Death by DeSantis

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Having thought more about this, I offer the following THEORY. It's not something I believe. It's one possible explanation among many. I offer it for the purposes of conversation.

DeSantis is fading in the polls because Trump's vicious attacks of DeSantis have been effective, and DeSantis's retorts have been weak and ineffective.DeSantis's poll drop began at about the same time Trump started savaging him. The Democrats did not label DeSantis a "groomer." Trump did, and it's working.

DeSantis has not responded in kind. Like many Republicans, he lives in mortal fear of the Trump base, and he maintains the fantasy that Trump followers will magically shift to DeSantis when Trump collapses from old age or under his ever-increasing baggage. Accordingly, so as to not alienate the Trump base, DeSantis and other Republicans give Trump far more deference than he deserves. Essentially, they smile and bend over every time Trump comes after them.

The mistake they make is failing to realize the cult following Trump maintains. His base is not a political following that will easily shift alliances. While there are a lot of Republicans who love Trump and say they are concerned that Trump's baggage makes him a weaker candidate in the general election, they still love him and they'll still vote for him in the Republican primary, thereby assuring that Trump will be the nominee. They say they'll vote for DeSantis if DeSantis is the nominee, but their militant loyalty to Trump pretty much assures Trump will be the nominee.

DeSantis and other Republican candidate wannabees have no choice but to give back to Trump the same savaging Trump gives them. But even that won't work, because Trump's base is more cult-like than party like. I don't have that survey at hand but I remember seeing one that said the majority of Republicans are Trump-loyal first and Republican-loyal second.

Even if Trump is jailed before election day and somehow forced off the ballot, many of these Republicans will write him in, if they vote at all; thereby guaranteeing the White House will remain in Democratic hands, and possibly flipping the House back to Democratic control.
But Biden is such a weak candidate for re-election. High inflation shows no real signs of letting up. So it is here to stay. The Fed is jammed at this point. They can’t be aggressive enough to raise interests rates considerably because it will be the death knell for the banks. People will continue to bear the brunt of it. Will the majority of Americans want new leadership than the Dems have to offer? They’ve screwed the pooch. Hopefully they will remember how good it was in 2019 when Trump was in there.
 
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danthewolf00

Veteran Expediter
But Biden is such a weak candidate for re-election. High inflation shows no real signs of letting up. So it is here to stay. The Fed is jammed at this point. They can’t be aggressive enough to raise interests rates considerably because it will be the death knell for the banks. People will continue to bear the brunt of it. Will the majority of Americans want new leadership than the Dems have to offer? They’ve screwed the pooch. Hopefully they will remember how good it was in 2019 when Trump was in there.
Well....took them long enough to get tired of lightfoot in Chicago. Democrats don't vote smart they vote for who ever gives them free stuff.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Reasons for Trump surge and DeSantis drop:
What about DeSantis's anti-woke agenda which he is promoting with great vigor? Why is that not helping him among conservatives? Why is that not boosting his poll numbers against Trump?
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
What about DeSantis's anti-woke agenda which he is promoting with great vigor? Why is that not helping him among conservatives? Why is that not boosting his poll numbers against Trump?
That’s his 26%. Trump is anti-woke too, as well as being for not sending billions to Ukraine and continuing the war there. Unlike D’s comment that Putin is a war criminal making any negotiations for a halt to war more difficult. MAGA is arguably the only real anti-war faction and it’s led by Trump. The Left has gone full on pro war. The Dems are now the war party.
 
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Pilgrim

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The RCP average shows a different picture. Trump does hold a solid 43.9% over DeSantis at 29%. However, DeSantis has actually risen over the period these polls were taken. RCP also shows DeSantis beating Biden in a head-to-head contest. Once again, it's very early in the process and DeSantis hasn't declared and launched a full blown campaign. If and when he does it will be interesting to see who his backers will be. My guess is that it will quickly evolve into a two-man race.

 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
That may be, but in 2020, Biden beat Trump. In current polls, Biden beats Trump. Biden may be weak. Trump is weaker.
Roughly the same. But the fact that Biden is even in the 40’s approval with the sky high inflation, high energy costs, dwindling savings, banks on the precipice of being nationalized, impending depression and stagflation and have Dems vote in lockstep for their leader of the party that is overwhelmingly the cause of it is the epitome of a cult following.
 
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muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
The RCP average shows a different picture. Trump does hold a solid 43.9% over DeSantis at 29%. However, DeSantis has actually risen over the period these polls were taken. RCP also shows DeSantis beating Biden in a head-to-head contest. Once again, it's very early in the process and DeSantis hasn't declared and launched a full blown campaign. If and when he does it will be interesting to see who his backers will be. My guess is that it will quickly evolve into a two-man race.

It’s basically over. Trump has the nomination. His support and lead won’t go away. The other candidates are banking their campaigns on the possibility that the Dems will go through with their unhinged “investigations” and somehow prevent him from running.
 
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Pilgrim

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Trump, DeSantis, or any of the other GOP candidates would make a better POTUS than Biden, Harris, or any other Democrat candidate that's on the radar right now. But speaking hypothetically, if Trump continues to hold a commanding lead throughout the campaign and wins the election he will generate non-stop negative media assaults and political prosecutions for the entire six years. The Democrats will manufacture one slander after another, generate riots in the streets (like we've seen before), and the deep state within DC will resist him at every turn - just like last time. The GOP is supposed to have the advantage in winning the Senate in '24 due to the fewer seats they have to defend, but that's not a sure bet. Without the Senate, every Trump bill would be dead on arrival. One of Trump's enduring weaknesses has been the inability to surround himself with loyal, competent people, and we would probably see more cabinet turmoil and a continuous flow of leaks from anonymous sources meant to embarrass him and damage his effectiveness. Of course Trump loyalists don't foresee this scenario, but considering recent history it's almost guaranteed. If Trump fatigue sets in with the public after the first year of all this, the result would be the loss of both houses of Congress and a lame duck presidency for at least two years if not all four. Also, let's not ignore the fact that his unfavorable rating in RCP polls has held steady around 55% for the past year. Victory over Biden is not a slam dunk.

That's why the Democrats want to run against Trump - not DeSantis. That's also why Republican voters should consider what a Trump presidency would look like if he wins, and what another four years of Biden would be like if he beats Trump.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
he GOP is supposed to have the advantage in winning the Senate in '24 due to the fewer seats they have to defend, but that's not a sure bet.
Correct. It's not a sure bet. Senate races are statewide so the districts cannot be gerrymandered in the GOP's favor; and the Supreme Court anti-abortion ruling has already proven to be a motivator that gets non-Republicans out of their seats and to the polls.
Of course Trump loyalists don't foresee this scenario, but considering recent history it's almost guaranteed.
Or they do see it and look forward to stoking chaos as Trump likes to do.
That's why the Democrats want to run against Trump - not DeSantis.
Yep. I'm not a Democrat but I'm rooting for Trump for that very reason. My hair stylist is a highly active Democrat. She too is rooting for Trump to win the nomination. We both chuckle about how, while highly critical of Trump, we're rooting for him to win the nomination. That's because we believe Trump is a destructive force and the more alive he is in the Republican Party, the worse for that party it will be.
That's also why Republican voters should consider what a Trump presidency would look like if he wins, and what another four years of Biden would be like if he beats Trump.
You make a good case and a respectful appeal to your audience. But I think it will fall on deaf ears. If you're not for Trump, you're a RINO and you unwelcome in the Republican Party, at least to those who will be turning out in droves to vote for Trump in the primary elections.
 
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muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Yep. I'm not a Democrat but I'm rooting for Trump for that very reason. My hair stylist is a highly active Democrat. She too is rooting for Trump to win the nomination. We both chuckle about how, while highly critical of Trump, we're rooting for him to win the nomination.
My limousine chauffeur driver is also a Democrat, he said he voted for Biden because he believed the lies the Dems/“news” media told him about Trump . He also told me that he will never make that mistake again and will vote for Trump next time. We both chuckled that he was fooled last time.
 
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danthewolf00

Veteran Expediter
None of my friends that are Democrat are going to vote for a Democrat because of the lies told as well as the evidence that was withheld just before the midterms about bidens classified documents scandal......
But trump is the criminal....right.
 
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danthewolf00

Veteran Expediter
Alvin braggs has taken 2 now possibly 3 days with out the grand jury being convened....I wonder if they got polled and voted no crime for trump.
 

Pilgrim

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
My limousine chauffeur driver is also a Democrat, he said he voted for Biden because he believed the lies the Dems/“news” media told him about Trump . He also told me that he will never make that mistake again and will vote for Trump next time. We both chuckled that he was fooled last time.
Great example. There's a lot of people like that who's Trump hate was so great they couldn't see through the false notion that Biden was an affable moderate who would be an acceptable caretaker POTUS for one term. They assumed the great economy and improved foreign affairs were baked into the system, not the result of Trump policies that gave us our growing energy independence. They couldn't imagine that Biden was a sock puppet for the radical left Democrats who were propping him up as a candidate. Now they see what Biden's done after only two years.

The fact is that we have two major political parties and we have to pick our poison. We can vote for the GOP and try to put new leadership in place, or vote Democrat and watch the socialists take over our country. The so-called "Independants" who sit back and do nothing but complain are no more than de facto Democrats.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
The so-called "Independants" who sit back and do nothing but complain are no more than de facto Democrats.
How many times have you recently attended a school board meeting to speak out on an issue of importance to you? How much money have you contributed to local candidates? How many political meetings have you attended in the last year? How many city council meetings have you attended in the last year and how many times have you spoken out there? How many letters have you recently written to your elected officials? How many candidate-sponsored events have you attended? How many candidate debates have you personally attended?

This independent has been busier than most citizens. I don't know who you are talking about when you speak of independents who "sit back and do nothing" but you're not talking about me.
 

Pilgrim

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
This independent has been busier than most citizens. I don't know who you are talking about when you speak of independents who "sit back and do nothing" but you're not talking about me.
Obviously, I was not.
 
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