And they say it is Getting Better....

chefdennis

Veteran Expediter
We have more adjustable rate mortages coming due shortly that are going to go up, foreclosures are still up and not going to get better in the near run, commerical mortages are starting to turn up in large numbers, unemployment it going to go up inspite of the jobs that the government is putting out (cenus takers and the like) states and city budgets are blowing part (some states are offering STATE BUILDINGS FOR SALE to raise capital and now we see that extened unemployent benefits will be running out for approx. 1.5 million people which will start more of a downward spiral for the economy...yeap it is getting better, ask barry....

Prolonged Aid to Unemployed Is Running Out

By ERIK ECKHOLM
Published: August 1, 2009
Prolonged Aid to Unemployed Is Running Out

By ERIK ECKHOLM
Published: August 1, 2009

Over the coming months, as many as 1.5 million jobless Americans will exhaust their unemployment insurance benefits, ending what for some has been a last bulwark against foreclosures and destitution.

Because of emergency extensions already enacted by Congress, laid-off workers in nearly half the states can collect benefits for up to 79 weeks, the longest period since the unemployment insurance program was created in the 1930s. But unemployment in this recession has proved to be especially tenacious, and a wave of job-seekers is using up even this prolonged aid.

Tens of thousands of workers have already used up their benefits, and the numbers are expected to soar in the months to come, reaching half a million by the end of September and 1.5 million by the end of the year, according to new projections by the National Employment Law Project, a private research group.

Unemployment insurance is now a lifeline for nine million Americans, with payments averaging just over $300 per week, varying by state and work history. While many recipients find new jobs before exhausting their benefits, large numbers in the current recession have been unable to find work for a year or more.

Calls are rising for Congress to pass yet another extension this fall, possibly adding 13 more weeks of coverage in states with especially high unemployment. As of June, the national unemployment rate was 9.5 percent, reaching 15.2 percent in Michigan. Even if the recession begins to ease, economists say, jobs will remain scarce for some time to come.

“If more help is not on the way, by September a huge wave of workers will start running out of their critical extended benefits, and many will have nothing left to get by on even as work keeps getting harder to find,” said Maurice Emsellem, a policy director of the employment law project.

For many desperate job seekers, any extension will seem a blessing. Pamela C. Lampley of Dillon, S.C., said she sat outside the post office last month and cried because “it was the first Wednesday in quite some time that I’ve gone to the mailbox and left without an unemployment check.” The jobless rate in her state is 12.1 percent.

Ms. Lampley, 40, who is married with three children, lost her job as a human resources officer in January 2008 and had been receiving $351 a week, which covered the groceries and gas. Even so, she and her husband, who still has work as a machinist, were sinking into debt. Now, still poorer, she feels devastated because they cannot buy their son a laptop to take to college and she cannot give her 9-year-old son money for the movies.

In Ohio, where unemployment is 11.1 percent, Cathy Nixon, 39, a mother of four teenagers from Lorain, has been out of work for much of the time since June 2007, and her benefits — $313 a week — run out in September. Ms. Nixon is already fighting foreclosure and said she feared that when the benefits end, “we’ll be homeless.” She was unable to afford summer camp and baseball activities for her children, despite scrimping on basics.

Raymond Crouse of Columbus operated heavy construction machinery but has found no work since 2007. Mr. Crouse is 72 and receives Social Security but said that was not enough to live on. The $190 a month he has received in unemployment benefits enabled him and his wife to hang on to the house they bought 15 years ago, he said. But with the benefits ending next month, he fears that they will not keep up.

In ordinary times, employers pay into a state insurance fund, and workers who lose jobs draw benefits for up to 26 weeks. During recessions, Congress has often paid for extended coverage for an extra 13 or even 20 weeks.

In 2008, as the recession deepened, Congress provided 33 extra weeks of benefits. Earlier this year, President Obama’s stimulus plan offered an additional 20 weeks in states where unemployment surpassed 8 percent, if they adopted new federally recommended rules governing these extra weeks. (South Carolina did not make the changes, and benefits there are running out more quickly.)

Currently, people can draw benefits for up to 79 weeks in 24 states and from 46 weeks to 72 weeks in others.

The stimulus law also, through the end of the year, provided an extra $25 a week to all recipients, exempted a portion of benefits from federal income tax and subsidized Cobra health payments for the unemployed.

Representative Jim McDermott, Democrat of Washington and chairman of the House Subcommittee on Income Security and Family Support, said he would introduce a bill in September to provide yet another 13 weeks of coverage in states with unemployment rates of 9 percent or higher. “Legislators will line up quickly when they start getting calls from desperate constituents,” he said in a telephone interview.

The cost would be $40 billion to $70 billion, but the expense would be temporary, Mr. McDermott said.

Some business groups remain skeptical. Douglas Holmes, president of UWC, a group in Washington that represents businesses on unemployment issues, said that there were early glimmers of economic progress and that it was premature to extend benefits again. The money might be better spent, Mr. Holmes said, creating jobs and training people to move into emerging industries.

Traditionally, many economists have been leery of prolonged unemployment benefits because they can reduce the incentive to seek work. But that should not be a concern now because jobs remain so scarce, said Lawrence Katz, a labor economist at Harvard.

For every job that becomes available, about six people are looking, Dr. Katz said. “Unemployment insurance gives income to families who are really suffering and can’t find work even if they are hustling to look,” he said.

With the economy still listing, he added, a temporary extension can provide a quick fiscal stimulus. And, Dr. Katz said, when people exhaust unemployment and health insurance, many end up applying for disability benefits, which become a large, unending drain on the Treasury.

Ms. Lampley, whose benefits have ended, described the tough job market. She used to make nearly $15 an hour and has unsuccessfully sought office and clerical work at $8 an hour. Mr. Crouse said that even if new building projects were planned, construction slows in the winter cold.

And Ms. Nixon said that she had interviewed endlessly for jobs in real estate and office work and that even her teenagers could not find fast-food jobs because laid-off adults were filling them.

“I can’t find a job,” she said, “and you can’t survive if you don’t work.”


Over the coming months, as many as 1.5 million jobless Americans will exhaust their unemployment insurance benefits, ending what for some has been a last bulwark against foreclosures and destitution.

Because of emergency extensions already enacted by Congress, laid-off workers in nearly half the states can collect benefits for up to 79 weeks, the longest period since the unemployment insurance program was created in the 1930s. But unemployment in this recession has proved to be especially tenacious, and a wave of job-seekers is using up even this prolonged aid.

Tens of thousands of workers have already used up their benefits, and the numbers are expected to soar in the months to come, reaching half a million by the end of September and 1.5 million by the end of the year, according to new projections by the National Employment Law Project, a private research group.

Unemployment insurance is now a lifeline for nine million Americans, with payments averaging just over $300 per week, varying by state and work history. While many recipients find new jobs before exhausting their benefits, large numbers in the current recession have been unable to find work for a year or more.

Calls are rising for Congress to pass yet another extension this fall, possibly adding 13 more weeks of coverage in states with especially high unemployment. As of June, the national unemployment rate was 9.5 percent, reaching 15.2 percent in Michigan. Even if the recession begins to ease, economists say, jobs will remain scarce for some time to come.

“If more help is not on the way, by September a huge wave of workers will start running out of their critical extended benefits, and many will have nothing left to get by on even as work keeps getting harder to find,” said Maurice Emsellem, a policy director of the employment law project.

For many desperate job seekers, any extension will seem a blessing. Pamela C. Lampley of Dillon, S.C., said she sat outside the post office last month and cried because “it was the first Wednesday in quite some time that I’ve gone to the mailbox and left without an unemployment check.” The jobless rate in her state is 12.1 percent.

Ms. Lampley, 40, who is married with three children, lost her job as a human resources officer in January 2008 and had been receiving $351 a week, which covered the groceries and gas. Even so, she and her husband, who still has work as a machinist, were sinking into debt. Now, still poorer, she feels devastated because they cannot buy their son a laptop to take to college and she cannot give her 9-year-old son money for the movies.

In Ohio, where unemployment is 11.1 percent, Cathy Nixon, 39, a mother of four teenagers from Lorain, has been out of work for much of the time since June 2007, and her benefits — $313 a week — run out in September. Ms. Nixon is already fighting foreclosure and said she feared that when the benefits end, “we’ll be homeless.” She was unable to afford summer camp and baseball activities for her children, despite scrimping on basics.

Raymond Crouse of Columbus operated heavy construction machinery but has found no work since 2007. Mr. Crouse is 72 and receives Social Security but said that was not enough to live on. The $190 a month he has received in unemployment benefits enabled him and his wife to hang on to the house they bought 15 years ago, he said. But with the benefits ending next month, he fears that they will not keep up.

In ordinary times, employers pay into a state insurance fund, and workers who lose jobs draw benefits for up to 26 weeks. During recessions, Congress has often paid for extended coverage for an extra 13 or even 20 weeks.

In 2008, as the recession deepened, Congress provided 33 extra weeks of benefits. Earlier this year, President Obama’s stimulus plan offered an additional 20 weeks in states where unemployment surpassed 8 percent, if they adopted new federally recommended rules governing these extra weeks. (South Carolina did not make the changes, and benefits there are running out more quickly.)

Currently, people can draw benefits for up to 79 weeks in 24 states and from 46 weeks to 72 weeks in others.

The stimulus law also, through the end of the year, provided an extra $25 a week to all recipients, exempted a portion of benefits from federal income tax and subsidized Cobra health payments for the unemployed.

Representative Jim McDermott, Democrat of Washington and chairman of the House Subcommittee on Income Security and Family Support, said he would introduce a bill in September to provide yet another 13 weeks of coverage in states with unemployment rates of 9 percent or higher. “Legislators will line up quickly when they start getting calls from desperate constituents,” he said in a telephone interview.

The cost would be $40 billion to $70 billion, but the expense would be temporary, Mr. McDermott said.

Some business groups remain skeptical. Douglas Holmes, president of UWC, a group in Washington that represents businesses on unemployment issues, said that there were early glimmers of economic progress and that it was premature to extend benefits again. The money might be better spent, Mr. Holmes said, creating jobs and training people to move into emerging industries.

Traditionally, many economists have been leery of prolonged unemployment benefits because they can reduce the incentive to seek work. But that should not be a concern now because jobs remain so scarce, said Lawrence Katz, a labor economist at Harvard.

For every job that becomes available, about six people are looking, Dr. Katz said. “Unemployment insurance gives income to families who are really suffering and can’t find work even if they are hustling to look,” he said.

With the economy still listing, he added, a temporary extension can provide a quick fiscal stimulus. And, Dr. Katz said, when people exhaust unemployment and health insurance, many end up applying for disability benefits, which become a large, unending drain on the Treasury.

Ms. Lampley, whose benefits have ended, described the tough job market. She used to make nearly $15 an hour and has unsuccessfully sought office and clerical work at $8 an hour. Mr. Crouse said that even if new building projects were planned, construction slows in the winter cold.

And Ms. Nixon said that she had interviewed endlessly for jobs in real estate and office work and that even her teenagers could not find fast-food jobs because laid-off adults were filling them.

“I can’t find a job,” she said, “and you can’t survive if you don’t work.”
 

chefdennis

Veteran Expediter
And then add record number of businesses filing for BK and fiding it almost impossible to get capital to re-organize:

Default Increase Curbs Bankruptcy Lending as Recoveries Dwindle




By Richard Bravo
July 31 (Bloomberg)
Default Increase Curbs Bankruptcy Lending as Recoveries Dwindle - Bloomberg.com

Companies on the verge of bankruptcy are finding it harder and more expensive than ever to get loans to help nurse them back to health.

With corporate defaults at a six-year high, so-called debtor-in-possession financings dropped to about 23 percent of businesses failing to make debt payments so far this year, the lowest since at least 2003, according to a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Lenders are charging those entering Chapter 11 reorganization a record 7.25 percentage points over benchmark interest rates, on average, even with borrowing costs for issuers of junk-rated bonds the cheapest since September.

DIP loans provide funds to continue operating normally while in Chapter 11. Less available financing will give fewer companies this option and drive more into liquidation, said Darin Schmalz, a director on the Fitch Ratings leveraged finance team in Chicago.
“The playbook is changing,” said Steven Smith, global head of leveraged finance and restructuring at UBS AG in New York. “Very little new capital is flowing into restructuring and Chapter 11 reorganization right now, which is potentially a huge problem. It’s very hard to reorganize companies without new capital.”

The number of businesses filing for liquidation under Chapter 7 of the bankruptcy code rose 60 percent to 30,035 last year, the most since at least 2000, according to the U.S. Courts Web site. Retailers Linens ‘n Things Inc. and Mervyns LLC said last year that they would liquidate rather than reorganize. Richmond, Virginia-based Circuit City Stores Inc. announced it would go out of business in January after seeking court protection in 2008.
Leveraged Loans

The worst credit squeeze since the Great Depression has helped increase U.S. companies’ default rate on bonds to 13.2 percent for the last 12 months, the highest since it reached 16.4 percent in 2002, according to Fitch.

In the leveraged loan market, the trailing 12-month U.S. default rate rose to 8.2 percent at the end of the second quarter, from 2.1 percent a year earlier, according to New York- based Moody’s Investors Service.

DIP financing helps companies to move through Chapter 11 more successfully, according to a 2000 study written by Sandeep Dahiya of Georgetown University; Kose John of New York University’s Stern School of Business; Manju Puri, now at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business in Durham, North Carolina; and Gabriel Ramirez, now with Kennesaw State University’s Coles College of Business in Georgia. Those receiving loans are likely to exit reorganization more quickly, they found.

Delphi Auction

Creditors of Delphi Corp., the former General Motors Corp. car-parts unit that filed for Chapter 11 in 2005, won an auction for some of the company’s assets by bidding the value of the DIP loans they were owed. On July 30, a court approved the sale of the Troy, Michigan-based company’s assets to the lenders and the automaker.

Elliott Management Corp. of New York and Greenwich, Connecticut-based Silver Point Capital LP were among investors making the so-called credit bid. Delphi owed about $3.3 billion on the three classes of its bankruptcy loan as of July 21, according to a regulatory filing.

The two firms will lead a $750 million financing that will be offered through syndication to other lenders, said John Butler Jr., Delphi’s lead bankruptcy lawyer.

Scott Tagliarino, a spokesman for Elliott, and Silver Point spokesman Todd Fogarty both declined to comment.

CIT Loans

The DIP market may also be tested by New York-based CIT Group Inc., which received a $3 billion loan this month to stave off insolvency. The 101-year-old commercial-finance firm has $1 billion in notes maturing in August. CreditSights Inc., a New York-based debt researcher, said July 28 that the company “remains at risk” for filing bankruptcy even if a tender for the debt succeeds.

The offer is “intended to provide CIT with liquidity necessary to ensure that its important base of small and middle market customers continues to have access to credit,” the company said in a July 20 statement.

CIT asked owners of the notes to agree to take a loss through a debt tender. If the offer is accepted, the company may start debt-for-equity exchanges, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Providers of emergency credit to the company include Boston-based hedge fund Baupost Group LLC and Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $842 billion in Newport Beach, California.

Eaton Vance

The money managers’ decision to lend to CIT at an annual interest rate of at least 13 percent may help protect their investment in its bonds. Businesses such as Eaton Vance Corp. are competing with traditional DIP lenders, including New York- based JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. of Charlotte, North Carolina, after financial companies worldwide ran up more than $1.5 trillion in writedowns and credit losses since the start of 2007.

Boston-based Eaton Vance, the largest manager of investments designed to minimize taxes, is raising $1 billion to invest in DIP loans, the firm said in May. Aladdin Capital Holdings LLC of Stamford, Connecticut, a hedge fund overseeing $15 billion, said in February that it began offering bankruptcy credit to take advantage of “massive dislocation” in the market.

“You’re seeing disparate groups of hedge funds putting up competing proposals,” said UBS’s Smith. “You’re seeing more interest and a little bit more competition, which is having the impact of improving terms to the debtor.”

The head of Eaton Vance’s bank-loan group, Scott Page, didn’t return a telephone call for comment. Aladdin’s vice chairman, Neal Neilinger, declined to comment.

Pre-Crunch

Increased competition isn’t pushing bankruptcy-financing costs down to pre-credit crunch levels, even after yields on speculative-grade bonds relative to benchmarks fell to below “distressed” levels, or 10 percentage points, on July 23.
The decline marked the narrowest spread since Sept. 25, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. led credit markets to freeze, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.S. High- Yield Master II Index. The gap was 9.33 percentage points as of yesterday.

The difference between the average cost of DIP loans and benchmark interest rates so far this year compares with 5.3 percentage points in 2008, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch report. It never exceeded 4 percentage points before last year.

Roll-Ups

While DIP financings have reached a record $16.2 billion this year, many are so-called roll-ups of borrowings that existed before the bankruptcy filings, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch report by strategist Jeffrey Rosenberg.

Roll-ups now account for 64 percent of total bankruptcy loans, up from 36 percent in 2008, Rosenberg wrote. Before last year, the proportion of rolled-up loans never exceeded 10 percent.
Lenders seek the feature to improve their standing relative to creditors who don’t participate in a debtor-in-possession transaction, Smith said. Doing so gives them a higher priority for getting repaid, creating a new set of “winners and losers.”

Lyondell Chemical Co., which filed for Chapter 11 on Jan. 6, received a record $8 billion in loans at an interest rate of 10 percentage points over the benchmark after the DIP market had “ceased to operate,” a lawyer representing the Houston-based company, Mark Ellenberg of Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP, said during a Jan. 7 bankruptcy hearing in New York, according to a transcript.

40 Percent

Roll-ups, including commitments from borrowers, made up about 40 percent of the bankruptcy credit, according to Mark Cohen, head of restructuring at Deutsche Bank AG in New York.
Last week, Lyondell’s DIP roll-up was trading at 83.5 cents on the dollar. The portion of the DIP that wasn’t rolled up was trading at 42 cents on the dollar.

Susan Moore, a spokeswoman for Lyondell, declined to comment.

DIP financing may recover as credit markets begin to heal, Cohen said.

Eddie Bauer Inc., a unit of the Bellevue, Washington-based retailer that filed for Chapter 11 last month, received a $100 million loan costing 4 percentage points more than the London interbank offered rate, the common benchmark for such credits, according to Bloomberg data. Banc of America Securities LLC was the lead arranger of the deal.

Recovery Rates

“Market pricing is coming down; new investors are coming in,” Cohen said.

Still, shrinking bankruptcy financing and rising defaults pushed 12-month recovery rates, or the amount of face value an investor can expect to receive from a loan after default, to 43.9 percent in June, down from 65 percent a year earlier, according to Moody’s. The level is lower than any annual average since the ratings company began compiling the data in 1990.

“Recovery values tend to drop as bank lending standards tighten,” said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s in New York. “If you’re a creditor and you see the value of collateral falling, you are going to tighten credit.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Bravo in New York at [email protected]
 

OntarioVanMan

Retired Expediter
Owner/Operator
I think next months unemployment numbers will level off a bit with GM back to work recalled 1,000's of workers and the suppliers "somewhat" gearing up....I see Daimler/Fiat is about to start up the Jeep plant...seen some expedite tractors in there a couple days ago....some activity going on....however shortlived the recalls might be, that will extend UI benefits a little longer....But all the retail outlets closing should also come into play negating any gains in the auto sector.....
The highway construction numbers should be in as well...putting 1,000's to work TEMPORARILY!

NOTICE: I said SHORTLIVED and TEMPORARY!! So don't accuse me of fluffing it...*LOL*
 
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