The Trump Card...

Moot

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
Pelosi: "I still make the offer: let's work together on a mutually agreeable date, as the original date was, mutually agreeable, so we can welcome him properly to the Capitol," she said.

This is beginning to sound like the Paris Peace Accords. What next, the height of the dais?
 

Moot

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
"...so we can welcome him properly to the Capitol,"

This sounds a bit ominous coming from Pelosi.
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
The other day some guy in India scaled a 25 foot wall, and was promptly eaten by lions.

Imagine a big, beautiful wall from sea to shining sea. And then about 500 feet inside that wall, a second wall.

In between the walls, lions. Lots of lions.

Just spitballin' here.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
I just watched video of the FBI arrest of Roger Stone and I'm appalled.

What in the world is the FBI doing converging on his house with multiple men with in tactical gear with heavy weapons in the early-morning dark. Stone is not on the run. He is not a violent man. One agent in a business suit during business hours would have been sufficient to make the arrest. And how did the press learn that such an arrest was being made? Clearly the FBI is leaking it schedule and putting on a show and we can count on the media to play this footage to no end. Had they called Stone and asked him to turn himself in, he likely would have. This is physically nauseating for me to view.

Per the charging document, it seems there is good cause to charge Stone and process him through the justice system, but there is no cause to put on an arrest show like this ... way, way, way over the top.
 

Moot

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
I just watched video of the FBI arrest of Roger Stone and I'm appalled.

What in the world is the FBI doing converging on his house with multiple men with in tactical gear with heavy weapons in the early-morning dark. Stone is not on the run. He is not a violent man. One agent in a business suit during business hours would have been sufficient to make the arrest. And how did the press learn that such an arrest was being made? Clearly the FBI is leaking it schedule and putting on a show and we can count on the media to play this footage to no end. Had they called Stone and asked him to turn himself in, he likely would have. This is physically nauseating for me to view.

Per the charging document, it seems there is good cause to charge Stone and process him through the justice system, but there is no cause to put on an arrest show like this ... way, way, way over the top.
Sure makes for better viewing than some stiff in a suit ringing his doorbell at 10:00 in the morning.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
After his court appearance today, Stone said he is innocent and will beat the charges in court. He is charged with lying to Congress, witness tampering and interfering with an investigation.

One thing we have seen from Mueller is he does not take someone to court on frivolous grounds and without strong evidence to back his case. Everyone he has gotten into court so far has either pleaded guilty or been found guilty. Now it's Stone's turn. He says he'll beat the charges but with Muller's track record so far, I'm not so sure.

None of the charges mention Trump. While many are reading between the lines and looking at all the angles to suggest this has something to do with Trump, that's an unsubstantiated leap. The document is what it is and it is foolish to try to turn it into something more. More may come out later but we'll have to wait to see about that.

The press will talk for days about this but it's mostly talk about nothing until more, if anything, develops.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Breitbart News headline (exactly as published there):

GOVERNMENT OPEN ...
... AND BORDER
NO WALL
STILL NO STOU!


A casual recall of the recent headlines includes:
  • Trump friend Stone arrested
  • Cohen subpoenaed
  • Numerous tone-deaf statements by Trump and administration officials indicating zero empathy, heartlessness, toward government workers going without paychecks.
  • Trump agrees with Pelosi and delays state of union address (STOU)
  • Supreme Court declines to take up Trump's DACA case
  • Shutdown messes up millions of lives (800,000 workers, families, their communities) and polls show Trump owns the shutdown more than Dems or congress.
  • North Korea dictator expresses "great satisfaction" with letter from Trump (contents unknown to public).
  • Trump lawyer Giuliani scrambles to walk back yet another Trump-harmful statement.
There is probably more such news, this is just off the top of my head.

How much more of this will the Senate Republicans who have the power to cast the decisive impeachment votes be willing to bear?

Regarding Pelosi, she is learning quickly that simply telling Trump no is enough to get him to back down. No, Mr. President, you can't give your state of the union speech in the U.S. House." Trump says, "OK." and "No, Mr. President, you can't use the shutdown as leverage to get your wall." Trump says, "OK."

How many more Breitbart headlines will the Trump base tolerate before they decide not that they are tired of winning but tired of Trump?
 
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muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
In three weeks if nothing is settled he will probably declare a national emergency. I don't see the government shut down again.
Find as much money as he can too. Like 15 billion for the border and walls.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
In three weeks if nothing is settled he will probably declare a national emergency.
Which will undoubtedly get hung up in court.

I think that's correct. I was not aware of the national emergency powers a president has (beyond martial law) until it was recently talked about by Trump. I was also not aware that national emergencies have been declared numerous times by previous presidents for various reasons previously provided for by law.

While I agree that Trump has the authority to declare a national emergency, his ability to subsequently act questionable. It will be immediately challenged in court as others say. A Trump border national emergency has not been previously provided for by law as other declared emergencies have. That's why those emergencies got little news coverage. They were previously contemplated by the laws that authorized them.

Also, It's not like there is a pot of money just waiting around to be dedicated to the wall. When funds are allocated to agencies, they must be spent in that way. Anytime a pot of money exists, a constituency develops behind it to perpetuate the program or agency. The people who get jobs or other benefits from the money fight like hell to keep it and get more of it in the next allocation round. This phenomenon is called a tail. Each program grows a tail and it is the tail's nature to try to wag the dog.

Trump may have identified money here and there that he feels may be reallocated to the wall but it remains to be seen if he can legally do it. And it remains to be seen how fierce and effective the opposition will be from people, organizations and lobbyists who want to keep the money working for their own special interests.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Responding to the Trump tweet posted by muttly above, in which Trump says "... this was in no way a concession." The Breitbart headline (also above) and other conservative media voices see it differently:

Ann Coulter: "“Good news for George Herbert Walker Bush: As of today, he is no longer the biggest wimp ever to serve as President of the United States.”

Drudge: "No Wall Funds"

Cernovich: “Trump is a broken man” “It's over for him.” "I'm disgusted. There's no other way to put it," "I don't like to be lied to. Just say I'm not going to build the wall. I'm a coward. I don't have what it takes."

Michael Malice: Apparently a wall isn't as good as a cave."

Washington Examiner: "Trump Blinks"

More optimistically:

Hannity: “Some of you say ‘He didn’t get any money for the wall. No, he didn’t, but he’s going to.”

Limbaugh: “We’ll just have see what happens in the next three weeks.”

As Nixon did, Trump will retain some support until the bitter end. The question is how much of his base must erode before just 20 Senate Republicans who have the power to cast the decisive impeachment votes will let go of Trump and indicate a willingness to cast those votes?

These Republican Senators heard loud and clear about the pain their constituents suffered because of the shutdown. That in turn causes pain for the Senators. It must seem like a cruel joke to them and on them that Trump agreed yesterday to the same terms he could have agreed to over a month ago to avoid the shutdown and pain.

In recent weeks, Trump said he would sign a Senate bill that would have kept the government open and the Senators passed it by unanimous consent. Trump then flip-flopped to reject the bill when Coulter, Limbaugh and House conservatives rose against him. He then made it clear he would not cave, only to do exactly that when Pelosi said no to the wall.

With the Trump base opinion leaders taking diverging paths, how many additional Trump whiplashes will the Republican senators be willing to sustain? With names like Wimp, broken man and Cave Man now being voiced by conservatives, how much longer will the Trump base hold?
 
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Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
There is no question that the president has the full discretion to declare a national emergency. And there are more than 130 statutory provisions at the president's command under a declared emergency. And he's free to utilize any or all of them while under an emergency, even if they are completely unrelated to the emergency. The president could declare a national emergency in case of a hurricane, and then sieze complete control of the internet, for example. He could declare an emergency because of a drought, and the seize control of the internet, or freeze and even sieze private vehicles at sea, or sieze private bank accounts.

Every time a president has acted upon these statutory powers they have been challenged in court, and only once successfully, when Truman tried to nationalize steel mills during the Korean War. Every other time the lower courts and/or the Supreme Court deferred to the president.

SCOTUS has already ruled that the president has many inherent powers as the commander in chief that can go well beyond the military, especially when related to national security. The premise of the national emergency declaration, and the powers given the president, is the government’s ordinary powers might be insufficient in a crisis, and amending the law to provide greater ones might be too slow and cumbersome. Emergency powers are meant to give the government a temporary boost until the emergency passes or there is time to change the law through normal legislative processes.

If the president declares a national emergency, historical precedent says the SCOTUS will defer to the president, and tell Congress to go through the normal legislative process to limit presidential power of they don't like what he's doing. The places where Trump is talking about taking money from is not from already-allocated money designated for specific projects or purposes, but rather from money that is been set aside waiting for someone in the administration to decide whether or not to spend it. It's unlikely that SCOTUS will intervene.

Thus far Trump has been reluctant to use national emergency powers for the wall, despite the current state of the porous border security betting a national security emergency. He knows that every president has pushed the limits of their power, and every subsequent president has taken that same power and pushed it further. Trump can well imagine, say, a President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declaring an income inequality national emergency and redistributing wealth any way she sees fit.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
There is no question that the president has the full discretion to declare a national emergency.

I agree.

But the problem for Trump is his word is no good. Many people believed that before. His base is beginning to believe it now. Sure, he can say he can declare a national emergency but does anyone believe him any more? He may even declare a national emergency and say he's doing it to build the wall, but again, who will believe him?

Conservative opinion leaders are peeling off. How long until the base follows?
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Late Saturday afternoon, following Trumps Friday announcement that he will sign the bill to end the shutdown without gaining anything in return, the weakness of Trump's position was illustrated by Trump himself:

1. His only tweet of note said, "I wish people would read or listen to my words on the Border Wall. This was in no way a concession,"

2. While he has been talking about declaring a national emergency for weeks, he has not done so. If it's an emergency, what is he waiting for?
 
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