The Trump Card...

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Trump "The Crypto President" a Bust

During the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump pivoted from calling crypto a "scam" to branding himself the "Crypto President." This shift was fueled by massive support from industry billionaires like David Sacks, who hosted a $12 million fundraiser for him, and companies like Ripple and Coinbase, which poured over $130 million into pro-crypto super PACs.

On election night and through his inauguration, the excitement reached a fever pitch. Trump appointed Sacks as his White House AI and Crypto Czar, and the administration moved to establish a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." This optimism drove Bitcoin to a staggering all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025.

However, the "Trump Trade" soured. A combination of massive institutional ETF outflows, a pivot toward traditional assets like gold, and fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve caused a market-wide collapse. By early February 2026, Bitcoin plummeted below $64,000, effectively wiping out every dollar of gain made since his 2024 election victory. Other ventures, including the Trump family's $TRUMP meme coin and World Liberty Financial token, followed suit, with some losing over 80% of their peak value. (the above history is from Gemini).

I can't help but wonder what is going through the minds of the people who contributed millions of dollars to "buy" the US Government support of crypto, and the suckers who bought into the Trump crypto hype only to see their crypto in the loss column. Bitcoin chart below.

By the way, Trump's media company stock (symbol DJT is near it's all time low also. In contrast, the S&P 500 and the Dow 30 is setting record highs.

But it's all good, right? Trump is a great businessman, right?

His money-losing media company stock crash does not matter. His crypto debacles do not matter. His prior bankruptcies do not matter. His multiple documented frauds do not matter. Trump is a great businessman, right?


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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
The Markets Don't Trust Government Data Any More

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report. The news headline is: "U.S. payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.3%" (CNBC).

This is a strongly positive report, but there is a problem. People don't believe it.

In the past, a report like this -- a jobs beat of +130k where +80k was expected -- would have been a shock that stoked certain asset classes. The dollar would have spiked, yields would have soared, and gold would have faced a massive flush.

Instead, the markets are calling the bluff. The Dollar Index is sinking, Treasury yields are falling to five-week lows, and gold is up 2%.

Voting with their wallets, traders are signaling they no longer believe the headline. The price action is telling Trump his manipulated data it's wrong and without credibility.

How do the markets and I know Trump is manipulating government data? That became clear as day when he fired Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics just after the July 2025 report showed a significant slowdown. The markets trusted McEntarfer, a 20-year career professional through several administrations. her. They do not trust Trump.

Trump and his supporters say that the data needs to be collected and reported in more modern and pertinent ways (or words to that effect). OK, but if his new way was credible, you would not see the markets dismissing his reports today, and even the Federal Reserve Bank looking for more reliable sources.

The markets are adapting. Their need to do so is yet another indicator of the rot Trump's self-serving, ethically-bereft way of being is infusing into every aspect of government.

It will take a generation to undo the damage he has done and continues to do. The sooner he is out of office, the better.
 
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Ragman

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Retired Expediter
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Influence at the highest level
Interesting piece but other than a certain meeting and a certain phone call, there are few facts, and even the meeting and call report is vague. The piece draws no conclusions and I can't either with more info. Am I suspicious of wrongdoing or corruption? Absolutely ... this is the Trump administration and Trump himself involved. But without more facts, there is little to conclude.
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
The Markets Don't Trust Government Data Any More

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report. The news headline is: "U.S. payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.3%" (CNBC).

This is a strongly positive report, but there is a problem. People don't believe it.

In the past, a report like this -- a jobs beat of +130k where +80k was expected -- would have been a shock that stoked certain asset classes. The dollar would have spiked, yields would have soared, and gold would have faced a massive flush.

Instead, the markets are calling the bluff. The Dollar Index is sinking, Treasury yields are falling to five-week lows, and gold is up 2%.

Voting with their wallets, traders are signaling they no longer believe the headline. The price action is telling Trump his manipulated data it's wrong and without credibility.

How do the markets and I know Trump is manipulating government data? That became clear as day when he fired Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics just after the July 2025 report showed a significant slowdown. The markets trusted McEntarfer, a 20-year career professional through several administrations. her. They do not trust Trump.

Trump and his supporters say that the data needs to be collected and reported in more modern and pertinent ways (or words to that effect). OK, but if his new way was credible, you would not see the markets dismissing his reports today, and even the Federal Reserve Bank looking for more reliable sources.

The markets are adapting. Their need to do so is yet another indicator of the rot Trump's self-serving, ethically-bereft way of being is infusing into every aspect of government.

It will take a generation to undo the damage he has done and continues to do. The sooner he is out of office, the better.
The Trump economy is working. Deficits coming down. Tariffs and the threat to use them have proven to be beneficial. People are.just starting to get their bigger refunds. Economy will boom even bigger. Trump was right, again.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
The Trump economy is working. Deficits coming down. Tariffs and the threat to use them have proven to be beneficial. People are.just starting to get their bigger refunds. Economy will boom even bigger. Trump was right, again.
Can you quantify any of this from direct sources (not Grok or other AI)? Use AI to find the sources, but show us the sources themselves. Raw data.

For example, here I used Gemini to find this recent news item:

The latest Federal Reserve G.19 report, released on February 6, 2026, shows that total consumer credit surged by $24.05 billion in December. This was triple the market expectation of $8 billion and marks a significant acceleration from the previous month.

The jump was driven by a massive spike in revolving credit (primarily credit cards), which increased by $13.85 billion. This suggests that despite the "stable" jobs headlines, households are increasingly leaning on high-interest debt to maintain their spending levels

The raw data that backs this up is Here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/

Question: If the economy is doing so well, why are consumers maxing out their credit cards at an increasing and alarming rate?

Here's another example:

The University of Michigan's preliminary report for February 2026 shows a consumer sentiment index of 57.3, which represents a stark 11.4% decline from the 64.7 level recorded in February 2025. Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Question: If the economy is doing so well, why has consumer sentiment plunged from year-ago levels? Why do people feel so sh*tt*y about Trump's economy?

Here is another example and Question:

If the economy is doing so well, why is year-over-year inflation increasing?
Data Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Can you quantify any of this from direct sources (not Grok or other AI)? Use AI to find the sources, but show us the sources themselves. Raw data.

For example, here I used Gemini to find this recent news item:

The latest Federal Reserve G.19 report, released on February 6, 2026, shows that total consumer credit surged by $24.05 billion in December. This was triple the market expectation of $8 billion and marks a significant acceleration from the previous month.

The jump was driven by a massive spike in revolving credit (primarily credit cards), which increased by $13.85 billion. This suggests that despite the "stable" jobs headlines, households are increasingly leaning on high-interest debt to maintain their spending levels

The raw data that backs this up is Here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/

Question: If the economy is doing so well, why are consumers maxing out their credit cards at an increasing and alarming rate?

Here's another example:

The University of Michigan's preliminary report for February 2026 shows a consumer sentiment index of 57.3, which represents a stark 11.4% decline from the 64.7 level recorded in February 2025. Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Question: If the economy is doing so well, why has consumer sentiment plunged from year-ago levels? Why do people feel so sh*tt*y about Trump's economy?

Here is another example and Question:

If the economy is doing so well, why is year-over-year inflation increasing?
Data Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

View attachment 24614
It took a little while to dig out of the Biden doldrums.
IMG_6432.jpegIMG_6429.pngIMG_6431.jpegIMG_6428.jpeg
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Your happy dance said, "The Trump economy is working. Deficits coming down. Tariffs and the threat to use them have proven to be beneficial. People are.just starting to get their bigger refunds. Economy will boom even bigger. Trump was right, again."

But you quantified the difference between gvt and private sector employment. In other words, you changed the subject. Back to your original point, what deficits are coming down? How do you know people are actually getting bigger refunds and what kind of refunds are you talking about?

I notice you chose not to answer the 3 questions I asked above. I'll ask them again. If Trump is right again, why is inflation higher than a year ago, why are people increasing their consumer credit at an alarming rate, and why is consumer sentiment so much lower than it was a year ago?
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Can you quantify any of this from direct sources (not Grok or other AI)? Use AI to find the sources, but show us the sources themselves. Raw data.

For example, here I used Gemini to find this recent news item:

The latest Federal Reserve G.19 report, released on February 6, 2026, shows that total consumer credit surged by $24.05 billion in December. This was triple the market expectation of $8 billion and marks a significant acceleration from the previous month.

The jump was driven by a massive spike in revolving credit (primarily credit cards), which increased by $13.85 billion. This suggests that despite the "stable" jobs headlines, households are increasingly leaning on high-interest debt to maintain their spending levels

The raw data that backs this up is Here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/

Question: If the economy is doing so well, why are consumers maxing out their credit cards at an increasing and alarming rate?

Here's another example:

The University of Michigan's preliminary report for February 2026 shows a consumer sentiment index of 57.3, which represents a stark 11.4% decline from the 64.7 level recorded in February 2025. Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Question: If the economy is doing so well, why has consumer sentiment plunged from year-ago levels? Why do people feel so sh*tt*y about Trump's economy?

Here is another example and Question:

If the economy is doing so well, why is year-over-year inflation increasing?
Data Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

View attachment 24614
Give it a little more time. Bigger tax refunds are coming.
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Your happy dance said, "The Trump economy is working. Deficits coming down. Tariffs and the threat to use them have proven to be beneficial. People are.just starting to get their bigger refunds. Economy will boom even bigger. Trump was right, again."

But you quantified the difference between gvt and private sector employment. In other words, you changed the subject. Back to your original point, what deficits are coming down? How do you know people are actually getting bigger refunds and what kind of refunds are you talking about?

I notice you chose not to answer the 3 questions I asked above. I'll ask them again. If Trump is right again, why is inflation higher than a year ago, why are people increasing their consumer credit at an alarming rate, and why is consumer sentiment so much lower than it was a year ago?
You know with credit card debt, once you have it, the debt snowballs even larger If you don’t tackle it.There is a cumulative effect from the past few years under Biden’s lousy economy.So it will take some time . An increase in wages and workers leaving part time jobs to better paying full time employment in the vastly improving Trump economy will help greatly with the credit card debt and other problems.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Gemini Confirms, and I concede that the tax cuts from the Big Beautiful Bill are significant and real.

It is also important to note that: the bill has a net cost of $3.4 trillion over the 2025–2034 period, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). When you factor in the additional interest payments on the national debt, the total impact rises to approximately $4.1 trillion.

That's a $4.1 trillion increase in the national debt. No small thing. Bond market crash coming soon because of it.

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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
All This Trade War Mayhem and Import Taxes ... And For What?

In the international trade arena, Trump launched trade wars against pretty much every country in the world, including our allies. The whole idea was to reduce the US trade deficit. With the 2025 full-year results now in, we see the mayhem and damage to our relationship with our allies Trump sparked was all for NOTHING!

All the stress and pain suffered by American companies as they struggled to cope with Trump's insanity are real. Yet the trade deficit has not changed. THE TRADE DEFICIT HAS NOT CHANGED!!! We paid and continue to pay a steep price for Trump's trade policies and got NOTHING in return.

The import taxes (tariffs) did extract billions of dollars from American pockets in the form of higher consumer prices or profit reductions of US importers. Trump repeatedly lies about the foreign countries paying the tariffs. The foreign countries do not pay them. The tariff money Trump boasts about in the US Treasury is tax money paid by Americans. In that, Trump has imposed one of the largest tax increases ever seen in the US.

"The U.S. trade deficit swelled in December, closing out a year in which the imbalance was essentially unchanged despite efforts by the Trump administration to close the wide gap." (Source)
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
And still, the Maga morons continue to relish his swill.

November can't come soon enough.
It's not just the "MAGA morons" you see on TV parading their stupidity about as if it's a flag to be waved. I know numerous people who are highly intelligent, highly educated, and successful in business and life that buy into Trump's swill as well. I have yet to make sense of this phenomenon. Trump is indeed a con man of the highest order.

It astounds me that people who have college degrees in business and passed a lot of exams to get them cannot discern who pays the tariff tax when it is imposed. You can literally see Americans paying the tariff price and the actual taxes to the US government, and seeing that, many will tell you a foreign government pays the tax ... because Trump says so.
 
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