Why the Straight of Horumz is Likely to be Closed for a Long Time
Why is the straight likely to be closed for a long time? I a word, mines.
Trump hailed the recent destruction of a dozen or so Iranian mine laying boats. Those boats did not just show up to begin work., They were busy earlier. The straight is already mined to a degree and additional mine laying is likely. Iran is said to have thousands of mines in its arsenal. They can be laid by any small boat, and Iran has a bunch of small, fast, combat boats. They are trailerable, can be hidden on land, and operated at night.
Iran is well equipped to close the straight and keep it closed because they have been planning this for years. For decades, they have been watching the US Navy operate nearby. They know the US equipment and tactics. They know how to fight an asymmetrical war. With mines now planted (some of which rest on the sea floor until remotely triggered to rise to the surface), it will take weeks to clear the straight, not days, and maybe longer if Iran can continue its clandestine mine laying.
The sea bottom is one level from which an attack can be launched. The surface is another, using unmanned sea drones. The sky is another, using drones and missiles with the easy, close range the narrow straight provides.
The US recently announced it has now struck over 6,000 targets. The Israel count tops 3,400. It's safe to presume that with the accuracy of modern weapons, all of these targets have been damaged or destroyed.
Yet the Iranian will to fight remains and they continue to attack. They have laid mines and it appears they can continue to do so. Yesterday they struck
That's the pickle Trump has gotten himself into. There is no clear end to this war, and no clear way out.
Congratulations, Mr. Trump. The forever war you promised to keep America out of is the war YOU started and will forever own.
Why is the straight likely to be closed for a long time? I a word, mines.
Trump hailed the recent destruction of a dozen or so Iranian mine laying boats. Those boats did not just show up to begin work., They were busy earlier. The straight is already mined to a degree and additional mine laying is likely. Iran is said to have thousands of mines in its arsenal. They can be laid by any small boat, and Iran has a bunch of small, fast, combat boats. They are trailerable, can be hidden on land, and operated at night.
Iran is well equipped to close the straight and keep it closed because they have been planning this for years. For decades, they have been watching the US Navy operate nearby. They know the US equipment and tactics. They know how to fight an asymmetrical war. With mines now planted (some of which rest on the sea floor until remotely triggered to rise to the surface), it will take weeks to clear the straight, not days, and maybe longer if Iran can continue its clandestine mine laying.
The sea bottom is one level from which an attack can be launched. The surface is another, using unmanned sea drones. The sky is another, using drones and missiles with the easy, close range the narrow straight provides.
The US recently announced it has now struck over 6,000 targets. The Israel count tops 3,400. It's safe to presume that with the accuracy of modern weapons, all of these targets have been damaged or destroyed.
Yet the Iranian will to fight remains and they continue to attack. They have laid mines and it appears they can continue to do so. Yesterday they struck
- Four boats (2 bulk carriers, 1 fuel tanker, 1 container ship)
- A UAE military base
- Israeli cities
- US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
- The Dubai airport
- A Saudi oil field
- And forced defenders to expend dozens of interceptor missiles, thereby increasing the drain of those assets.
That's the pickle Trump has gotten himself into. There is no clear end to this war, and no clear way out.
Congratulations, Mr. Trump. The forever war you promised to keep America out of is the war YOU started and will forever own.
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