AMonger
Veteran Expediter
This particular economist is the one who was once asked "When might we regain our freedom?"
His reply was, "When checks from Washington no longer buy anything."
On that note (sorry for the >>s):
A Timetable for Federal Default > Gary North > July 9, 2010A Timetable for Federal Default > Gary North > July 9, 2010
I am enormously cynical about people's motives. I know too much > about direct-response marketing. I know how to write copy to get > people to send money. I know what works. I don't do it, but I know > how. > > I also know that most people regard how-to books the way dieters > regard diet books: guilt-reducing, not weight-reducing. "I bought > another book. I'm serious." Then they refuse to change his diet or > his exercise program. So, about 5% of all those who lose weight keep > it off for five years. That's close to Pareto's 20% of 20%. > > Marketers can always sell diet/exercise plans. They also know that > the buyers will not read them. Those who do will not implement them.
> > If I say, "You have one year," most readers will think, "It's too > late. I can't do anything to help." > > If I say three years, most readers will say, "No problem. I've got > time. I'll begin next year." > > If I say ten years, they will say, "The government will find a way > out." Yes, even hard-core readers.
> > My view is that the default will come in the form of hiking the > eligibility age for Social Security. Then, if that works > politically, they will cut Medicare benefits. They will impose a > means test. This stiffs the rich. > > I think this means test technique will come within four or five > years. I expect to be hit.
> > As for hiking Medicare's eligibility age limit, I think that is at > least two Presidential elections away. That is the third rail. The > AARP will go on the warpath at any hint of this alteration.
> > Inflation at double-digit rates? By the end of 2014.
> > Inflation at 20% or above: by the end of 2017.
> > Why do I think they can kick the can that long? Because banks are > not lending, and they won't lend for at least two years. They hold > the hammer. If the banks start lending next week, cut three years > off this timetable. In short, any sign of a real recovery will > involve bank lending. This will be the key factor.
> > Do I think there is time to build the basis of a real estate > retirement program? Yes. One or two houses a year will do it.
> > Do I think you have enough time to start a small business and hedge > against a career-disrupting bankruptcy of your employer? Yes.
> > Do I think you have enough time to find a safe place in a rural area > an hour from a city and build up its soil? Yes? Build up rapport > with neighbors? Yes. But you must start this year.
> > It will take commitment to hedge: time and money. > > I don't think you have time to build a retirement program based on > your purchase of passive assets: gold, silver, or stocks. > > I don't think you have time to build up your position in your > company to guarantee you a slot in senior management, which will > profit from these changes even if employees don't . . . if the firm > survives.
> > Everything hinges on commercial bank lending. The longer this is > delayed, the longer the government and the FED can kick the can. > > I think commercial real estate is in such bad shape that the banks > will not lend. I see this extending through 2013. In 2014, banks > will start lending. > > So, there is time. But if banks start lending, the timetable speeds > up rapidly.
> > Note: you will be tempted to spend time analyzing the scenario and > all of its permutations. Do not let this become a substitute for > personal planning. Watch out for McChrystal's slide. You might wind > up like McChrystal. > >
His reply was, "When checks from Washington no longer buy anything."
On that note (sorry for the >>s):
A Timetable for Federal Default > Gary North > July 9, 2010A Timetable for Federal Default > Gary North > July 9, 2010
I am enormously cynical about people's motives. I know too much > about direct-response marketing. I know how to write copy to get > people to send money. I know what works. I don't do it, but I know > how. > > I also know that most people regard how-to books the way dieters > regard diet books: guilt-reducing, not weight-reducing. "I bought > another book. I'm serious." Then they refuse to change his diet or > his exercise program. So, about 5% of all those who lose weight keep > it off for five years. That's close to Pareto's 20% of 20%. > > Marketers can always sell diet/exercise plans. They also know that > the buyers will not read them. Those who do will not implement them.
> > If I say, "You have one year," most readers will think, "It's too > late. I can't do anything to help." > > If I say three years, most readers will say, "No problem. I've got > time. I'll begin next year." > > If I say ten years, they will say, "The government will find a way > out." Yes, even hard-core readers.
> > My view is that the default will come in the form of hiking the > eligibility age for Social Security. Then, if that works > politically, they will cut Medicare benefits. They will impose a > means test. This stiffs the rich. > > I think this means test technique will come within four or five > years. I expect to be hit.
> > As for hiking Medicare's eligibility age limit, I think that is at > least two Presidential elections away. That is the third rail. The > AARP will go on the warpath at any hint of this alteration.
> > Inflation at double-digit rates? By the end of 2014.
> > Inflation at 20% or above: by the end of 2017.
> > Why do I think they can kick the can that long? Because banks are > not lending, and they won't lend for at least two years. They hold > the hammer. If the banks start lending next week, cut three years > off this timetable. In short, any sign of a real recovery will > involve bank lending. This will be the key factor.
> > Do I think there is time to build the basis of a real estate > retirement program? Yes. One or two houses a year will do it.
> > Do I think you have enough time to start a small business and hedge > against a career-disrupting bankruptcy of your employer? Yes.
> > Do I think you have enough time to find a safe place in a rural area > an hour from a city and build up its soil? Yes? Build up rapport > with neighbors? Yes. But you must start this year.
> > It will take commitment to hedge: time and money. > > I don't think you have time to build a retirement program based on > your purchase of passive assets: gold, silver, or stocks. > > I don't think you have time to build up your position in your > company to guarantee you a slot in senior management, which will > profit from these changes even if employees don't . . . if the firm > survives.
> > Everything hinges on commercial bank lending. The longer this is > delayed, the longer the government and the FED can kick the can. > > I think commercial real estate is in such bad shape that the banks > will not lend. I see this extending through 2013. In 2014, banks > will start lending. > > So, there is time. But if banks start lending, the timetable speeds > up rapidly.
> > Note: you will be tempted to spend time analyzing the scenario and > all of its permutations. Do not let this become a substitute for > personal planning. Watch out for McChrystal's slide. You might wind > up like McChrystal. > >
