Oil at $150 by 4th of July

greg334

Veteran Expediter
Now "The Saudi Cabinet has instructed Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi to call for a meeting in the near future that will include representatives of oil-producing countries, consumers and companies that work in extracting, exporting and selling oil to look into the price hike, its causes and how to deal with it,"
 

jpalmer

Seasoned Expediter
Hey guys,

haven't posted her for awhile, Shut down my courier business and went back into financials and decided to focus on my music again......

I just wanted to say congress has a farm bill right now that will end the enron loophole and create more regulation laws in the commodities field. Ever sense clinton signed that bill we've seen oil rise every single year. That loophole opened up the market for its speculation that we've seen. Unless oil does hit 200 a barrel i don't think we'll see a recession. The reason i say that is consumers are still spending. Even though the media says they are not. I have a friend who works at garden Ridge. The store he works at is doing an everage daily comp of 25% over last year. Last thursday his store did 80 thousand dollars during a sale. Saturday and sunday it was around 85 thousand in sales...Even though consumers are being pinched right now. They can still spend. $200 a barrel will be a different story..I don't think we'll get there. If that bill passes, which its extremely likely. There is going to be a massive retrace in oil prices on the market......

what needs to happen is, Curve the speculation first. Then address the demand issues.....Not even two weeks ago investors were shorting oil based on low demand numbers. Now today they are buying because of demand concerns...HELLO! Speculation is the key issue here...
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
I am curious on how our regulations effect the London futures exchange?

We can cap our speculation but the world is not effected by it, it will screw us in the long run.
 

jpalmer

Seasoned Expediter
Im not sure how much the london exchange effects our prices considering oil is bought using US dollars. But that Bill will also effectively BAN anybody from trading oil in our markets outside of the US....
 

CharlesD

Expert Expediter
Just require anyone buying a barrel of oil to take possession of the actual oil. That would take care of the speculation really quick.
 

jpalmer

Seasoned Expediter
Here is a nice article i found, This is a part of it..This is basically what the farm bill wants to eliminate

“Until recently, US energy futures were traded exclusively on regulated exchanges within the United States, like the NYMEX, which are subject to extensive oversight by the CFTC, including ongoing monitoring to detect and prevent price manipulation or fraud. In recent years, however, there has been a tremendous growth in the trading of contracts that look and are structured just like futures contracts, but which are traded on unregulated OTC electronic markets. Because of their similarity to futures contracts they are often called “futures look-alikes.”

The only practical difference between futures look-alike contracts and futures contracts is that the look-alikes are traded in unregulated markets whereas futures are traded on regulated exchanges. The trading of energy commodities by large firms on OTC electronic exchanges was exempted from CFTC oversight by a provision inserted at the behest of Enron and other large energy traders into the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 in the waning hours of the 106th Congress.

The impact on market oversight has been substantial. NYMEX traders, for example, are required to keep records of all trades and report large trades to the CFTC. These Large Trader Reports, together with daily trading data providing price and volume information, are the CFTC’s primary tools to gauge the extent of speculation in the markets and to detect, prevent, and prosecute price manipulation. CFTC Chairman Reuben Jeffrey recently stated: “The Commission’s Large Trader information system is one of the cornerstones of our surveillance program and enables detection of concentrated and coordinated positions that might be used by one or more traders to attempt manipulation.”

In contrast to trades conducted on the NYMEX, traders on unregulated OTC electronic exchanges are not required to keep records or file Large Trader Reports with the CFTC, and these trades are exempt from routine CFTC oversight. In contrast to trades conducted on regulated futures exchanges, there is no limit on the number of contracts a speculator may hold on an unregulated OTC electronic exchange, no monitoring of trading by the exchange itself, and no reporting of the amount of outstanding contracts (“open interest”) at the end of each day.”

Then, apparently to make sure the way was opened really wide to potential market oil price manipulation, in January 2006, the Bush Administration’s CFTC permitted the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the leading operator of electronic energy exchanges, to use its trading terminals in the United States for the trading of US crude oil futures on the ICE futures exchange in London – called “ICE Futures.”

Previously, the ICE Futures exchange in London had traded only in European energy commodities – Brent crude oil and United Kingdom natural gas. As a United Kingdom futures market, the ICE Futures exchange is regulated solely by the UK Financial Services Authority. In 1999, the London exchange obtained the CFTC’s permission to install computer terminals in the United States to permit traders in New York and other US cities to trade European energy commodities through the ICE exchange.
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
Im not sure how much the london exchange effects our prices considering oil is bought using US dollars. But that Bill will also effectively BAN anybody from trading oil in our markets outside of the US....

Well first off, the markets are all interconnected. Hong Kong, Toyko, London, Dubai and the US markets have a lot of direct interconnections when it comes to trading any commodity. This interconnection is not physical but emotional. Speculation is an emotional thing, not scientific.

Second, the dollar is the trading vehicle, not in control of the US. There has been a start to use the Euro but that seems to be losing strength due to the fact that the Euro is not a freely traded currency and it is being artificially propped up by EU member states, primarily Germany and France.

Third thing is, like the Oil Windfall Profits cr*p that Obama is selling the ignorant people, any regulations to stunt the price of oil or control it will make it worst for us in both the short and long term. Like price controls of the 70's, this will lead us exactly down the same path that we had in the 70's with inflation.

Fourth speaking of Obama's socialist idea of taxing the RICH, I was reading a really interesting article about oil that I got from one of the liberal websites of all places trashing Obama. There is a lot of talk from the Obama camp that there is a need to take the profits from the oil companies to be fair to the middle class. well the author of the article pointed out that there is one slight problem, the middle class are the ones who actually own the publicly traded oil stock and they depend on the profits in a lot of ways.

This information comes from Bill Clinton's former undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs Robert J. Shapiro.
  • 43% of oil and natural gas company shares are owned by mutual fund and asset management companies that have mutual funds. Mutual funds manage accounts for 55 million U.S. households with a median income of $68,700.


  • 27% of shares are owned by other institutional investors like pension funds. In 2004, more than 2,600 pension funds run by federal, state and local governments held almost $64 billion in shares of U.S. oil and natural gas companies. These funds represent the major retirement security for the nation's current and retired soldiers, teachers, and police and fire personnel at every level of government.


  • 14% of shares are held in IRA and other personal retirement accounts. Forty five million U.S. households have IRA and other personal retirement accounts, with an average account value of just over $22,000.
And he goes on to point out that only 1.5% of all the combine publicly traded stock is actually owned by the oil execs and any one individual.

In reality the only two ways to fix the oil problem is to have a leader in the WH or even congress to say we are going to drill everywhere and we are going to use existing and new technologies to produce more oil.
 
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jpalmer

Seasoned Expediter
Basically it comes down to this, If this country really wants change, The citizens are going to have to do it. They can blame the rich and powerful but we've got to remember something, They are dependant on us more than we are on them. Majority always wins in anything. The laws that i just posted above was all enacted by lobbyist and the Very government the US citizens voted into office. We have to take some of the responsibility for this....Its just not the US that has this issue. China has restricted gas prices by its government. So they won't ever feel the pinch as much as most other nations..People in india are rioting because of gas....
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
Basically it comes down to this, If this country really wants change, The citizens are going to have to do it. They can blame the rich and powerful but we've got to remember something, They are dependant on us more than we are on them. Majority always wins in anything. The laws that i just posted above was all enacted by lobbyist and the Very government the US citizens voted into office. We have to take some of the responsibility for this....Its just not the US that has this issue. China has restricted gas prices by its government. So they won't ever feel the pinch as much as most other nations..People in india are rioting because of gas....

Yes I agree that we are the ones to change it, because we are at fault for the problems in the first place. The greed and selfishness of the people to have a big all inclusive mommy state is the basis for the high fuel prices as much as it is for the health care problems we have.

The difference between say us and the rest of the world is we based our government on a hands off approach to freedoms and until the early 1900's it worked out quite well for the country and everyone. But since the socialist attitude became ensconced in our culture, we have been trying very hard to remove the individual rights to make money as they see fit and replaced it with the state being the decision maker. This is where the idea of a majority rule has led us, away from our representative government and away from any semblance of sane policies for the people who matter.

In making a comparison to China or India, we lower ourselves to the need to justify our lifestyle. What I mean as crazy as this sounds is that we fear guilt in this country and by saying that there is rioting in India or other parts of the world, many here in this country will start to blame us for it as a direct cause without hesitation all the while ignoring the real factors involved. For example the food issue, we don’t have a real shortage of food, our prices are not rising because we are using our own tax money to subsidize our own fuel (in essence returning our money to us in another form) but rather transportation costs are catching up to the market. But we are convinced that the recent rioting is caused by our greed and selfishness of our use of oil to maintain our outrageous lifestyle of SUVs and Soccer moms by using ethanol as a supplement to our oil supply. No where in our media do you see that the EU has mandated bio-fuels and the fact that they can not be self-sufficient in agriculture so they must import more grains to produce bio-fuels that they mandated and they are removing more grains from the market that other countries depend on. No where do you hear that we have the capacity to triple our agricultural output by simply using the land that is idle and eliminate the horrible non-production subsidies.
 

OntarioVanMan

Retired Expediter
Owner/Operator
Now this should be investigated it's just wrong...

We know refiners have cut back production which would lead to buying less crude and using up thier inventories with them knowing speculators are watching...and then declaring lower US inventories and bidding up the price!!
This stinks....

Crude Oil Rises in New York on Speculation of Inventory Decline

By Grant Smith and Christian Schmollinger


June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose in New York on speculation U.S. inventories dropped for a fourth week, raising concern supply may fall short during the summer driving season.

Crude stockpiles probably declined last week by 1.5 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Inventories have lost 19 million barrels since the week ended May 9.
 
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