September Auto Sales: A Bit More Hope

OntarioVanMan

Retired Expediter
Owner/Operator
If you were to take GM and DC out of the numbers the auto industry is not doing so bad....

By Ted Reed 09/22/09 - 01:54 PM EDT

DETROIT (TheStreet) -- Not surprisingly, September auto sales will show a dip, but it could be less dramatic than anticipated.

A forecast by Santa Monica, Calif.-based TrueCar, which aggregates vehicle sales information, suggests that September sales will decline 7% from September 2008 and 29% from August 2009, when Cash-for-Clunkers energized auto sales. A total of 899,374 units would bring domestic auto sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.1 million units.

"As expected, new-vehicle sales are down dramatically from August, but the declines will not be as bad as it looked at the beginning of the month," said Jesse Toprak, TrueCar vice president of industry trends, in a prepared statement. "Fundamental macroeconomic forces that fuel car sales have shown relative improvement within the last several weeks, although we are still a long way from a full recovery." He said domestic manufacturers' market share will be a record low 40.2%.

The month's winners were Nissan(NSANY Quote) , with sales up 27% from September 2008; Honda(HMC Quote), with a 13% increase, and Ford(F Quote) and Toyota(TM Quote), each up 12%, TrueCar estimates.

Meanwhile Chrysler is showing a 41% decline while General Motors is expected to show a 40% decline. Every manufacturer showed a decline from August 2009: Ford showed the smallest decline, down 26%.

As for market share, Toyota showed the biggest increase from September 2008, with an 18% share, up 3%. Ford was second with a 2.3% increase to a 14.2% share.

-- Written by Ted Reed in Charlotte, N.C. .
 

Crazynuff

Veteran Expediter
If you were to take GM and DC out of the numbers the auto industry is not doing so bad....

By Ted Reed 09/22/09 - 01:54 PM EDT

DETROIT (TheStreet) -- Not surprisingly, September auto sales will show a dip, but it could be less dramatic than anticipated.

A forecast by Santa Monica, Calif.-based TrueCar, which aggregates vehicle sales information, suggests that September sales will decline 7% from September 2008 and 29% from August 2009, when Cash-for-Clunkers energized auto sales. A total of 899,374 units would bring domestic auto sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.1 million units.

"As expected, new-vehicle sales are down dramatically from August, but the declines will not be as bad as it looked at the beginning of the month," said Jesse Toprak, TrueCar vice president of industry trends, in a prepared statement. "Fundamental macroeconomic forces that fuel car sales have shown relative improvement within the last several weeks, although we are still a long way from a full recovery." He said domestic manufacturers' market share will be a record low 40.2%.

The month's winners were Nissan(NSANY Quote) , with sales up 27% from September 2008; Honda(HMC Quote), with a 13% increase, and Ford(F Quote) and Toyota(TM Quote), each up 12%, TrueCar estimates.

Meanwhile Chrysler is showing a 41% decline while General Motors is expected to show a 40% decline. Every manufacturer showed a decline from August 2009: Ford showed the smallest decline, down 26%.

As for market share, Toyota showed the biggest increase from September 2008, with an 18% share, up 3%. Ford was second with a 2.3% increase to a 14.2% share.

-- Written by Ted Reed in Charlotte, N.C. .
Don't you mean GM and FC ?
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
We have twenty automotive consulting companies in this area and only one pegged the projections for the fall rather well. The thing is that GM and Chrysler are expected to lose even more, but like I said in another thread, they are celebrating and now as I sat down here, the news was talking about their projected production numbers which are not possible.

There is a reason they needed to do a re-org, it was to get rid of 80% of the old management who still think that if they build it, people will buy it. Sloan is dead and so is that concept.
 

Steady Eddie

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
Ford Motor has to disguise its trucks as passenger cars before importing them to the U.S. because of a tariff war that dates back to the 1960s. By adding a rear seat that's removed upon arrival, the automaker avoids a 25% levy.
 

aileron

Expert Expediter
Ford Motor has to disguise its trucks as passenger cars before importing them to the U.S. because of a tariff war that dates back to the 1960s. By adding a rear seat that's removed upon arrival, the automaker avoids a 25% levy.

Yeah, the same reason why MB builds Sprinter cargo vans in Germany, takes them apart, ships them as kits and reasembles them in South Carolina. Passenger Sprinters come complete from Germany.
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
Ford Motor has to disguise its trucks as passenger cars before importing them to the U.S. because of a tariff war that dates back to the 1960s. By adding a rear seat that's removed upon arrival, the automaker avoids a 25% levy.

Oh yea the chicken tax. Ford shipped the courier, which is the model you are talking about, as a cab chassis for a long time,. GM shipped the Luv in the same form and Volkswagen stopped shipping pickups here.

We can thank the UAW for this, they are the ones who insisted on it being left in place since 1962 or '63. We should have repealed the thing but the UAW has been against it and so it begs why by a product made by a union that is so un-American?
 

chefdennis

Veteran Expediter
Hey there is no worry, a new car company with al gore as an investor has just got a $529 million loan from the US Taxpayers...oh they will be built in Finland, but they shoiuld sell like hot cakes while priced at between $40,000 and $89,000...h and don't think for a minute that gore got any favors from the Fed gov...nope that would never happen.....:rolleyes:

Gore-Backed Car Firm Gets Large U.S. Loan

By JOSH MITCHELL and STEPHEN POWER
SEPTEMBER 25, 2009
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125383160812639013.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories#

WASHINGTON -- A tiny car company backed by former Vice President Al Gore has just gotten a $529 million U.S. government loan to help build a hybrid sports car in Finland that will sell for about $89,000.

The award this week to California startup Fisker Automotive Inc. follows a $465 million government loan to Tesla Motors Inc., purveyors of a $109,000 British-built electric Roadster. Tesla is a California startup focusing on all-electric vehicles, with a number of celebrity endorsements that is backed by investors that have contributed to Democratic campaigns.

The awards to Fisker and Tesla have prompted concern from companies that have had their bids for loans rejected, and criticism from groups that question why vehicles aimed at the wealthiest customers are getting loans subsidized by taxpayers.

"This is not for average Americans," said Leslie Paige, a spokeswoman for Citizens Against Government Waste, an anti-tax group in Washington. "This is for people to put something in their driveway that is a conversation piece. It's status symbol thing."

DOE officials spent months working with Fisker on its application, touring its Irvine, Calif., and Pontiac, Mich., facilities and test-driving prototypes.

Matt Rogers, who oversees the department's loan programs as a senior adviser to Energy Secretary Steven Chu, said Fisker was awarded the loan after a "detailed technical review" that concluded the company could eventually deliver a highly fuel-efficient hybrid car to a mass audience. Fisker said most of its DOE loan will be used to finance U.S. production of a $40,000 family sedan that has yet to be designed.

"It's the ability to drive significant change in fuel economy across a large market segment" that swayed the department to approve the Fisker loan, Mr. Rogers said. "We got quite excited."

Henrik Fisker, who designed cars for BMW, Aston Martin and Tesla before starting his Fisker Automotive in 2007, said his goal is to build the first plug-in electric hybrids that won't sacrifice the luxury, performance and looks of traditional gas-powered luxury cars.

The Karma will target an exclusive audience -- Gore was one of the first to sign up for one. Mr. Fisker says all new technology starts out being expensive. He pointed to flat-screen televisions that once started at $25,000 but are now affordable to the mass market.

The four-door Karma, powered by a lithium-ion battery, will be able to run solely on electric power for 50 miles, and will achieve an average fuel economy of 100 mpg over the span of a year, the company says. Production is scheduled to start in December, with about 15,000 vehicles a year expected to hit the U.S. market starting next June.

Many of the 1,500 people who have made deposits on the Karma are former BMW and Mercedes owners who want an environmentally friendly car without sacrificing luxury, Mr. Fisker said.

He said he pitched the Karma to Mr. Gore at an event hosted by KPCB last year, and that the former vice president almost immediately submitted a down payment for the car.

Kalee Kreider, a spokeswoman for Mr. Gore, confirmed that the former vice president backs Fisker and purchased a Karma. "He believes that a global shift of the automobile fleet toward electric vehicles, accompanying a shift toward renewable-energy generation, represents an important part of a sensible strategy for solving the climate crisis," she said in a statement.

Fisker's top investors include Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, a veteran Silicon Valley venture-capital firm of which Gore is a partner. Employees of KPCB have donated more than $2.2 million to political campaigns, mostly for Democrats, including President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks campaign contributions.

Officials at Kleiner Perkins didn't return requests for comment.

Asked whether Mr. Gore had any influence on Fisker's application, the DOE's Rogers said, "None at all."

"This is a very attractive, very across-party-lines kind of vehicle," Mr. Rogers said. "All of the detailed due diligence [was] done by independent review teams."

Other Fisker investors include Eco-Drive (Capital) Partners LLC, an investment consortium, and Qatar Investment Authority, a state-run investor based in Qatar.

Fisker's government loans will come from a $25 billion program established by Congress in 2007 to help auto makers invest in the technology to meet a new congressional mandate to improve fuel efficiency. In June, the DOE awarded the first $8 billion from the program to Ford Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co., and Tesla, which are all developing electric cars.

Some companies that have been turned down for loans from DOE say they did not get much feedback from the department about their applications. O. John Coletti, president of EcoMotors International of Troy, Mich., said his company applied for a $20 million loan from the agency last December, and last month got a one-page rejection letter from the loan program's director, Lachlan Seward. EcoMotors' lead investor is Vinod Khosla, himself a former Kleiner Perkins partner and a longtime campaign contributor to Republicans and Democrats alike.

"I don't have an issue with the winners … it's possible somebody has better ideas than us," Mr. Coletti said. At the same time, he said, "More feedback from DOE on a timely basis would be wonderful. When you're running a business you'd like to know whether you're going to be able to take advantage of this opportunity."

Mr. Coletti's company -- which makes diesel engines and is still waiting to hear from the Department on a separate loan application to help it build a manufacturing facility -- isn't without politically well-connected patrons, either. Its major investor is Vinod Khosla, himself a former Kleiner Perkins partner who has donated to campaigns.

Scott Redmond, CEO of XP Vehicles Inc., said he met with DOE officials twice in Washington after applying for a $40 million loan to develop a $15,000 to $25,000 hybrid, and that both times he was told his application looked good. Since receiving a rejection letter from DOE in August, Redmond said, he has been unable to get a full explanation as to why his request was turned down.

Mr. Rogers said he was not at liberty to discuss individual applications that had been turned down, but said the process has been handled fairly and objectively.

Write to Josh Mitchell at [email protected] and Stephen Power at [email protected]


Corrections & Amplifications
Tesla Motors Inc. produces all-electric vehicles. A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that Tesla produces hybrid gas-electric vehicles.
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
Yes we must use tax payers money to come up with innovations - without the government's help we would never be driving in the first place.

There were these two brothers in the north east of the cuontry who thought it would be a good idea to build a horseless cariage and sell them - to spur this flegling industry they got a loan from the government for Zero dollars - they were the Dureya brothers.

There was this wicked old guy call R.E. Olds that came up with an idea to build and sell a car. He had a problem, his shop where he built the cars caught fire (a global warming thing) and there was one car saved, a little dumb looking thing with a curved dash - he got a loan from the government to move his business to Lansing from Detroit and setup shop there, his loan was for Zero dollars.

You know that guy Henry Ford got a loan from the government to develop the Model T and later on the production line that grew the industry - the loan amount was ZERO dollars.

There was another guy who put together a company from a bunch of other companies who also got a loan from the government - his name was Billy Durant, the company was GM and the loan amount was also ZERO dollars.

A bunch of years later there was a guy who had a vision of an affordable steam car, he had started in Detroit then left for his home town of Emeryville California and produced the most complex high performance car the world has ever seen up before two brothers out did him, in doing so he also came up with the Oil Burner setup for home heating systems - he also got a loan from the government for Zero dollars and his name was Abner Doble.

Those two brothers that I mentioned were building racing cars in the hoosier state, they eventuially got into building road cars but their company was bought out by another who told them to build the best car in the world but the owner of this new company also got a loan from the government to develop this fantastic car for Zero dollars and the car and bothers name was Duesenberg.

It is amazing that we need to spur growth of an industry through the government, one thing that should not happen is grants and loans for things that are and should always be consumer driven. It is innovaiton that drives the auto industry, the electric car is here but unless people want to buy it right from the start, then it should not go anywhere.

Someone who works for GM said to me that the interest rate of these loans needs to be set about 30% and no less. The reason is that these loans are not really loans that the government has money in the bank to lend out in the first place, they are funded by debt and the loans are made to make it look like that the government makes money on the loan when it is paid but in fact the country, the tax payer is on the hook for the interest of the debt that amounts to 24% of the total of the loan. Government new math - there is a real reason for the department of Education, go figure.
 
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