What doyou think Expediting will be like in 2010?

greg334

Veteran Expediter
John,
Here is the problem, the ROI wont be realized for at least two year to three years out with what I am talking about. This is not about logistics management through new technology (like trend forecasting) but rather real time transaction and fleet management system.

for example; if the contractor has access to information that a dispatcher has, like how many loads came out of Detroit today as real stats with the ablity to drill down to see the weight, size and even *cough* the rate, then they can make better decisions and act more business like in the long run. The people who are not into this as a business will not use it and eventaully fall out of the fleet.

The investment doesn't come from the need to buy a prepackage set of applications like Oracle's Logistics & Transportation Management system but rather to find the right advisors to guide you to a solid flexible system that allows you to expand or migrate to something better in the future.

I know of two companies who bought into the MS idea of flash over perfromance and it has hurt them by having their contractors be stuck with limited access to the info they need, including their own info.

Now when you talk about unifying the infromation, it can be done easily if it is internal but may be difficult if it is external - but it is doable. I know that once the information is in a database, it can be drilled down by a number of means but don't let these programmer fool you, the simpler the system - the better.

A company say like Panther (don't know much about them but I will use them anyway) may already have the data streached across three different databases and it may look like it is an impossible task to pull it all togther without some major overhauls but it can be done easily. We used to do it in the pharma industry all the time.

Anyway here is the thing, for every dollar a company puts into the proper IT projects, they can get three dollars back. On the contractors end of things, the return happens to filter back to the company through two ways;

1 - better management of the contractor's business through data, hence the return is a more profitable contractor who can operate even at the bottom of the rate cycles.

2 - the retention of the contractor because they can now manage their business by their standards and needs, not the company's limitations.
 

skyraider

Veteran Expediter
US Navy
Short of looking into my crystal ball or magic mirror on the wall who what when and where will make the most money of them all? It appears no one will know, but all answers are fun to read. I haven't been out here a year yet, but I've done OK for me so I don't really have any big complaints. I hear drivers talk about 45 , 50 and 65 cents a mile for cargo vans, but I'm paid more then that. Do the math, 1000 miles at 50cents a mile ain't much folks. So the company makes money and the drivers starve. Those drivers with cats on their vans , some I've met look like they need food and shelter, but I don't know their whole story probably. The folks that drive for the B companies, two come to mind seem happy and are getting miles. Straight trucks, I don't know about them, they be big bucks compared to my van in operating cost I'm sure. I hope things pick up as some growth is good, but not to fast, and I wish all of us out there burning up the roads get all the loads we can stand, I hear there is this thing call Prayer, so pray for favor when ur out there on the road, hey what else u got to do, video games, yea rite,,I'm sure that will do it,,,not,,,,amen , ps try favor next time,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,sky
 

Deville

Not a Member
The discounted loads across the board are getting ridiculous. It has to stop. Fedex has basically implemented an 85 cent per mile rate on on B, C & D units. 300+ mile runs being offered out at $285.00 for a D unit, with D unit size & weight. It's bad news across the board.

Companies are holding carriers hostage threatning to jumpto another carrier, Salesmen are worried about there commsions & are slashing rates 30, 40 & 50% in some cases on the hopes they will make more money on increased load bookings, mean while nonme of that is happening & drivers are getting screwed.

I don't see it getting better until carriers & customers reliaze that they will get what they pay for. You pay a **** rate than you should get **** service.
 

skyraider

Veteran Expediter
US Navy
I have consulted My Crystal Ball, talked to My Mirror On the Wall and the final answer is:::: No one knows, but as for me and my van, we shall fight for every load, take all loads, turn down no loads, and pray for favor each day, hope the pistons, rings, cranks, valve train and transmissions stay together another 200k miles, do u know what I mean.
So I wish everyone a safe and prosperous New Year for 2010.............................Sky:D
 

Crazynuff

Veteran Expediter
It is also possible that in the coming year one or more of the really big trucking companies (think Yellow Freight et. al.) could fail. With thousands of drivers suddenly unemployed, the resulting mad scramble for work any sort could well push a bunch of them into the expedite business. There's plenty of evidence to suggest that desperate people will grasp at anything to keep them afloat for the moment, and I believe such a situation could set off another wave of price cutting as people, who may be experienced as drivers but know little of business and long range planning, jump on any offer of work no matter how ridiculously priced just to keep a little cash flowing for another day or two.


Doug

By the end of October over 91,000 jobs have been lost in the trucking industry . 7,500 trucking jobs lost in October - eTrucker . Not only are these people looking for work but CDL schools are doing a booming business . People losing jobs in other industries think there will always be trucking jobs "because people always need stuff " and they will work (temporarily) for any ridiculous rate because "any job is better than no job "What really irritates me is we as taxpayers are providing funding for CDL school students through WIA . I bet less than 10% of these students stay in the industry 6 months . Many never even get hired and many are rejected at orientation . But you are right . Some do choose to get into expediting .
It is predicted 2010 will show some improvement in freight Report Sees Slow Trucking, Freight Recovery in 2010 | Transport Topics Online | Trucking, Freight Transportation and Logistics News but starting a new year an "improvement
' would merely mean a month in 2010 had a higher volume of freight than a month in 2009 . This was done in 2009 . Freight declined in October but was described as improved because it declined less from September than October 2008 did .
 

BigRed32771

Expert Expediter
By the end of October over 91,000 jobs have been lost in the trucking industry . 7,500 trucking jobs lost in October - eTrucker . Not only are these people looking for work but CDL schools are doing a booming business . People losing jobs in other industries think there will always be trucking jobs "because people always need stuff " and they will work (temporarily) for any ridiculous rate because "any job is better than no job "What really irritates me is we as taxpayers are providing funding for CDL school students through WIA . I bet less than 10% of these students stay in the industry 6 months . Many never even get hired and many are rejected at orientation . But you are right . Some do choose to get into expediting .
It is predicted 2010 will show some improvement in freight Report Sees Slow Trucking, Freight Recovery in 2010 | Transport Topics Online | Trucking, Freight Transportation and Logistics News but starting a new year an "improvement
' would merely mean a month in 2010 had a higher volume of freight than a month in 2009 . This was done in 2009 . Freight declined in October but was described as improved because it declined less from September than October 2008 did .

Predictions are a tricky thing. While I certainly hope for some improvement in freight, I'm still not sure the fundamentals are there for the economy as a whole. I big part of my work in '09 was military stuff moving around; this will probably continue for '10. If the gov't continues to try to spur the economy in the short term (ignoring the probable long term damage such efforts will likely have) we will see spurts of business such as the upsurge we saw in automotive after "Cash for Clunkers, Pt. 1" this last summer. Such efforts, however, generate only temporary results which taper back to the "status quo ante" all too soon. You are absolutely correct to point the way the language is used to manipulate our impressions of the situation by doing "year over year" comparisons without reference to a baseline or recent high. This is most clearly seen in the writing of headlines which often give an impression at odds with the details of the story, thus creating a false impression of the situation for those who only scan those headlines for their news w/o reading in depth.

I remain moderately optimistic, probably due to my natural inclination toward optimism in the first place. If I were more gloomy by nature I would probably say that I'm moderately pessimistic looking at the same sets of data. A "half full/half empty" sort of thing, I guess.

Doug

PS: can anyone tell me how to put text into italics using this editor? Thanks.
 

Mdbtyhtr

Expert Expediter
The fallacy of forecasting is that it is difficult to drill deep enough to provide sufficient analysis. Miss one factor and the results are worthless. The two most often overlooked factors are seasonality and month over month vs. year over year comparatives. Excel is great for being able to change a factor to view potential outcomes across the entire spread sheet, like cost per mile, loaded vs. Dead head miles etc.

Scott
 

Deville

Not a Member
All the signs that past 45 to 60 days point to a economic recovery, housing & retail are up & Merchants had a btter than expected Holiday season.

If the trend continues we could see some turn around this year, but & this is a big BUT. There is still one more big shoe to drop & that is the Commercial credit industry, we have already seen Dubai get blaided out by Abu Dabi & they are still on the brink of disaster. we will see similar companies in the USA have the same issues. If this does happen than we are back at square one.

If the above happens & we don't get ut from under in this calender year than I can't see any type of major recovery for another 3 years. Why 3 years you ask? Simple in 3 years there will a new President. No way Obama can get re-elected if there has been no significant recovery, people will revolt against the Dems. Like they revolted against the Republicans.

I'm not guranteeing this will happen but if u look at history it has a way of repeating itself in one way or another.

Happy New Year, & good luck.
 

xiggi

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
All the signs that past 45 to 60 days point to a economic recovery, housing & retail are up & Merchants had a btter than expected Holiday season.


Home sales are largely due to the tax credit being offered according to most experts. New home starts are still down and most sales are in the existing home market. There is still a huge amount of foreclosures ahead and the commercial foreclosures haven't even begun and are expected to be very large numbers.

I do hope the economy takes a turn for the better in 2010 but until the Government butts out and lets things sort themselves out it is only going to slow the recovery up. I think we may see a small uptick in the expedite business between people continuing to get out of the biz and company closings. I am not sure if it mean higher prices to the truck but with continued smart business practice we should all be ok.
 
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skyraider

Veteran Expediter
US Navy
In Chattanooga, the VW billion dollar plant being built has over 30,000 application on file and thousands more being processed. There are 1000's coming here for jobs, but there are so many applications on file in other companies, they really dont need any new applicants, its a mess here.. Not much freight come out of here for cargo van drivers. Most of my runs seem to originate from Ohio and Michigan. Now I have a milk run so to speak for the government and I took it thinking that cargovan fgt would fall off, Im glad I took it, its steady, pays ok, and Im not starving..........amen as far as the future goes, if I was younger and had money to invest, the straight trks are the way to go, they never stop rolling ..
 

dogshed

Seasoned Expediter
We will all have flying trucks, Ohhh wait 2010 is nearly here:eek:

I was just looking into that. You can rent an R-44 for $290 per hour. I think that includes fuel. The good thing is you don't pay when the engine is shut off. (No idling. Idling costs the same as going full speed.)

The real problem is that almost every run will be a dead head.
 

dogshed

Seasoned Expediter
Home sales are largely due to the tax credit being offered according to most experts. New home starts are still down and most sales are in the existing home market.

That makes sense since you can't get the credit for a new home until it's finished. If you order a modular home today you might be able to move in before the deadline.
 
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