Is the Trade War Worth The Trouble?
The whole point of US-imposed tariffs was to increase US manufacturing and manufacturing jobs, was it not? If so, where are the positive results?
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) issues their monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report. This is an important economic indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve, business leaders, and investors.
ISM has no political affiliation. They're a professional trade association. They don't endorse candidates, take partisan positions, or lobby on political issues. Their purpose is professional development, certification, and producing economic data.
Per their latest report:
"Manufacturing continued to contract in November, for the ninth consecutive month."
And, "... the ongoing trade and tariff uncertainty is ostensibly not driving manufacturers to the U.S., [ISM's Susan Spence] said, noting that, instead, it is driving them away."
I'm wondering, at what point will the tariffs start having their desired effect? I know there are anecdotal stories here and there about tariff successes. But when can we expect to see manufacturing return to the US in volumes sufficient to reverse the (accelerating) 9-month manufacturing decline?
The administration of the tariffs has been chaotic by all accounts. They're on again, off again. In effect, suspended. Announced, later modified. Etc. And they have been expensive for US entities. A tariff is a tax, paid not by foreign countries, but by US importers and consumers.
Those are the costs. Where are the benefits?
When the tariffs were first announced, lots of people rose to tout their expected benefits. With several months of actual results to now view, are the same people still touting the same benefits?
How do they explain the consistent and accelerating decline indicated by ISM (the people who know the data better than anyone)?