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EYE ON TRUCKING: Everyone’s trying to make dollars and sense out of the fuel situation

We’re sitting here trying to make sense out what’s going on with diesel prices.

Unfortunately, nothing makes cents, only dollars.

Do want to know the scariest thing? We don’t believe the so-called “experts” really have an idea of what’s going to happen, either.

As this is being written in mid-April, the cost of diesel has risen above $4 for the first time in history.

Our spreadsheets tell us that one year ago, the average price of a gallon of diesel was $2.877.

In mid April, it was $4.059, an increase of 41 percent.

The price of a barrel of oil one year ago was $63.

As this is being written, it’s $113, an increase of 79 percent.

The Department of Energy says that West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices, which averaged $72.32 per barrel in 2007, are projected to average $101 per barrel in 2008 and $92.50 per barrel in 2009.

Two responses are in order.

First, since the price of oil was around $93 per barrel at the beginning of 2008, simple math would tell us that the price will remain well above $101 for most of the year.

Second, if the average price does fall to $92.50 in 2009, that would mean diesel prices would fall back down into the range of where they were at the beginning of 2008, which was about $3.37 a gallon.

If you think that will happen, then you’ll be first in line to buy that great swamp land we have to sell in Florida.

In our recent weekly poll on www.thetrucker.com, we asked truckers what methods they favored for curbing and off-setting high diesel prices.

So far, the method getting the most support has been to allow drilling for oil in the U.S.

Some of the truckers also offered comments on other methods.

Here are some of those comments:

“Break up the six major oil companies that merged eight years ago. Tell them to build refineries or lose tax breaks.”

“We need to quit making the worth of the American dollar drop. And if other truckers would come together to confront the cost of oil/gas and work together as a nation, we could do something about it. We need to quit giving aid to other countries and give aid to Americans.”

“We need to build a lot more refineries in the U.S.”

“New refineries. Also, to heck with the green weenies that want to destroy our economy and turn the U.S. into a socialist country.”

“Allow drilling, release oil and temporarily reduce fuel taxes.” (We read today that Sen. John McCain has proposed a fuel tax holiday between Memorial Day and Labor Day.)

“Speed limit of 60 mph with first fine of $5,000 and 30-day CDL suspension.”

Whether you’re an expert or not, there’s one thing for sure: this is a crisis situation.

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We’re a little more than a month past the annual Mid-America Trucking Show.

Some predicted the high diesel prices would keep down the attendance, and maybe it did somewhat, but the reality is that some 76,000 people poured through the doors of the Kentucky Exposition Center during the three-day event.

It was the first time the show had utilized the new North Wing, which includes the majority of what we used to call the East Wing. (They still call a little of the old area the East Hall.)

There were numerous product introductions, but none from OEMs, although Navistar International publicly exhibited its LoneStar for the first time and Mack unveiled its Titan to the general public.

Both models had been introduced previously at other venues.

From the OEMs, we came away with the impression that none are sure when Class 8 sales might reverse the downward trend.

Several also indicated they’d felt the impact of the declining housing market.

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