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Veteran Expediter
BBC News
By Tom Geoghegan
BBC News, Washington
With two more Republicans dropping out of the 2012 presidential race, and others still holding back, the field of candidates to take on President Barack Obama has yet to take shape. Why?
Within a little over a year-and-a-half, the United States could have a new president.
Unlike in many European countries, where an election 18 months away may not register, US campaigns are drawn out by presidential candidates fighting primary contests first.
Usually by this stage, and especially in recent years, the race for the White House would have a wider field of candidates, campaigning and raising funds before the primaries begin early in election year.
Only a few credible candidates have formally declared their intention to run in 2012, while others like Mitt Romney are exploring the option and almost certain to run, without yet officially joining the race
Some believe it's the slowest start for nearly 20 years, when a relatively unknown governor from Arkansas, Bill Clinton, emerged from the pack to unseat President George HW Bush.
This week, another former governor of the Natural State, Mike Huckabee, ruled himself out of the running for the Republican nomination, despite being considered to be one of the frontrunners.
Two days later, business mogul Donald Trump said he also would not run, joining a rather crowded field of GOP (Grand Old Party, as the Republican Party is known) figures who have said the same.
So is the fact people are dropping out, and others holding back, an indication they are running scared?
Not really, says Shaun Bowler, a professor of political science at the University of California at Riverside. It's not unusual to see people change their minds about running.
"We often see candidates dip their toe in the water - then pull it back out again. The commitment to run for president is a huge one and so it isn't surprising that some people have second thoughts, and some people are still on the sidelines thinking it through."
But this period seems a little more in flux than usual because it's uncertain how vulnerable Mr Obama is, he says, and the Republican Party remains quite divided. Both these factors make it hard for people to decide whether to run or get out.
"The big uncertainty remains the economy. It just isn't clear whether it will recover enough jobs or not. If jobs are created, Obama wins; if they are not, he is vulnerable. Right now it isn't clear what it will be like."
The second reason for Republicans' hesitation is found within their party, says Prof Bowler.
"The split between social and fiscal conservatives seems to have died down since 2008 but the Tea Party wing is now out there on the right. The background problem is that the GOP has a problem with minority voters and minorities are an ever-growing share of the electorate.
"The GOP vote base is older, whiter and to some extent more Protestant than the demographic trends. There does not seem to be a candidate - yet - who can navigate those different currents. The GOP needs a new Reagan and it isn't clear that they have what they need this time."
There is also the advantage Mr Obama gains simply from being the incumbent. Only three sitting presidents have lost an election since World War II - Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush.
A president has name recognition, a war chest of money and can sit back and watch while the other party's candidates fight tooth and nail with each other to get the nod.
The two-term limit means Mr Obama will have to step down in 2016 if he wins re-election next year
That means some of the Republicans may be biding their time, says Steve Mitchell of political polling company Mitchell Research.
"It's a daunting task and whenever you talk about unseating an incumbent, especially one with the ability to raise the money Barack Obama has been able to raise, you think twice and think: four more years, run in an open presidency when you have a much better opportunity."
But he thinks a good Republican candidate could yet emerge and capitalise on the disquiet people are feeling about the economy.
"You would always bet a president will be re-elected but the longer this anger goes on and if unemployment is still up at 7-8% and gas prices are above four dollars a gallon in a year from now, then Obama has a very difficult task."
Cash carrot
What's different this time is people feel there's more to lose by entering the race early than there is to be gained, says John Avlon, author of Wingnuts: How the Lunatic Fringe is Hijacking America.
more
BBC News - Are Republicans reluctant to take on Obama?
By Tom Geoghegan
BBC News, Washington
With two more Republicans dropping out of the 2012 presidential race, and others still holding back, the field of candidates to take on President Barack Obama has yet to take shape. Why?
Within a little over a year-and-a-half, the United States could have a new president.
Unlike in many European countries, where an election 18 months away may not register, US campaigns are drawn out by presidential candidates fighting primary contests first.
Usually by this stage, and especially in recent years, the race for the White House would have a wider field of candidates, campaigning and raising funds before the primaries begin early in election year.
Only a few credible candidates have formally declared their intention to run in 2012, while others like Mitt Romney are exploring the option and almost certain to run, without yet officially joining the race
Some believe it's the slowest start for nearly 20 years, when a relatively unknown governor from Arkansas, Bill Clinton, emerged from the pack to unseat President George HW Bush.
This week, another former governor of the Natural State, Mike Huckabee, ruled himself out of the running for the Republican nomination, despite being considered to be one of the frontrunners.
Two days later, business mogul Donald Trump said he also would not run, joining a rather crowded field of GOP (Grand Old Party, as the Republican Party is known) figures who have said the same.
So is the fact people are dropping out, and others holding back, an indication they are running scared?
Not really, says Shaun Bowler, a professor of political science at the University of California at Riverside. It's not unusual to see people change their minds about running.
"We often see candidates dip their toe in the water - then pull it back out again. The commitment to run for president is a huge one and so it isn't surprising that some people have second thoughts, and some people are still on the sidelines thinking it through."
But this period seems a little more in flux than usual because it's uncertain how vulnerable Mr Obama is, he says, and the Republican Party remains quite divided. Both these factors make it hard for people to decide whether to run or get out.
"The big uncertainty remains the economy. It just isn't clear whether it will recover enough jobs or not. If jobs are created, Obama wins; if they are not, he is vulnerable. Right now it isn't clear what it will be like."
The second reason for Republicans' hesitation is found within their party, says Prof Bowler.
"The split between social and fiscal conservatives seems to have died down since 2008 but the Tea Party wing is now out there on the right. The background problem is that the GOP has a problem with minority voters and minorities are an ever-growing share of the electorate.
"The GOP vote base is older, whiter and to some extent more Protestant than the demographic trends. There does not seem to be a candidate - yet - who can navigate those different currents. The GOP needs a new Reagan and it isn't clear that they have what they need this time."
There is also the advantage Mr Obama gains simply from being the incumbent. Only three sitting presidents have lost an election since World War II - Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush.
A president has name recognition, a war chest of money and can sit back and watch while the other party's candidates fight tooth and nail with each other to get the nod.
The two-term limit means Mr Obama will have to step down in 2016 if he wins re-election next year
That means some of the Republicans may be biding their time, says Steve Mitchell of political polling company Mitchell Research.
"It's a daunting task and whenever you talk about unseating an incumbent, especially one with the ability to raise the money Barack Obama has been able to raise, you think twice and think: four more years, run in an open presidency when you have a much better opportunity."
But he thinks a good Republican candidate could yet emerge and capitalise on the disquiet people are feeling about the economy.
"You would always bet a president will be re-elected but the longer this anger goes on and if unemployment is still up at 7-8% and gas prices are above four dollars a gallon in a year from now, then Obama has a very difficult task."
Cash carrot
What's different this time is people feel there's more to lose by entering the race early than there is to be gained, says John Avlon, author of Wingnuts: How the Lunatic Fringe is Hijacking America.
more
BBC News - Are Republicans reluctant to take on Obama?
