The Defining Issue of 2024

[ATeam]

Yes, This is the Defining Issue of 2024

Abortion Rights is the Democratic playbook in 2024. Republicans will try to make it about Biden, economy, southern border, book banning, America first, etc. But the Democrats already know abortion rights gets people to the polls. Democrats will not permit Republicans to dodge this issue; an issue that is far more personal than things more abstract or distant.

 

[ATeam]

An Example

Here's another example of how the abortion rights energy is placing Republican candidates and incumbents in an uphill battle. With the abortion-rights initiative now on the Colorado ballot, it's tough-sledding for Republicans.

"Now, the next bomb to drop on Boebert's campaign is Colorado's looming ballot initiatives for 2024, which are likely to turn Democratic-leaning voters out in droves. There is a ballot initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the CO Constitution - favored by a large majority of voters and [Boebert opponent] Frisch but opposed by Boebert. These initiatives have also turned out young voters in huge numbers already in the most conservative states like Kansas and Ohio." (Source)

 

[muttly]

2024 is a presidential election. Trump will be on the ballot, coattails etc. The Left can TikTok abortion target only so many young people squirreled away at their colleges and sheltered from the real life exposure to the Bidenomics chitshow. Their parents are living it and are not too happy with the situation,
The polls are revealing their displeasure too.

POLL: President Trump's Margins In The Rust Belt Jump Against Biden, Taking 14 Point Lead In Ohio

POLL: President Trump's Margins In The Rust Belt Jump Against Joe Biden, Taking 14 Point Lead In Ohio

rumble.com

 

[ATeam]

How to Energize Abortion Rights Voters

When the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and left it to the states to decide their own abortion laws, and after several red states adopted abortion restrictions that many considered extreme and draconian, abortion rights advocates predicted (correctly as it turned out) that health-care horror stories would emerge that illustrate why reproductive freedom is beneficial.

The Kate Cox case in Texas is a case in point. At present, this woman, who wants to have more children, is being forced by Texas authorities to put her future fertility at risk by not getting an abortion, but by carrying her dead or dying fetus to term. While it is a medical fact that this fetus is not viable, and carrying it puts the mother's health and fertility at risk, the ill-advised laws imposed by right-wing, anti-abortion extremest are producing insane results.

These results are infuriating and mobilizing abortion-rights activists even more. Results like these are guaranteed to produce high turnout of abortion-rights voters in 2024 and in special elections before then.

 

[muttly]

Trump as the nominee will energize voters to turn out for him and provide coattails down ballot. There may be those that are motivated by the abortion issue, but many more are motivated in changing the direction of Bidenomics.

 

[ATeam]

Trump as the nominee will energize voters to turn out for him and provide coattails down ballot. There may be those that are motivated by the abortion issue, but many more are motivated in changing the direction of Bidenomics.

Trump's coattails down ballot have been weak in the past. No red wave in 2022. Lost US Senate. Numerous special elections going blue where races are competitive.

 

[muttly]

Trump's coattails down ballot have been weak in the past. No red wave in 2022. Lost US Senate. Numerous special elections going blue where races are competitive.

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022 or the special elections. Look at how he did with coattails in 2016 and 2020.

 

[ATeam]

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022 or the special elections. Look at how he did with coattails in 2016 and 2020.

The political ground has shifted after Roe v. Wade was overturned and right-wing, anti-abortion extremists imposed and continue to impose their draconian rules.

 

[muttly]

The political ground has shifted after Roe v. Wade was overturned and right-wing, anti-abortion extremists imposed and continue to impose their draconian rules.

It has also shifted due to Bidenomics among other things that his regime has done.

 

[ATeam]

It has also shifted due to Bidenomics among other things that his regime has done.

But the DEFINING issue of 2024 is abortion rights. That's the issue already making a difference in turnout and election results. That will remain so even with Trump on the ballot. Trump is responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. At this point neither you nor I can do anything more than make our respective predictions. We'll have to wait until November, 2024 to see what actually happens.

In the meantime, you can continue to cite your polls of choice. I will continue to cite the actual state referendum and special-election results that support my point.

 

[muttly]

But the DEFINING issue of 2024 is abortion rights. That's the issue already making a difference in turnout and election results. That will remain so even with Trump on the ballot. Trump is responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. At this point neither you nor I can do anything more than make our respective predictions. We'll have to wait until November, 2024 to see what actually happens.

In the meantime, you can continue to cite your polls of choice. I will continue to cite the actual state referendum and special-election results that support my point.

It’s not just “polls of choice”, but the Left leaning ones as well that are showing the Biden reelection is in big trouble, even historically bad.

 

[ATeam]

It’s not just “polls of choice”, but the Left leaning ones as well that are showing the Biden reelection is in big trouble, even historically bad.

Regardless, you cite polls. I cite actual election results. Polls don't vote. People do.

 

[muttly]

Regardless, you cite polls. I cite actual election results. Polls don't vote. People do.

You’re citing results from non-presidential elections. Two different things, especially with Trump as the nominee. In 2020, there was a net gain of 14 republican House seats.

 

[ATeam]

Anti-Abortion Conservatives Know they Can't Win at the Ballot Box

"The emerging strategy aims to prevent abortion rights groups from notching their third, and largest, set of ballot measure victories since Roe v. Wade was overturned. And while conservatives celebrated the fall of Roe for returning the question of abortion rights to the people, these efforts are seen as an implicit admission that anti-abortion groups don’t believe they can win at the ballot box — even in red states — and that the best way to keep restrictions on the procedure is to keep voters from weighing in directly."

These people don't believe in following the rulings of the Supreme Court, they don't believe in majority rule, and they don't believe in democracy.

Conservatives move to keep abortion off the 2024 ballot

“We don't believe those rights should be subjected to majority vote.”

www.politico.com

 

[ATeam]

Florida Abortion Rights Activists on the Move

The trend continues. With abortion rights on the Florida ballot in 2024, Democrats and independents who want to recover the abortion rights Donald Trump, the US Supreme Court and Florida state legislature took away from them will turn out in higher numbers.

The number of signatures is not the end. Florida makes it really hard for voters to amend their state constitution. But the people running these campaigns are determined and highly skilled. I'm hopeful we'll see the abortion rights question on the FL ballot in 2024.

"By the end of the month, Floridians Protecting Freedom said it will have submitted 1.4 million signatures to state officials, more than enough to qualify ahead of the Feb. 1 deadline to get signatures submitted and verified." (Source)

Backers say Florida abortion ballot initiative on track ahead of signature deadline

A coalition of abortion rights groups in Florida says it is close to collecting enough signatures to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot next year that would protect abortion. By the end …

thehill.com

 

[ATeam]

Done Deal! Abortion Rights are on the Florida 2024 Ballot

CNN: A coalition of Florida abortion rights supporters announced on Friday they have gathered enough signatures to put a state constitutional amendment protecting the right to an abortion on the ballot in 2024. Election officials have verified 910,946 petitions submitted by Floridians Protecting Freedom, according to the Florida Division of Elections website.

If this goes as it went in other red states, and there is good reason to believe it will, the people of Florida will reclaim their abortion rights and enshrine them forever in their state constitution.

Additionally, having this item on the ballot will:

1. Produce massive turnout of pro-choice voters, many of whom are Gen Z voters who have never voted before.
2. Potentially weaken or eliminate the pro-life majority in the state legislature.
3. Soundly refute DeSantis's efforts to impose his pro-life agenda on people who don't want it.
5. Make it more difficult for federal Republican incumbents to get reelected.
4. Force Trump (if he remains on the ballot) to divert resources to Florida that he would prefer to use in other states.
5. Burden Trump with his anti-abortion, Supreme Court legacy.

 

[ATeam]

In Special Election, Abortion Rights Helps Flip NY-03 Red to Blue

According to reports, in the NY-03 US House special election, completed today,

"Over the course of the race, all nine ads from Republican nominee Mazi Pilip and her allies have been about immigration. Congressional Leadership Fund, the lead GOP super PAC, has spent nearly $2.7 million airing an ad that claims the Democratic nominee, former Rep. Tom Suozzi, “rolled out the red carpet for illegal immigrants.”

"Suozzi and his allies have spent millions responding to the onslaught of attacks. One ad, from Suozzi’s campaign, tells voters that “you've been hearing a lot of nonsense blaming Tom Suozzi for the migrant problem,” and includes a clip of the former congressman saying, “I support strong border security.”

"Democrats have also looked to insert other issues into the debate, including abortion rights, a winning issue for the party in recent cycles. Suozzi and his allies have produced three ads on the topic and spent $4.5 million airing them." (Source: CNN)

While the total vote count is not yet in, news networks are calling the race for the Democratic candidate and the Republican has conceded.

Conclusion: Immigration was the top issue in this race, made so by the Republicans. They initiated the immigration messages the Democrats responded to. Voters heard both sides and chose the Democrat to help solve America's immigration problem.

That's big trouble for the Republicans. They thought they owned the immigration issue. It is now evident in this district they do not. I have no proof of this, but I think the recent Republican shenanigans to follow Trump's orders to torpedo the border bill that has been carefully negotiated by both parties may have something to do with this NY-03 Republican defeat.

With this messaging, and additional messaging on abortion rights, the Democrats not only won back a US House seat. They did so by a wide margin. This adds supporting evidence to my assertion that abortion rights is the defining issue of 2024. Advantage Democrats.

Related: The polls showed this race to be very tight right up to election day. The polls were badly wrong.

 

[Pilgrim]

Abortion rights are well ensconced in NY, and it's highly unlikely this was a key factor in this local election. New Yorkers know their abortion rights aren't going anywhere, and they even welcome abortion seekers from other states. The main issues in the upcoming national election will be the economy, health care and immigration with abortion down the list tied with the environment. Abortion is simply not the top of mind national issue that radical liberals would like it to be.

Election 2024 poll: How voters feel about key issues

Newsweek's new tracker poll has found that a majority of voters don't believe the U.S. has control of its borders.

www.newsweek.com

 

[ATeam]

Abortion is simply not the top of mind national issue that radical liberals would like it to be.

Florida abortion-rights activism and progress toward getting this getting this on the ballot say otherwise.

 

[Pilgrim]

Florida abortion-rights activism and progress toward getting this getting this on the ballot say otherwise.

That's FL, not national. I'd be surprised if DeSantis doesn't eventually agree to compromise his stance on FL abortion policies considering the 6 week limit is considered extreme by any standards.