Could be...my thinking is pure opinion as is anyone's else's and doesn't really sit well with some. I feel we will never see the "busy" we've seen before.
slow freight
- Thread starter osumike33
- Start date
Your thinking is clouded (or blinded) to some extent to automotive freight. Production line shortages are not everything that is carried on expedite trucks these days. In fact, the carriers with a more diverse freight base don't rely on it at all. It is an amazing realization when you actually see the difference. Those who have been in the automotive expedite arena for most of their career fully believe that everything revolves around automotive assembly lines. Those that know better couldn't care less about automotive assembly lines...to an extent. To the extent that as automotive slows, the competition for the non-auto freight increases...that's really about the only concern for a diversified company. I have been leased to both.
So have I , my last carrier only did about 30% auto.. Unfortunately me, you or Xiggi are in a primary auto world for NOW,,,,
I agree. But, that doesn't translate to slow freight for everyone from now on. I also think that our world may be changing soon. That's what I read into some of the changes being made anyway. Wishful thinking?
Or under a contract with an expedite carrier.
You state it well, Rocketman. Diane and I have been driving a straight-truck expediter for ten years with two different carriers. We have done a few automotive loads but very, very few. In general, we don't care much about automotive freight. When people ask, "What do you haul in that thing?" automotive freight does not make the list.
Does not the number of surplus trucks self-adjust? When times are slow, the weak get washed out. When times are busy, the weak linger a bit longer. But in ten years of expediting, I do not recall a time when people on the EO Open Forum said there were too few expedite trucks. Especially when it comes to cargo vans, it seems that the perpetual state of expediter supply is that there are more vans out there than there is profitable freight to haul.
Because van driving is so easy to get into, there seems to always be an ample supply of new owners and drivers who enter the business, linger long enough to go broke, and wash out to make room for the next batch. The continuing presence of potential vanners and the continuing flow of enter-then-wash-out types makes it tough for all vanners, it seems to me.
I don't think what we are seeing is slow automotive vs slow overall. Reading all the other carrier forums seems to me everyone is feeling it. I speak with a number of the execs at the different carriers and it is a broad base slowdown this last 45 days.
I agree. But, that doesn't translate to slow freight for everyone from now on. I also think that our world may be changing soon. That's what I read into some of the changes being made anyway. Wishful thinking?
wasn't you that posted elsewhere.."nothing stays the same?"
I think what we've seen for 2011/2012 is the new model of expedite for CV's/sprinters...
longer periods of slow and shorter periods of busy spread thru the year in short bursts...like last 2 weeks of month or last week of a quarter....forget pre 2010 models...this is what has been trending since then...
RMPM01
Seasoned Expediter
That mantra is long dead, down here at the sprinter level...
and yet carriers are trying to expand and keep putting on CV's & sprinters or some just maintaining fleet size when in fact they should be reducing....IMO
IF I were a betting man we have in excess of at least at a minimum a good 5,000 more vans competing for the same loads in a weak market then we did in 2006...
Just look at these boards and see who is running.....the cheaper, the busier....The Load 1 types are almost at a stop and the .80 - .90 guys are running...
So many scream about Capitalism and lost freedoms, too much competition, etc. until freight gets slow and rates go down! Then they want price supports. LOL.
I envy your vantage point. As a motor carrier with hundreds of trucks, you can see the big picture and statistical trends that are not readily visible to individual owner-operators. It's one thing to track what you do in your truck and compare it to previous months and years. I would love to have visibility into the entire carrier and even the entire expedite fleet to better understand the big picture.
I too envy his vantage point....I have only a ground level view, that and feedback from a small sampling of other O/O's and we see a different perspective.....
In my case...never have I sat so much and been so bored BUT yet managed to gross my income to levels not attained since JuJu and I were teaming....go figure....drive less, make more....
LOL.....ain't that the truth....get out of my sandbox....
But I need to use your sandbox like real bad ........
I think like a lot of business with easy points of entry (like the van market), when things are or were good the segment fills up to the point of capacity or over capacity. You see this less as the barriers to entry ($$$$) increase. Thus the straight truck and tractor market are better insulated from this.
If and that seems like a big IF..the economy gets better....some will go back to their old jobs and give up their vans...
The Taxi business was like that....economy down, lots of drivers to fill the cabs...economy goes up, shortage of drivers as they return to their normal jobs...