As with any presidential election, in which all US House Seats and a number of US Senate seats are also in play, a host of issues come to the fore. But as we head into 2024, I think there is a single issue that will top all others in importance, and I think that issue alone will result in voters ousting Republican incumbents and rejecting new Republican candidates in decisive numbers.
The issue is abortion rights, or reproductive freedom as some call it. Most Republicans staunchly oppose abortion and many would say there is no such thing as abortion rights at all. The US Supreme Court gave a nod in that direction when they overturned Roe v. Wade in June, 2022; thereby ending the rights Roe v. Wade previously provided. Since then, several red-state legislatures, governors and courts have moved swiftly to decisively control or end abortion in their states.
That's great news for Republicans nationwide who have that view. But, it may prove to be a Republican disaster in future elections. That's because a majority of the American people favor abortion rights. And the early indications are that this issue motivates Americans to turn out to vote that preference when they get the chance. And they turn out in sufficient numbers to defeat the anti-abortion candidates or ballot questions.
There's lots to think about between now and Nov. 2024, including the southern border, the economy, gun rights, the Russia/Ukraine war, legal actions against Trump, the likely Republican nominee, etc. But my sense is the abortion issue will be the one that tops them all and determines the election results.
I'm not taking this view without evidence. The recent Wisconsin state supreme court election is a case in point. While people running for supreme court seats do not directly campaign on issues or rulings they may make, the abortion issue overwhelmed this race and it was widely seen as all about that. In a state that Biden carried by less than one point in 2020, the candidate seen as abortion-rights-friendly won by an astounding 11%.
To the extend that an incumbent president's popularity is a factor in an election, Biden is unpopular now. If anything, the Biden favorability/unfaforability rating would have hurt the pro-abortion cause in Wisconsin. But clearly, the energy provided by the abortion issue was a force in itself; and a powerful force at that.
Another example is provided by red-state Kansas, where in August, 2022, voters rejected a proposed state constitutional amendment that would have said there was no right to abortion in the state. The proposal failed by an astounding 18% and turnout was higher than expected.
That's not what many would expect in a red state like Kansas, but that's what happened. And that's what will happen again and again nationwide as voters get the chance to react to the loss or reduction of the abortion rights they wish to retain. Republicans are vastly out of touch with voters on the abortion issue. Instead of recognizing that and moderating somewhat, they dig in deeper when challenged. Consequently, voters are turning out to set them straight.
There are and will be other examples as the weeks and months pass. I created this thread to cite them here as they develop.
The issue is abortion rights, or reproductive freedom as some call it. Most Republicans staunchly oppose abortion and many would say there is no such thing as abortion rights at all. The US Supreme Court gave a nod in that direction when they overturned Roe v. Wade in June, 2022; thereby ending the rights Roe v. Wade previously provided. Since then, several red-state legislatures, governors and courts have moved swiftly to decisively control or end abortion in their states.
That's great news for Republicans nationwide who have that view. But, it may prove to be a Republican disaster in future elections. That's because a majority of the American people favor abortion rights. And the early indications are that this issue motivates Americans to turn out to vote that preference when they get the chance. And they turn out in sufficient numbers to defeat the anti-abortion candidates or ballot questions.
There's lots to think about between now and Nov. 2024, including the southern border, the economy, gun rights, the Russia/Ukraine war, legal actions against Trump, the likely Republican nominee, etc. But my sense is the abortion issue will be the one that tops them all and determines the election results.
I'm not taking this view without evidence. The recent Wisconsin state supreme court election is a case in point. While people running for supreme court seats do not directly campaign on issues or rulings they may make, the abortion issue overwhelmed this race and it was widely seen as all about that. In a state that Biden carried by less than one point in 2020, the candidate seen as abortion-rights-friendly won by an astounding 11%.
To the extend that an incumbent president's popularity is a factor in an election, Biden is unpopular now. If anything, the Biden favorability/unfaforability rating would have hurt the pro-abortion cause in Wisconsin. But clearly, the energy provided by the abortion issue was a force in itself; and a powerful force at that.
Another example is provided by red-state Kansas, where in August, 2022, voters rejected a proposed state constitutional amendment that would have said there was no right to abortion in the state. The proposal failed by an astounding 18% and turnout was higher than expected.
That's not what many would expect in a red state like Kansas, but that's what happened. And that's what will happen again and again nationwide as voters get the chance to react to the loss or reduction of the abortion rights they wish to retain. Republicans are vastly out of touch with voters on the abortion issue. Instead of recognizing that and moderating somewhat, they dig in deeper when challenged. Consequently, voters are turning out to set them straight.
There are and will be other examples as the weeks and months pass. I created this thread to cite them here as they develop.
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