C19 Topics

Pilgrim

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
New study from Johns Hopkins shows negligible benefit from covid lockdowns. Wonder if this information will effect federal and state policies going forward, or will Fauci and blue state governors even read it?

"According to the study, “lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality,” and in the U.S. and Europe, “only reduced COVID-19 mortality by .2% on average...
What the lockdowns did do is have “enormous economic and social costs...
The researchers conclude that “lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.”


 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
New study from Johns Hopkins shows negligible benefit from covid lockdowns.
I saw this first hand when Gov. DeSantis locked down our state. While businesses shut down as ordered, all of them did not so a fair amount of human activity continued. The people who were ordered to stay at home and keep their distance did not do so in large enough numbers to make the lockdown work.

In theory, we can kill a virus completely with an effective lockdown in which everyone is fully compliant. If a virus cannot physically spread, it will die off. But compliance is the key and people simply do not do that. So those who say lockdowns do not work are correct.

This means we are in a deep, deep, world of hurt if a more deadly variant of COVID-19 emerges. Previous variants have been bad enough. Millions have been killed by them. A more deadly variant would be worse still.

The fact that lockdowns do not work is not something to be celebrated. It's an item of concern that prompts us to look for better ways to beat the virus or at least manage it in a way that allows to live reasonably normal lives.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
This article provides good food for thought. It raises two important questions:

1. "One of the great mysteries that has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic — and one that’s still being investigated by infectious disease specialists — is why some people catch Covid and others don’t, even when they’re equally exposed to the virus."

2. "Another question that has arisen during the pandemic is why two people with Covid may respond so differently to the infection; one could have heavy symptoms, for instance, and the other could be asymptomatic."

The article says, "An increasing amount of research is being devoted to the reasons why some people never seem to get Covid — a so-called 'never Covid' cohort," and it explains the present state of that research.

I think it is fair to say that regarding COVID-19, nothing is true in all cases. Vaccines help, but not in all cases. COVID-19 kills people, puts them in hospitals, and/or makes them very sick, but not in all cases. People who get infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic, but not in all cases. Because COVID-19 easily spreads, it is a serious threat to people, but not in all cases. COVID-19 is deadly or more serious for people with underlying conditions, but not in all cases. COVID-19 is more deadly or serious for older people, but not in all cases. Scientists and researchers develop true facts, but the facts are not applicable in all cases. Certain medicines are effective in treating or preventing COVID-19, but not in all cases.

Far too much of the COVID-19 debate hinges on people's willingness to stridently (and ignorantly) embrace certain aspects of our COVID-19 reality and assert those as if they were true in all cases. It seems to me the wiser approach is to think in terms of probabilities, not absolutes. Regarding COVID-19, if you believe something is true in all cases, you will be continually frustrated by the exceptions that undermine your absolute of choice.
 
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Pilgrim

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
New study from Johns Hopkins shows negligible benefit from covid lockdowns. Wonder if this information will effect federal and state policies going forward, or will Fauci and blue state governors even read it?

If anyone wants to know the benefits of lockdowns when effectively implemented - along with an effective COVID response overall - I'd suggest that they give that nice Lady Prime Minister down in New Zealand a call:

New Zealand ends 2021 with one of world’s best Covid outcomes – but it wasn’t all good news | New Zealand | The Guardian
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
None of this is cut and dry. Some of what Trump said was correct and some was incorrect. So too with DeSantis. I do agree with the statement that COVID-19 did not crush the economy, government crushed the economy. It's also worth noting that the prominent experts are not talking shutdowns any more. They seem to have learned that, because people simply do not comply with shutdown orders, shutdowns are an ineffective way to fight the virus while being a highly way to crush the economy.

With the benefit of hindsight, we would have been better off keeping businesses and schools open while pouring resources into vaccinations, field hospitals, therapeutics, more research and the like.

Talking about shutdowns, Trump once said the cure is worse than the disease, or words to that effect. I tend to agree.

Shutting things down will not stop the virus, and letting the virus run will not stop the deaths and devastating illnesses. That's the pickle we're in. I think it wise to note the difference between the economy and the virus. The economy is not the virus and the virus is not the economy.

With the benefit of hindsight, those who argued that an unchecked virus would crush the economy were wrong. They wrongly assumed that each affects the other more than they do.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
If anyone wants to know the benefits of lockdowns when effectively implemented - along with an effective COVID response overall - I'd suggest that they give that nice Lady Prime Minister down in New Zealand a call:

New Zealand ends 2021 with one of world’s best Covid outcomes – but it wasn’t all good news | New Zealand | The Guardian
New Zealand is an island, easy to isolate in ways impossible in the U.S. Yes, in theory, lockdowns can work. but as a practical matter in the U.S. they will never work because too few people will comply.
 
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