Seasons

pjjjjj

Veteran Expediter
Expediters will often mention periods of time in which the industry generally slows down more than other times. Like the first quarter (ok, so that would be Jan through March); and then there is the 'summer slowdown' (assuming that would be July and August?); So that is 5 months of the year right there, that expediters have noted a general industry slowdown.

When we were expediting we also noticed a decline around holidays. Some expediters do not agree with this, but many do. On some of the holidays, it would seem like an entire week of general industry slowdown surrounding the holiday day(s), and not just for us specifically.

Then there was the time around the election. During the time preceeding the election, everyone was talking about how, once the election was over, the country would gain confidence once again. It didn't happen, at least not immediately, as hoped.

Then there is Christmas. The time leading into Christmas is great according to many, but once the 25th rolls around, it dies off for the remainder of the year.

Seems like all these slower periods will group into at least half a year, when totaled together. Then on top of those, there are other slower times which are unexplained. For example, I have been reading on here that freight seemed to slow down in mid April. That is only 2 weeks after the first quarter slower time.

Do any expediters keep annual records of peaks and valleys and find a recurring theme? I just find it interesting because some industries are known to be seasonal, but expediting is not. And yet, at least half of the year is known to be slower.

When seasoned expediters talk about 'making hay while the sun shines', they aren't just quoting cute phrases. If expediters adhere to a self imposed time period for being on the road, they are cutting themselves off from enjoying a more prosperous year. It would probably be better to just stay on the road all the time, and then take 2 or 3 months off during a slower period. Kind of hard to do if you're a solo with a family at home. Something to think about for newbies thinking about entering this 'easy business'.

Another thing to think about is the initial business plan, the one in which one will say to themselves, yes, I should be able to get 1500 miles per week (or whatever it is). Be sure to count the slow periods in there.. and the miles that are perhaps lost in the slow times, is it even possible for make up for those during the busy times?

Crazy business!
 

Monty

Expert Expediter
And do not count on seasons to be a business marker .. just keep plugging away .. and do NOT look at your revenue by the week, you will be disappointed for sure! I never figure less that a 90 day period. Then it seems to average out quite nicely.

But you can have my Janurary revenue share .. I'm going to Aruba! :D
 

vanman10

Expert Expediter
I am just finishing up my first year in expediting and have been trying to figure out the "seasons" for the last year. I have found what pjjjjj and notanewbie said to be true, for the most part there is no seasons, look at your revenue from a quarterly stand point and run hard when the freight is good because you never know when a slow period is going to hit.
 

chefdennis

Veteran Expediter
vanman10 wrote:

look at your revenue from a quarterly stand point and run hard when the freight is good because you never know when a slow period is going to hit.

That sentence right there sayes it all...the key is NOT looking at your "weekly" settlements as an idicator of business, but look quarterly...and as was said, run hard when you can.....know what you need to be profitable and don't run for less then that...it is funny that when you feel the "pinch" and start accepting those "cheap" offers from dispatch just to get you out of a certain area, dispatch keeps track of that..and pretty soon, thats all they offer you, because they know you will run for it....don't start that and you will be haead of the game...or lease to a carrier that is honest with its o/o's / drivers to begin with and you trust and that doesn't play those games...
 

purgoose10

Veteran Expediter
I am just finishing up my first year in expediting and have been trying to figure out the "seasons" for the last year. I have found what pjjjjj and notanewbie said to be true, for the most part there is no seasons, look at your revenue from a quarterly stand point and run hard when the freight is good because you never know when a slow period is going to hit.

You keep that frame of mind and you will do well in the future.:cool:
 
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