Flu Schmu

louixo

Veteran Expediter
Charter Member
In April 2003, the world seemed on the brink of a killer pandemic.

After simmering for months in Guangdong, China, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus had exploded in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, Canada, the U.S. and 14 other countries. It had a seriously scary fatality rate of 10 percent.

But as quickly as it came, it just as quickly faded away. The virus turned out not to be as contagious as feared. To date, the World Health Organization estimates that 774 people died from SARS. Most of the deaths occurred in Hong Kong and other areas in Southern China--where officials let the outbreak fester too long without taking steps to contain it.

Here in the U.S. there were only eight reported SARS cases, all nonfatal.

SARS was scary, for sure. But it affected only a specific region. And the deaths were mostly to blame on incompetent public health officials.

This history is something to keep in mind in the coming weeks as the swine flu outbreak, which is suspected of causing more than 100 deaths in Mexico, unfolds. While there have been a small number of cases in the United States, almost all of them have been mild, and there have been no deaths. And it is not clear whether there ever will be a significant number of deaths.

Hysteria and exotic-sounding disease outbreaks go hand in hand. Whether it's anthrax, mad cow disease, foot-and-mouth disease, bird flu or, going back to the 1990s, ebola—news of an outbreak generates fear that's disproportionate to the risk of catching the disease. In each of these cases deaths, if they occurred at all, were minimal.

During the SARS episode, the U.S. quickly cranked itself into full freakout mode. Each of the eight U.S. patients who contracted SARS had picked up the disease in Asia, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Yet travelers donned face masks no matter where they were flying. Pedestrians in U.S. cities followed suit. Families canceled vacations. Shoppers and diners avoided Chinatowns and Chinese restaurants like they were leper colonies. Companies scaled back their business in Asia, and then blamed bad financial results on SARS.

Cable news channels and other media sensationalized the outbreak as if it were a Hollywood movie—a real-life sequel to Dustin Hoffman's 1995 hit Outbreak. A medical historian at the University of Toronto, Edward Shorter, watched what was going on and called the phenomenon "mass psychosis."

Meanwhile, that year--and in every year this decade—between 30,000 and 50,000 American deaths were recorded from complications related to the seasonal flu. Another 40,000 people died in automobile accidents. And each year, gunshot wounds account for 30,000 deaths, around 4,000 people drown while swimming or boating and 60 people die from lightning strikes.

"The public is driven by irrational fears. They didn't go to medical school," says Shorter. "They're responding to an abdication of leadership by political leaders."

So far, the U.S. has responded to the swine flu with restraint. President Obama said the problem is a "cause for concern" and "not a cause for alarm." And the declaration of a public health emergency is not quite as scary as it sounds. It is an important precautionary measure, like declaring a state of emergency in Florida because a hurricane may or may not hit. But Russia banned pork imports from Mexico. And Hong Kong has said it won't accept flights from Mexico. "That's irrational, except to whip up public sentiment against the Mexicans," Shorter says.

The American public—and the news media—was captivated for an entire weekend by the prospect of a swine flu crossing our border. Is it the beginning of the next pandemic? Will the U.S. State Department ban travel to Mexico? Will the border be sealed? Will San Diego be next?

Let the public health officials make these decisions, Shorter recommends. No matter how virulent an outbreak seems at the beginning, public health departments will react aggressively. That's their job—better safe than sorry—and that's how epidemics are contained. But everyone else should learn to relax.Over 36,000 die of the regular flu every year, why is this such a big deal!!!! Media overload!!!
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
No, it's not media overload. Looking back on it, SARS burned out quickly and didn't become pandemic. But it might have if the "irrational" responses hadn't taken place. Some of the actions taken around the world were indeed irrational, but banning flights from Mexico was not an irrational act. Mexico is Ground Zero for a new strain of flu, and everyone around the world who has been infected was either infected while in Mexico, or were directly infected from someone who was. Banning flights from Mexico may have been the most rational act of all.

When word first got out of a brand new, never before seen strain of influenza was discovered in Mexico, the borders should have been shut down right then and there. The problem with the flu is that is has a 24-48 hour incubation period, so you don't know what you're dealing with for 48-72 hours. You could look and feel fine, but be carrying the next plague, and no one will know it until it's too late. It happened with this one, too, where the numbers were becoming exponential every 24 hours. It turns out we were lucky with this one, and it's apparently burning out fast. Of course, it'll come back again this fall, and it may or may not be the same sub strain when it does, as it may mutate again, much the same way it mutated between the time of initial infection and was brought home to NYC by Spring Break college students.

The Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 started out exactly the same way this one did. Exactly. A few isolated cases, then rapid transportation of people spread it quickly, and before anyone knew what happened, somewhere between 50-100 million people were dead. One billion people had been infected.

In 1957 more than 2 million people were killed by the Asian flu. Started out small, same as this one, 24-48 hour incubation period. In 1968 more than one million died from the Hong Kong flu.

Yeah, every year in America about 36,000 people die from normal, endemic human flu. That doesn't mean that a new strain of flu should be so easily dismissed. Endemic means normally and naturally present, an invader that we can generally handle as a species, 36,000 deaths notwithstanding. Swine flu is endemic to pigs, not humans. Avian flu is endemic to birds, not humans. When swine or avian, or both, merges with human flu, it's a bug of a different animal, not endemic to humans, and even with antiviral drugs, it's still simply a case of our immune systems can fight it off, or they can't. Except that we won't know one way or the other until the virus runs its course. If we're lucky, the virus will burn itself out quickly. If we're unlucky, then nuclear war and weapons of mass destruction will be the least of our worries.

As soon as you don't respect a virus like the flu, it'll kill you.

The movie mentioned above, "Outbreak", was inspired by, and loosely based on the book "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston. But the movie is a G-rated Disney feature compared to the true dangers and events as chronicled in the book. It's a book that I highly recommend that everyone read. Don't read it if you're sick, tho.
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
Turtle,
This strain is not new, but it has not been adapted to a human host as the other strains have. The problem that makes this a big deal is that fact - adaptation of the strain within the different human bodies will take some time and it may be we will see a return of it sometime in the near future, maybe within two years. The worst thing we a can actually do is treat it with anti-biotic soaps and drugs.

The swine connection has to do with common genes between our swiny freinds and ourselves. They use pigs in research for specific deseases to look for cures. It is along the same reason they use specific breeds of rats, monkeys and so on.

SARS for example had already multated and adapted to humans, it spread was countered by our ablity to isolated a lot of the sick people and communicate to other groups in order to take precuations.

A lot in the media is asking why Mexico of all places would this take hold, instead of NY, LA or CHicago, well Mexico is too dirty of a place and actually a great place to start an epidemic.

I never heard Spanish Influenza called the spanish flu.
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
Yea and look at all the turkeys, chickens and ducks that were killed trying to prevent it from spreading.

The reason the swine flu is not called the swine flu in the media is because Egypt decided to kill 300,000 pigs to prevent the spread but they were not infected. The WHO is figuring we may be a little more smarter than a first grader but they were wrong and released a DEMAND Letter that all Media Outlets stop scaring people into thinking that their pork is bad.
 

OntarioVanMan

Retired Expediter
Owner/Operator
As explained to me by a researcher at the U of North Carolina research farm....when I delivered hatching eggs....

A womans ovaries and a chickens are almost the same....and they can run experiments quicker because a chicken ovulates every 24 hrs....for cancer research....Hence the human connection to birds...

Now you know why your wife squawks like one...*LOL*
 

jujubeans

OVM Project Manager
As explained to me by a researcher at the U of North Carolina research farm....when I delivered hatching eggs....

A womans ovaries and a chickens are almost the same....and they can run experiments quicker because a chicken ovulates every 24 hrs....for cancer research....Hence the human connection to birds...

Now you know why your wife squawks like one...*LOL*


You Are getting too big for yer britches hubby! *snapping my tail feathers at ya*
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
Turtle,
This strain is not new,
Of course it is. The sequences have finally been done, and it doesn't contain bird flu as originally reported, but it does contain a reassortment of two current pig flu viruses, a reassortment combination that has never before been seen.

The two strains whose genes are found in the hybrid belong to influenza families known generally as North American and Eurasian pig flu. The former was first described in the 1930s, and the latter in 1979. The Eurasian strain is generally found in Europe and Asia, rather than North America.

Neither of the strains have ever proven contagious in humans. One of the genes inherited from the Eurasian strain has reportedly never been seen in humans. It codes for the neuraminidase enzyme (the N1 in H1N1) which controls the expansion of the virus from infected cells.

“The new neuraminidase gene that came in from Eurasian swine is one we’ve never before seen circulating in humans,” said Rambaut. “That’s one of the reasons it’s spreading rapidly. Very few people will have any immunity to this particular combination, which is what gives the concern that this will be a pandemic rather than just a normal seasonal flu outbreak. It remains to be seen how much and to what extent there is existing immunity.”

In medical terms, the genetic origins of the virus may not matter. Whether it come solely from pigs rather than a mix of pigs, birds and humans doesn’t change its immunological novelty.



The Spanish flu started out the same way this one did, a minor outbreak, burned out quickly, then mutated and adapted and came roaring back during the flu season.



I never heard Spanish Influenza called the spanish flu.
Goggle it, you'll be shocked. It's a nickname, to be sure, but that's the most common name for it. Utter the phrase "Spanish flu" to a virologist and he'll immediately know what you are talking about.
 

layoutshooter

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
That outbreak took almost 2% the world's population. Estimates on deaths range from 45 - 100 Million people. Just imagine, take the world's population now. Imagine now if that flu and Hitler's murders and Stalins and all the other mass murders last century just how large would our population be? It staggers that mind. We are a very resilliant spiecies Layoutshooter
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
A minor point... the morality rate of the Spanish Influenza was between 5% and 10%. The world's population was about two billion at the time. Half the population was infected, one billion, and between 5% and 10% of those were killed by it. Exact numbers aren't known, but in areas where it was tracked closely, the numbers were closer to 10%, but varied in some areas as low as 5%. The minimum observed rate was 5%, so you'll see figures that state 50 million people died from it. You'll also see figures as high as 100 million, since that's 10% of the estimated infected population.

Current World Population is about 6.9 billion. If there's a 50% infection rate, that's 3.45 billion.

At 5%, that's 172.5 million people, more than half the population of the United States.

At 10%, it's 345 million people. That's everything north of the Rio Grand.
 

OntarioVanMan

Retired Expediter
Owner/Operator
That outbreak took almost 2% the world's population. Estimates on deaths range from 45 - 100 Million people. Just imagine, take the world's population now. Imagine now if that flu and Hitler's murders and Stalins and all the other mass murders last century just how large would our population be? It staggers that mind. We are a very resilliant spiecies Layoutshooter


Good breeder stock eh?:D

But Turtle,,back then there was no antibiotics....and the population wasn't jacked on them like we are now....it follows the results would be higher....
 

layoutshooter

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
I don't think antibiotics have any affect on the flu. The flu is a virus. There are anti-virals but they are only somewhat effective. Vaccines work better. The over use of the antibiotics might have a problem it there is a secondary infection.

Turtle, I got that number off a new report so who knows how good it is?

Lahyoutshooter
 
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