other capital cities remained empty. Some protesters said they were there to back President Donald Trump. Others said they had instead come to voice their support for gun rights or decry government overreach." (Source)
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
The question then becomes, what follows once his donors realize they were taken for ride ?
My guess is that there will be more fallout and he's already begun to lose support, but it's hard to quantify exactly how much.
I'm not sure many of his donors will feel they were taken for a ride. They gave money to Trump when they wanted him to have it. They are not likely to follow the money to see what actually happened to it. It will be interesting to see how easy or hard it becomes for Trump to raise money in the future.

I think many MAGA people do not yet appreciate how much Trump's influence and importance will diminish once he is out of office.

For many, part of the draw was strongman Trump. He was the president, the big boss, the winner, the highly successful businessman, the stable genius, the one who was several steps ahead of everyone else in the masterful chess game he plays, the political leader who did not talk like a politician, the man who could get things done. For many, that will always remain true. They will always see Trump is their brilliant hero. But for many others, the bloom is coming off the rose.

A good number of people who maintained close ties to Trump did so not because he was Trump, but because he was president. When Trump is no longer president, those "supporters" will fade away. They opposed him early in the 2016 campaign. They aligned with him when he won. They will abandon him when he leaves office.

Some are still hanging in believing Trump will yet find a way to retain the presidency. When they see Biden move into the White House, some of those will realize their error and their support will fade.

Those who enjoyed the buzz Trump's many tweets gave them will simply stop thinking about Trump several times a day like they used to. As that happens, their interests will shift to other things.

There are dozens of ways people's connection to and support of Trump will fade. That's partly because when he is no longer president, Trump's ability to cultivate those connections is greatly diminished.

The prime media spotlight will not follow Trump to Florida. It will remain on the sitting president as it always has.

Trump will remain in the news for a long time but not like before. After Wednesday, he can no longer issue executive orders. If Trump's lifetime Twitter ban remains in place, Republican fear of the mean tweet will fade. Trump will no longer have the power over government regulations he had before. He will no longer be able to use the White House and other iconic symbols as backdrops to emphasize his relevance. No more Marine 1. No more Air Force 1. No more people begging to get on his calendar in an attempt to lobby for one policy move or another. No more pressing a button on his desk to have a Diet Coke delivered to him, unless he wants to pay someone to do that. No more generals to instantly appear if he wants to talk to or be seen with them. No more TV cameras showing him in charge of cabinet meetings. No more greats standing before him as he hangs medals on them. No more visits from foreign heads of state. No more lots of things he previously enjoyed, and his supporters also enjoyed.
 
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skyraider

Veteran Expediter
US Navy
In the news in recent days, I've seen tens of thousands of Trump supporters and just two Antifa supporters. If you wish to pit Antifa v. MAGA, it would not be a long fight. It's pretty clear who the MAGA people are. Antifa is more mysterious; so much so that I think a lot of it is made up by MAGA. Am I wrong about this? Is Antifa more than an imaginary bogey man Trump people use to rile themselves and others up?
Im waiting for someone to find a Trump look alike and run him for office,,,could be freaky,lol
 

skyraider

Veteran Expediter
US Navy

Extremely concerning ... with very good reason.

The inevitable blowback from this will be increased scrutiny and vetting for those in law enforcement and armed services which have rightwing political inclinations.

Soldiers will wind up shooting each other ,,,remember they all look alike and the rouge soldiers would have the advantage,,,gets complicated fast..
 

Ragman

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Must be a left wing conspiracy...
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