muttly
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Cargo Van Will we be able to work through Coronavirus?
- Thread starter Solar
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She is most definitely not Ragmamma. The only reason Ragman has to dress like a hobo is because mama wears Prada. lol J/K
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Are most shippers and receivers requiring drivers to wear masks on their premises?
Since they are so hard to find will those that do allow homemade ones?
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Since they are so hard to find will those that do allow homemade ones?
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A few words on prediction models....
Prediction models, whether they are economic, corporate, climate change, or coronavirus, are not meant to be predictive, much less accurate.
Prediction models are useful, but they're not accurate.
Probably 95% of the public, and clearly 100% of the media (200% for Bill Hemmer, so feel free to laugh out loud at him when he talks about the models), thinks these corona models are supposed to be accurate predictions of the future. Think about that - predict the future. You are already starting to hear it as the numbers come in and are beginning to settle... "The models are wrong!" (No crap, Craplock, they weren't meant to be right). And there will be a few numbnuts who go, "Well of COURSE the models are wrong! They predicted millions of deaths so that Trump would look good when they ended up being lower!" OK, with those people, you can just dismiss them with a sold 2x4 up the side of the head, because they're too stupid to be walking around without a chaperone.
Prediction models are intended to illustrate possible risk, but more to the point they are sales tools, persuasion techniques, to get people to change their behavior. That's it. That's all they are. Useful, but not accurate.
If the experts had predicted right up front that the virus would kill 50,000 people, and they told us that, we'd think, "That's not so bad. Car accidents do that, the regular flu does that, drug overdoses do that." But the experts also know that if the American people think it's no big deal, no steps to mitigate it will take place, so the experts need a little persuasion. They need a picture. Then need a prediction model that looks as scary as it can get, because if it's accurate, then the experts are gonna get blamed for every single death above 50,000. And if it's scary, they can convince the leaders to create policies to mitigate the virus, and the policies will rain down upon the people and the people will act.
The secret of prediction models is, when making one, you always start with the answer. It's either the answer you want, the answer your boss wants, or the answer the experts want. It's not like you plug in known data, assumptions, variables known and unknown, and then out the other end you get what you get. Oh, no, no, no. You start off with the answer, and then plug stuff in, and then tweak it until it gives you the desired answer.
Oh, sure, you can predict the future where things are known. Like a vehicle repair estimate, or home construction, where things are almost exactly like the past. But you can't predict the future where the variables are unknown.
So to recap, climate change models, corporate forecasting models, economic models, Coronavirus Scoreboard of Death models, they are all designed, explicitly, to alter behaviour, not to be accurate. If people could make accurate prediction models, they wouldn't be making them, they'd be sitting on their trillion dollar yachts, earning 200 percent.
Prediction models, whether they are economic, corporate, climate change, or coronavirus, are not meant to be predictive, much less accurate.
Prediction models are useful, but they're not accurate.
Probably 95% of the public, and clearly 100% of the media (200% for Bill Hemmer, so feel free to laugh out loud at him when he talks about the models), thinks these corona models are supposed to be accurate predictions of the future. Think about that - predict the future. You are already starting to hear it as the numbers come in and are beginning to settle... "The models are wrong!" (No crap, Craplock, they weren't meant to be right). And there will be a few numbnuts who go, "Well of COURSE the models are wrong! They predicted millions of deaths so that Trump would look good when they ended up being lower!" OK, with those people, you can just dismiss them with a sold 2x4 up the side of the head, because they're too stupid to be walking around without a chaperone.
Prediction models are intended to illustrate possible risk, but more to the point they are sales tools, persuasion techniques, to get people to change their behavior. That's it. That's all they are. Useful, but not accurate.
If the experts had predicted right up front that the virus would kill 50,000 people, and they told us that, we'd think, "That's not so bad. Car accidents do that, the regular flu does that, drug overdoses do that." But the experts also know that if the American people think it's no big deal, no steps to mitigate it will take place, so the experts need a little persuasion. They need a picture. Then need a prediction model that looks as scary as it can get, because if it's accurate, then the experts are gonna get blamed for every single death above 50,000. And if it's scary, they can convince the leaders to create policies to mitigate the virus, and the policies will rain down upon the people and the people will act.
The secret of prediction models is, when making one, you always start with the answer. It's either the answer you want, the answer your boss wants, or the answer the experts want. It's not like you plug in known data, assumptions, variables known and unknown, and then out the other end you get what you get. Oh, no, no, no. You start off with the answer, and then plug stuff in, and then tweak it until it gives you the desired answer.
Oh, sure, you can predict the future where things are known. Like a vehicle repair estimate, or home construction, where things are almost exactly like the past. But you can't predict the future where the variables are unknown.
So to recap, climate change models, corporate forecasting models, economic models, Coronavirus Scoreboard of Death models, they are all designed, explicitly, to alter behaviour, not to be accurate. If people could make accurate prediction models, they wouldn't be making them, they'd be sitting on their trillion dollar yachts, earning 200 percent.
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muttly
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The behavior has definitely been altered. People wearing masks all over the place. Avoiding each other and shouting to each other from a distance. People cleaning everything in sight and washing their hands to the bone.
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I wish the num-nuts and know-nothings would just shut up already.
This has nothing to do with Trump. He did not create this virus, and is handling it the best anybody in his position can, In my simpleton opinion.
This has nothing to do with Trump. He did not create this virus, and is handling it the best anybody in his position can, In my simpleton opinion.
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It doesn't.
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Theoretically, it should. For the big box stores in particular, it should reduce the number of people shopping in public (and thereby reduce the risk of spreading the virus) by eliminating the people who are in there explicitly to buy things that aren't essential items.
I might take issue with some gardening stuff, though. I know some places that have done this have deemed seeds as non-essential. You know, seeds to plant for food. You can't just wait until June to plant these things, they need to get in the ground soon.
But the other day in Walmart, I saw a disturbing number of people in there shopping for clothes, while getting no food, cleaning supplies, even toilet paper. Those people don't need to be in public. I watched one woman take her kids into Walmart not to get food or some other essentials, but to get the kids some Hello Kitty something or another. Really, lady?
These are not people who are pretending they have the virus, and assuming everyone else has it. But that's what you need to do.
Many stores are limiting the number of people allowed inside at a time. Some are limiting it to 20 percent of the fire code max capacity. Others are limiting it to 5 people per 1000 square feet of shopable floor space. Kroger is using infrared sensors to limit the number of people in the stores. Which is good, because I drive by a Kroger, and the parking lot looks like the day before Thanksgiving.
What's happening is, all of the businesses in a given Zip Code are closed, except just a few, like grocery stores, pharmacies, etc., and what happens is, that's where everyone goes. They might as well call these places Coronavirus Collection Centers.
On a somewhat related and quasi humorous note, about a week ago Walmart reported a huge uptick in clothing sales, but it was mostly shirts, but not pants. Sales of pants were actually down. So Ali these people working from home, and visiting friends and relatives using Skype, FaceTime, etc., they're Donald Ducking it.
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muttly
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I think all essential employees should be wearing a mask in an office setting. Most are wearing, but a few aren't. I guess they either don't care, don't think they will get it, or think that they don't have it because of no symptoms. The masks can be uncomfortable and I'm slightly annoyed that I'm wearing one and some others are talking close up without a mask.
muttly
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Couple things I heard on the radio today in Michigan: Pfizer and another company teaming up may have the vaccine by the end of the year. The antibody test will be ready next week and will be ramped up for testing. I want to take that test, STAT.
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muttly
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WJR
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I would like to take that test also. I had COVID-19 symptoms in early February and had to go to a medical clinic. A nasal swab was taken to rule out the flu. At the time nobody was testing for COVID-19. I would like a definitive yes or no if I had COVID-19
muttly
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A lot of people are saying this now. Michigan's governor said that the virus was here earlier than thought. California had a mysterious "flu" outbreak back in November, December.
muttly
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I had some time to watch this last night as I hunkered down in my basement.
Hour long but worth the watch. Video suggests the virus didn't come from the wet market and earlier than reported. Coincidentally I just happened to see their newspaper today when doing my other non expediting job and it had several stories similar to the video.
Hour long but worth the watch. Video suggests the virus didn't come from the wet market and earlier than reported. Coincidentally I just happened to see their newspaper today when doing my other non expediting job and it had several stories similar to the video.
