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You are correct. I agree.

That is entirely possible. Yes. And there are counties where Biden has that lead. But the question is not how the candidates are doing in this county or that now. It's how they will do statewide, and nationwide, after all the votes are counted.

No surprise there. Rasmussen has always been a few points more favorable toward Trump than most others.

Data From the Trafalger website. Some of the Trafalger data is weeks old. FiveThirtyEight/Trafalger AZ (11) Biden +3.5/Trump +5.0 FL (29) Biden +3.8/Trump +3.1 GA (16) Biden +0.9/Trump +6.5 IA (6) Biden +1.0/Not Listed MI (16) Biden +8.0/Trump +0.6 MN (10) Biden +7.9/Trump +0.4 NV (6) Biden...

The news stories are coming in following last night's debate. Answering the question, "Who won the debate?" depends on how you define the win. Is is about likability? Truthfulness? Voter minds changed? Candidate poise? Special jabs placed by one candidate against the next? Having read a range...

In this Fox News article, Trafalger's chief pollster speaks of the other polls saying, “What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote." Is there such a thing as hidden Trump voters that the other pollsters are missing? If so, will these shy voters turn...

That depends on the question asked. I started posting weekly national FiveThirtyEight poll summary results here, acknowledging that national polls and Electoral College results are two different things. My purpose in posting the weekly national results was -- and still is -- to provide a handy...

Hearing from who? Which polls? What time frame? I have no knowledge of polls tightening or widening beyond the FiveThirtyEight summary I've pointed to in this thread. RealClearPolitics is a similar summary service. If the polls are moving in one direction or another, it is fair to say that would...

Based on poll results, it appears Biden's recliner strategy is working.

The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of Florida polls shows today's number is Biden +3.6. They provide a handy at-a-glance chart here that shows the polling range over recent months. While the range varies, Biden has been ahead of Trump every week since early April. Above, I said (in this post), "The...

My post spoke of research done by three professors from three universities, working together to gauge the effect of rallies. They studied the effects of Trump rallies done in 2016. Neither I nor the study mentioned "turning the corner." I'm not sure how your question pertains to my post or the...

Fair point.

You are correct about rallies stoking enthusiasm. But the enthusiasm is not one-sided. From NBC (source) "In a study of the 2016 race, researchers looked at fundraising on the day of a Trump event and found that in the regions where the events were held, Clinton saw a significantly greater...

I have personally worked a few campaigns and have been close to other operatives who worked other campaigns. There was a time when I saw fit to question the accuracy of a poll, and because of my position in the campaign, was able to talk to the director of this major newspaper's polling...

A continual theme in this forum is poll inaccuracy. Below is a snapshot of the polls as they stand to date. I share this not to argue about the accuracy or inaccuracy of today's polling, but to document what the polls say one month before the election. After the election, we can go back and see...

Actually, it may be the very thing the Biden campaign manager needs to say to keep Democratic voter complacency from setting in. For weeks, Democrats have been hearing about Biden's healthy lead in the polls. That may move some Democratic voters to stay home on Election Day since Biden is...

It's the same in our community. Trump supporters regularly gather on a busy intersection to wave their Trump flags and happily receive friendly horn honks and thumbs-up signs. There are no Biden flag wavers and few Biden lawn signs to be seen (partly because they are frequently stolen when...

"Could you imagine if I lose?" Trump said on Friday. "I'm not going to feel so good. Maybe I'll have to leave the country, I don't know." If Trump loses the election, he also loses the ability to keep prosecutors at bay by using the power of the presidency. If Trump flees the U.S. to avoid...

OK. I understand now. Thank you for the explanation.

Just last night, in this post, I questioned the wisdom of Trump discouraging his voters from voting early by mail. It seems the Trump campaign now agrees. This morning, CBS reported: "President Trump's campaign has launched a social media ad blitz aimed at encouraging supporters to vote by...