The Defining Issue of 2024

LDB

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
And the unicorns will be flying around dropping off all the free money to pay for the free stuff the moronic left believe is just a sprinkling of pixie dust away. Idiots.
 

Ragman

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
And the unicorns will be flying around dropping off all the free money to pay for the free stuff the moronic left believe is just a sprinkling of pixie dust away. Idiots.
I guess some didn't get the memo of the end of name calling.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Wisconsin Republicans Yield to Public Pressure

Two major political issues are in play in Wisconsin; gerrymandering and abortion rights. The two are intimately related, as explained below.

There was significant movement on both yesterday when Republican legislators said they were walking back their announced intentions to impeach a recently elected state supreme court justice, who is said to be liberal. They did this when it became clear that they did not have the votes in the state Senate to convict this judge if impeachment proceedings began.

More significantly at the political level, they reversed themselves when outraged Wisconsin voters rose up and convinced these power-abusing legislators that they were doomed if they proceeded with their impeachment plans. Now safe in her seat, she, with the other justices, will rule on the important cases that will come before the Court ... including cases involving legislative district maps and abortion rights.

Gerrymandering is in play because Wisconsin is perhaps the most gerrymandered state in the nation. "Though Democrats and Democratic-backed candidates have won 12 of the last 15 statewide elections dating to 2018, Republican-drawn legislative maps have given the G.O.P. two-thirds of seats in the State Senate and 64 of 99 seats in the Assembly." (Source)

Abortion rights are in play because after the US Supreme Court replaced Roe v. Wade with Dobbs v. Jackson, the Republican-controlled legislature refused to repeal Wisconsin's pre-Roe abortion ban. That left the ban, which was established in 1849, in place. It makes abortion a crime in all cases, except to save the life of the mother.

As has happened in several states since Dobbs, Wisconsin voters rose with a decisive majority to recover the abortion rights Roe provided. In Wisconsin, they did that by electing a state Supreme Court justice, Janet Protasiewicz, who made her abortion rights and gerrymandering views known before that election. Her opponent also made his opposing views known. This election attracted national interest and was widely seen as referendum on abortion rights. The voters gave Protasiewicz a decisive win; 55.5% to 44.5%. And with that win, they established a liberal majority on the state supreme court.

Undeterred by this decisive defeat, Republican lawmakers turned to impeachment talk. If these Republicans could not defeat the voters in a free and fair election, they would do so by exercising the disproportional power they had by virtue of the gerrymandered seats they held. Or so they thought.

When they announced their intent to impeach Protasiewicz, outraged voters rose to make their opinions known. Aided by the organizing efforts of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, the public outcry against impeachment was strong enough to prompt certain Republican senators to say they would not vote to convict if impeachment actions were initiated for political reasons. Realizing they now lacked the votes needed to remove this justice from the bench, and fearing the wrath of Wisconsin voters, the Republicans backed down.

The presence or absence of Justice Protasiewicz on the bench is crucial. Her vote and views tip the majority on the court toward abortion rights, and toward district maps that are not unfairly gerrymandered in the Republican Party's favor.

Once again, we see how abortion rights is the defining issue of 2024. The writing is on the wall in Wisconsin. Voters are rising in powerful numbers to recover their abortion rights. And if unfairly gerrymandered districts are an obstacle to that, they are rising to correct that too.

This has nothing to do with Trump or Biden, or the southern border, or the economy, or anything else. The defining issue that is literally changing Wisconsin's supreme court makeup and state-districts map is abortion rights.

MAGA Mentality Leads to Republican Overreach, Leads to Republican Defeats


 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
An Exception to My "Defining Issue" Assertion

In a development that will warm the hearts of combative conservatives nationwide, hard-line conservative Jeff Landry trounced a field of more than a dozen Republican, Democratic and independent opponents, some with big names, to win the race for Louisiana governor.

Landry's margin of victory was astounding. This was a primary election designed to winnow the field of more than a dozen candidates to two, with the two facing a runoff election for the gubernatorial seat. But Landry eliminated the need for a runoff by winning 51.1% of the vote. The next-closest candidate, Democrat Shawn Wilson, won just 26.0% of the vote. The other candidates split the remaining 23%.

Louisiana is a red state. Trump carried the state by nearly 19 points in 2020. The incumbent governor was Democrat John Bel Edwards, who did not run for reelection because he was term-limited out. Edwards is the only Democratic governor in the Deep South. Landry's victory flips the seat from blue to red. The state legislature has long been red.

Gov. Edwards is an anti-abortion Democrat. Except for Wilson, all or nearly all candidates in this "jungle primary" were anti-abortion to one degree or another. Wilson, a pro-choice candidate, tried to downplay or evade the issue when asked about it. While he came nowhere close to Landry's vote total, Wilson finished ahead of all other candidates in the race.

In this thread, I have said for months that abortion rights is the defining issue of 2024. To support that assertion, I have correctly pointed out the various elections in various states in which the voters' desire for pre-Dobbs abortion rights made a decisive difference in voter turnout and election outcomes.

Clearly, that did not happen in yesterday's Louisiana gubernatorial election. Clearly, my assertion was not supported by the outcome of this statewide race. I don't have much more to say about the Louisiana exception. It happened, and in the interests of honesty, I feel it is important to acknowledge that fact.

Does this mean I was wrong about what happened previously in the other states? Not at all. In the interests of honesty, it is important to acknowledge those election outcomes too. They also happened. They also are facts.

I continue to believe my assertion is valid. While it obviously will not prove true in all states and all districts, I believe it will prove mostly true when the 2024 vote totals are in.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Some on the Right are Learning

“We’re doing persuasion, not just pure base turnout..." said a conservative activist as the the statewide Ohio abortion-rights vote looms. The election is just four weeks away and early voting begins soon. This statewide referendum on abortion is a big one, so to speak. With no others near on the calendar, it will attract nationwide interest and funding from national groups on both sides of the issue.

In an earlier vote that set up this election and was widely seen as a referendum on abortion rights, anti-abortion conservatives were soundly defeated. It seems at least some of them have learned from their defeat and they are modifying their strategy and hoping to create a template that will reverse the nationwide trend of losses they have suffered. An Ohio anti-abortion win would lift the spirits of conservatives nationwide.

"Six states voted last year on abortion referendums. In all six, including deep-red Kansas, Kentucky and Montana — the anti-abortion side lost, and it wasn’t particularly close. The losing streak continued this year, as state supreme court races and special elections that became proxy wars over abortion swung decisively in favor of abortion-rights advocates."

This well-balanced article explains the situation in depth.

 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Big Ohio Abortion-Rights Win

The tally is now 7 for 7. Since the US Supreme Court ended the abortion rights provided by Roe v. Wade, and left it to the states to make their own abortion rights/restrictions decisions, the question has been placed before voters in statewide elections seven times. Some of those are in red states, some in blue. In every case, voters voted to recover or affirm the abortion rights that were provided by Roe v. Wade.

The latest example is red-state Ohio, where, notwithstanding intense and well-organized opposition from that state's Republican supreme court, state legislator, governor, Republican party and anti-abortion activists; voters overwhelmingly voted to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution.

Republicans in power who are staunchly anti-abortion continue do not get it. It does not matter how fervent their beliefs. It does not matter how right they think they are. The majority of people, when given the chance to vote on the issue, will vote to retain or recover their abortion rights. And because the Republican anti-abortion extremists don't get it, they lose these elections. If they only moderated their positions even a little bit, they might fare better, but they don't do that. They seem addicted to their extreme views, and thereby alienate themselves from the voting public.

 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
It also showed the SCOTUS decision on Roe v Wade is having its intended effect, which was NOT to take away women's abortion rights, but to allow those rights to be defined at the state level. Voters are engaging in that process, and it will take time to finalize.
So now that Ohio voters have engaged in the process and finalized their choice by enshrining reproductive rights in their state constitution, will the Ohio anti-abortion extremists accept the decision because the people truly spoke?
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
These elections are held when a lot of people are on vacation and may not be paying attention much.
This Ohio abortion-rights election was held on November 7, 2023; also known as Election Day. People were definitely paying attention, and they soundly defeated the Republican attempt to force an extreme anti-abortion position on them.

Now that this has happened, do you think the anti-abortion extremests will back off and let the people live without the government interference they sought to impose?
 
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muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
People aren’t excited to vote Republican and won’t turnout nearly as well without Trump on the ballot. Should be an interesting dynamic in 2024. You’ll have Biden with almost a historically low approval rating and losing to Trump in the polls overall and in a lot of categories regarding who would do a better job as president. Trump also will bring in more votes for Republicans with him on the ballot compared to if he wasn’t. Much more. Plus the abortion issue with late term and partial birth abortion extremists voting. Should be interesting how it all shakes out.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Virginia Voters Reject Youngkin's Abortion Proposal

Virginia's Republican Gov. Youngkin ran ads earlier this year about his proposed abortion rules. He sought to use the abortion issue to to retain Republican control of the VA House and flip the Senate to Republican control.

"The only issue that Democrats are running on is abortion,” David Rexrode, the executive director of Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, said in an interview at the organization’s offices in Richmond earlier this month. “And so since they’re running attack ads on abortion, we’re going to respond on abortion.” (Source)

Youngkin's approach failed. This evening, Virginians voted for the Democrats to retain Senate control, and to gain control of the House. With the Democrats now in control of both the House and Senate, Virginians are safe from Youngkin's abortion ideas. He has zero chance of imposing his abortion views on the people of Virginia.

Youngkin's anti-abortion intent and campaign, and tonight's election results, illustrate in yet another way that abortion rights is the defining issue of 2024. In this case, the abortion question itself was not on the ballot. It was the candidates who lived or died by that sword. And in this case, the result was consistent with what we've seen in states where abortion itself was on the ballot. Reproductive freedom won.
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"Youngkin, unusually, launched a strategy to have Republicans run on abortion in these elections. Youngkin pushed candidates to coalesce around a 15 week ban in the state, trying to cast Democrats as extremists on the issue and Republicans as the party with the reasonable position.

"Voters rejected that."
(Source)
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
The Ohio Columbus Dispatch:

"We aren't as red as Republicans Think
"How Republican lawmakers tried to stop the people
"Republicans want all and got nothing
"Three strikes with a fourth [redistricting power] on the way
" (Source)
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Good development:
This is indeed a good development. MAGA always celebrates when a Republican is crushed who does not fully embrace MAGA. Keep up the good work. MAGA is a self-destructive in the Republican Party, doing more damage to the party than the Democrats could ever hope to do.

The Republicans lost control of the VA House last night. Only MAGA Republicans would cheer that as a good Republican development. Look for MAGA to cheer the loss of the US House too, when that happens in the 2024 election.
 
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muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
This is indeed a good development. MAGA always celebrates when a Republican is crushed who does not fully embrace MAGA. Keep up the good work. MAGA is a self-destructive in the Republican Party, doing more damage to the party than the Democrats could ever hope to do.

The Republicans lost control of the VA House last night. Only MAGA Republicans would cheer that as a good Republican development. Look for MAGA to cheer the loss of the US House too, when that happens in the 2024 election.
Defining issue of 2024: A referendum on Biden’s economy AND TRUMP WILL BE THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE.
 
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