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My post spoke of research done by three professors from three universities, working together to gauge the effect of rallies. They studied the effects of Trump rallies done in 2016. Neither I nor the study mentioned "turning the corner." I'm not sure how your question pertains to my post or the...

Fair point.

I have personally worked a few campaigns and have been close to other operatives who worked other campaigns. There was a time when I saw fit to question the accuracy of a poll, and because of my position in the campaign, was able to talk to the director of this major newspaper's polling...

A continual theme in this forum is poll inaccuracy. Below is a snapshot of the polls as they stand to date. I share this not to argue about the accuracy or inaccuracy of today's polling, but to document what the polls say one month before the election. After the election, we can go back and see...

Actually, it may be the very thing the Biden campaign manager needs to say to keep Democratic voter complacency from setting in. For weeks, Democrats have been hearing about Biden's healthy lead in the polls. That may move some Democratic voters to stay home on Election Day since Biden is...

It's the same in our community. Trump supporters regularly gather on a busy intersection to wave their Trump flags and happily receive friendly horn honks and thumbs-up signs. There are no Biden flag wavers and few Biden lawn signs to be seen (partly because they are frequently stolen when...

"Could you imagine if I lose?" Trump said on Friday. "I'm not going to feel so good. Maybe I'll have to leave the country, I don't know." If Trump loses the election, he also loses the ability to keep prosecutors at bay by using the power of the presidency. If Trump flees the U.S. to avoid...

OK. I understand now. Thank you for the explanation.

Just last night, in this post, I questioned the wisdom of Trump discouraging his voters from voting early by mail. It seems the Trump campaign now agrees. This morning, CBS reported: "President Trump's campaign has launched a social media ad blitz aimed at encouraging supporters to vote by...

As readers of this thread know, I'm posting poll results week by week as Election Day approaches. My purpose is to document the poll results on certain dates so we can see how accurate or inaccurate the polls were after the votes are counted. There is a wrinkle, however. It's the unusually high...

Coincidental with what? See this page to track Michigan polls and the quality ratings FiveThirtyEight assigns to them. Michigan Polls You are right about the Trafalger Michigan poll. Is there a reason you do not mention the six other Michigan polls shown here? RealClearPolitics - Election 2020...

The man is singing Diane's and my song! After 10 years as expediters, Diane and i came off the road to open a gym (Anytime Fitness Port Orange, FL). Since then, I took up powerlifting and now compete in the Master 3 class (age 60-70). Our gym specializes in active aging. We have numerous members...

Have you seen a doctor for your vertigo? I had a touch of it a while back and learned from my doctor about YouTube videos that show an exercise that can be done to help. In my case, the exercise cured the problem. No more vertigo and the cure was near instant. That said, vertigo is caused by...

Congratulations! Yours is a classic habit-change story. By changing your behavior, you literally rewired the circuits in your brain, such that the circuits that fired before and produced cravings don't fire now. By not using the circuits over time, those neural pathways faded. While the old...

We can pick individual polls to support one point of view or another regarding poll accuracy. My approach is to cite the aggregate of all polls reported by FiveThirtyEight. Within that universe there are polls that will prove to be close to or exactly on the mark, and those what will be further...

Thank you. I see at the top of the chart, the final summary of the polls shows Clinton up by 2.1%, which is EXACTLY the margin she won the popular vote by. As I said above, the national polls do not account for the Electoral College. They measure the popular vote. By this measure, the 2016...

Perhaps for you, Turtle. I remain hopeful that civility will improve. I do not believe people like being at each other's throats. I like to believe that people get tired of fighting and eventually move on to better days. There are numerous Democrats who are bitter about the grievances they...

This is good. It shows the poll results about 3 weeks out from Election Day, 2016 (Nov 8). The closer a poll is taken to Election Day, the more accurate it can be presumed to be as something that projects the outcome. The 2016 data posted above showed Clinton leading in most polls by zero to...

OK. I think I understand your point. Some people lie to the pollsters because they want to make the Democrats feel bad. But I remain confused about how the lying itself actually has that effect. How exactly does lying to a pollster produce this result? A pollster calls a voter. The Trump voter...

I have not heard of Operation Chaos until you mentioned it. A Google search shows Operation Chaos was an effort to get Republicans to vote for Bernie Sanders in the open Democratic Primary in S.C. While the idea got a bit of press and was promoted by Trump and Limbaugh, Republicans did not...