In The News

Global trade analysts forecast modest recovery next year, broader rebound in 2011

We’ll all have to wait for the freight. That’s the bad news. The good news is that it’s coming a little next year and more in 2011, global trade analysts forecast today.

Global shipping, like trucking, is experiencing “unprecedented demand-supply imbalances,” said representatives of HIS Global lnsight and Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay Research, and although globally there’s a problem of limited trade on top of a drop in consumption, they noted that a Great Depression-era scenario is unlikely, and they forecast a modest recovery next year with a “broader rebound” in 2011.

The interdependency of countries’ economies has exacerbated the recession globally and increased their vulnerability to external forces, noted Paul Bingham, managing director for international global commerce and transportation group, Global Insight, during a special Webcast this morning.

Analysts also warned that national policies of “protectionism” can impede an upturn in the global economy and that financial markets also will be key to a healthy upturn.

Other factors impacting import prices, export competitiveness and trade growth include currency exchange rates, Bingham noted.

Analysts traced the decline of trade in North America, Europe and Japan and the fall-off in the export-led growth of emerging countries such as China, noting that world container trade volume is down 5.9 percent this year.

The good news, they said, is down the road, so to speak.

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