Economy???

[purgoose10]

Well here we go. What do you think is going to happen??
It's the fourth quarter, freight a little more than so so. Stocks selling off like crazy. GM opening and upgrading plants to build more cars. The feds are selling off bonds at zero percent causing the market to drop dramatically and everyones getting nervous about recession. My prediction for what its worth, I see a terrible 2012. Especially the first quarter. If your automotive exclusive, look out. No money, no banks lending money (their making to much on their bonds so they don't have to lend money). I think 10% unemployment is not far off. The banks and mortgages, forget it. GM is hiring and putting people back to work on building trucks that a month ago had to shut down a plant because inventory was to high, say what? UAW is negotiating with Chrysler on a new contract. This should be good considering UAW bought out part of Chrysler in the last stimulos. How do you negotiate with a conflict of interest??
If you don't have any money put back, good luck. I hope someone can paint a better picture because to me it looks grim.

 

[OntarioVanMan]

Too many variables....IMO a nudge here and a nudge there could make a big difference....new auto making plants coming online..others coming back to full production....

 

[Tennesseahawk]

Here's what I've been hearing about the mortgage front. People are walking away from their houses - not because they can't afford them; but rather because they're being screwed by the banks. For example, someone has $100,000 mortgage, and his house is now worth $30,000 because banks, instead of tearing down foreclosures, put them up for auction for $10-20k - drastically lowering the values of houses all around. The banks already get paid the value of the mortgage by the government. They don't NEED to auction the houses off.

As far as the rest of the economy - pumping money to the investors it not working like it was. The stock market WILL fail... it's just a question of when.

 

[paullud]

A second recession is possible but seems rather unlikely. You also need to remember the housing market jumped 7.7% for existing homes in August and was up about 19% from August 2010. There are plenty of signs things are picking up, you just need to look.

Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

 

[Tennesseahawk]

Too many variables....IMO a nudge here and a nudge there could make a big difference....new auto making plants coming online..others coming back to full production....

If too few are willing to make that big of a purchase, what difference does it make?

 

[OntarioVanMan]

If too few are willing to make that big of a purchase, what difference does it make?

that is where the nudge and poke come in...these new plants opening and others back to full production.....those employees/salary just might have the leap of faith to start buying....and the ball gets rolling....

 

[purgoose10]

Too many variables....IMO a nudge here and a nudge there could make a big difference....new auto making plants coming online..others coming back to full production....

I understand about the ramping up of production with every auto manufacturer. But! If there isn't any money or jobs, how do people buy all those new cars and trucks? The new contract for auto workers, can't lay them off so they build cars, where do they put them? Fed Ex CEO yesterday stated that he see's the recession has already started and that Fed Ex freight is on a down turn. Freight slowing in the fourth quarter with Christmas just around the corner? That's a terrible sign.

Here's what I've been hearing about the mortgage front. People are walking away from their houses - not because they can't afford them; but rather because they're being screwed by the banks. For example, someone has $100,000 mortgage, and his house is now worth $30,000 because banks, instead of tearing down foreclosures, put them up for auction for $10-20k - drastically lowering the values of houses all around. The banks already get paid the value of the mortgage by the government. They don't NEED to auction the houses off.

As far as the rest of the economy - pumping money to the investors it not working like it was. The stock market WILL fail... it's just a question of when.

The banks are insured from forclossures. Most American must pay (i'm not sure the name IMO or something) that premium in their mortgage payments. So the bank again is not loosing money. Repo a VA backed mortgage well another government bailout. Freddy and his buddy Mack 5 billion in Government backing. If the government stayed out of the mortgage business I think it would straight'n itself out.

 

[OntarioVanMan]

A second recession is possible but seems rather unlikely. You also need to remember the housing market jumped 7.7% for existing homes in August and was up about 19% from August 2010. There are plenty of signs things are picking up, you just need to look.

Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

Housing Starts Fell 5 Percent in August | Journal of Commerce

“There is still no sign yet of a pickup in housing,” Patrick Newport, U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, said in a commentary. “Pent-up demand for housing is building as young adults stay at home, and at some point will spark a major revival in housing activity. But it is becoming harder to see that soon.”

 

[paullud]

I understand about the ramping up of production with every auto manufacturer. But! If there isn't any money or jobs, how do people buy all those new cars and trucks? The new contract for auto workers, can't lay them off so they build cars, where do they put them? Fed Ex CEO yesterday stated that he see's the recession has already started and that Fed Ex freight is on a down turn. Freight slowing in the fourth quarter with Christmas just around the corner? That's a terrible sign.

It must be FedEx has the worst CEO ever if that is true. They are making a big push to get vehicles on but are losing freight? If they really are seeing a decrease in freight it must mean that people are just using other carriers since others are doing better.

Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

 

[OntarioVanMan]

I understand about the ramping up of production with every auto manufacturer. But! If there isn't any money or jobs, how do people buy all those new cars and trucks? The new contract for auto workers, can't lay them off so they build cars, where do they put them? Fed Ex CEO yesterday stated that he see's the recession has already started and that Fed Ex freight is on a down turn. Freight slowing in the fourth quarter with Christmas just around the corner? That's a terrible sign.


Package and parcel giant's profit rose 22 percent in June-August quarter


FedEx’s net profit rose 22 percent to $464 million in its June-August quarter, but the world’s largest air cargo carrier lowered its earnings expectations for the rest of the year, citing a slowdown in global trade.
"We expect sluggish economic growth will continue," CEO Fred Smith told analysts. FedEx, widely considered an economic bellwether, said it had a “moderate outlook” for the economy and now expects to earn $6.25 to $6.75 per share for its current fiscal year, compared with a previous estimate of $6.35 to $6.85.



The banks are insured from forclossures. Most American must pay (i'm not sure the name IMO or something) that premium in their mortgage payments. So the bank again is not loosing money. Repo a VA backed mortgage well another government bailout. Freddy and his buddy Mack 5 billion in Government backing. If the government stayed out of the mortgage business I think it would straight'n itself out.

all Fedex said they did not make their targets....right now truckload is going great guns....

 

[OntarioVanMan]

It must be FedEx has the worst CEO ever if that is true. They are making a big push to get vehicles on but are losing freight? If they really are seeing a decrease in freight it must mean that people are just using other carriers since others are doing better.

Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

No their operating costs have increased effecting the bottomline...and increased international competition from UPS and the likes of Bax Global

also related:
http://www.joc.com/importexport/port-tracker-expects-import-growth-fall

 

[paullud]

Housing Starts Fell 5 Percent in August | Journal of Commerce

“There is still no sign yet of a pickup in housing,” Patrick Newport, U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, said in a commentary. “Pent-up demand for housing is building as young adults stay at home, and at some point will spark a major revival in housing activity. But it is becoming harder to see that soon.”

I guess we will have a headline duel, if you do a search for home sales up in August you get a bunch of the same.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/09/us-home-sales-up-august.html

Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

 

[Deville]

I would put more stock is UPS earnings & forcast than FEDEX. FEDEX express over night might be down,but freight is doing well.

 

[paullud]

No their operating costs have increased effecting the bottomline...and increased international competition from UPS and the likes of Bax Global

also related:
http://www.joc.com/importexport/port-tracker-expects-import-growth-fall

Yeah I think the key word in that quote you posted was global. Our slow down had a big impact in bringing others down and I think our economy will likely lead the way up.

Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

 

[greg334]

A lot of sales of GM products are coming from short term leasing and sub-prime lending. This was the same issue that got them into trouble in the first place. They are still using tax payer money in both the form of loans and grants to shore up their ledger and we may see their stocks sink to new lows in the near term.

The big issue isn't we going into a recession, we never left the one that started and it wasn't great then but will be if we don't do more than have the government intervene.

The biggest worry is the EU, more specifically Greece and Italy, both in serious trouble with Spain not far behind. If Greece actually defaults - not our type of defaulting - and collapses from within, then Italy and Spain will follow and our great banking system will tumble too because the idiots took a lot of that bail out money and invested into the Euro because of what appears to be a faltering dollar ... can we all say stupid?

Nevertheless, unless we do something and not talk about solution, we will go with europe ... again...

 

[golfournut]

GM China is doing great. Employing 13k Chinese. Some talk of producing the Volt over there. I don't know if that means shutting it down here. They produce 3 cars there. Including a Cadillac. Sales are extremely good.

Why does GM need our money? They can get it from the Chinese, probably cheaper that we can.

 

[ATeam]

We can all talk about general economic conditions and share opinions. Closer to home, like in the driver's seat of Diane's and my expediter truck, we see good going ahead now that we are once again with a carrier whose interests are aligned with our own. We are fully engaged in and fully committed to our one-truck expediting business.

That said, we are playing it safe too, as in maintaining a debt-free balance sheet and being prepared to go quickly to all cash when indicated to protect our invested capital.

On the downside, we are never far from the worst case scenario. We already live in a truck and have quite a bit in common with street people (getting run out of places, being looked down upon by many, working frequently to find a safe place to sleep, etc.).

 

[Camper]

Well here we go. What do you think is going to happen??
It's the fourth quarter, freight a little more than so so. Stocks selling off like crazy. GM opening and upgrading plants to build more cars. The feds are selling off bonds at zero percent causing the market to drop dramatically and everyones getting nervous about recession. My prediction for what its worth, I see a terrible 2012. Especially the first quarter. If your automotive exclusive, look out. No money, no banks lending money (their making to much on their bonds so they don't have to lend money). I think 10% unemployment is not far off. The banks and mortgages, forget it. GM is hiring and putting people back to work on building trucks that a month ago had to shut down a plant because inventory was to high, say what? UAW is negotiating with Chrysler on a new contract. This should be good considering UAW bought out part of Chrysler in the last stimulos. How do you negotiate with a conflict of interest??
If you don't have any money put back, good luck. I hope someone can paint a better picture because to me it looks grim.

As I've said in other threads, this country has been on an inflationary cycle for the past 40 to 50 years and it is long overdue for a correction. Some call it a recession, others, a depression. Whatever, one wishes to call it, the undisputable fact is it's long overdue and much needed.

GM is only alive because of an administration that has been bought and sold by the UAW. Given their willingness to cave into unsustainable demands by the UAW(a $5k signing bonus for assembly line thugs, seriosuly??) It is clear that GM has slipped back into its old ways and that Obama sold we the tax payers down the river, all in the name of paying off his last remaining ally, union bosses.

The only effective remedy of government and the Federal Reserve is a hands off approach. The business cycle needs to be allowed to revert back to its natural mean, which right now is far lower than it's been allowed to fall.


Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

 

[purgoose10]

All is true. The Fed Ex guy that made the statement is the head of Fed Ex ground. I don't know if that guy runs it all or ??. There's so many Fed ex's I don't know one from the other.

 

[Camper]

All is true. The Fed Ex guy that made the statement is the head of Fed Ex ground. I don't know if that guy runs it all or ??. There's so many Fed ex's I don't know one from the other.

If you're talking about Fred Smith, he's the CEO and founder of the parent company. I don't recall who runs the individual subsidiaries though.

One thing about Fred is he's done an excellent job at keeping the Teamsters at bay, something UPS has never been able to do.



Posted with my Droid EO Forum App