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TCP survey: ‘Light at the end of the tunnel’ for trucking

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The general conclusion by carrier executives is to be cautious in regards to equipment and expansion, according to a report of improving outlooks in the recent Transport Capital Partners quarterly survey.

“Carriers are sensing an improving environment, with fewer interested in selling. At the same time, there appears to be a slight shift to considering equipment acquisitions for replacement but adding only if certain criteria are met,” observed Richard Mikes, a managing partner at TCP.

Thirty-eight percent of carriers surveyed are interested in buying other carriers in the next 18 months, similar to what was reported in surveys in the last two quarters.

More than 70 percent of carriers predict credit availability to stay the same or increase over the next 24 months. While 19.6 percent felt credit availability would decrease over the next 24 months, 27.3 percent responded more optimistically, expecting credit availability to increase.

The survey also found fewer carriers interested in selling over the next six months. “Many carriers are asking themselves ‘Why sell now, when a better time may be in a year when credit and volume conditions and pricing are improving?’” stated Lana Batts, a managing partner at TCP.

Equipment acquisition expectations for the next 12 months have shifted to a slightly more favorable outlook. The number of carriers expecting to acquire under 10 percent  of their fleet dropped to 63 percent from 68 percent in the prior quarter. 26.3 percent reported that they are acquiring 10 to 25 percent of their fleet, up from 23 percent a quarter earlier.

“The current month’s uptick in Class 8 sales is a confirmation of respondents general optimism for the future,” Mikes noted. “However, responses to a question about adding capacity shows some caution is in the air, primarily until rates and volume improve.”

Almost a third of the carriers responded they most likely will add capacity only when the current fleet is fully utilized and rates increase sufficiently, while 16 percent said they had no plans to do so in the foreseeable future. A carrier will not add capacity until the economy improves.

“Clearly carriers believe they will make more money by raising rates than by adding capacity,” Batts said.

Kevin Jones of The Trucker staff can be reached for comment at [email protected] .

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