Quote:
Originally Posted by vipra
Would anyone care to speculate on what technology will be like 35 years from today?
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In 1893, at the Chicago World's Fair, electricity was used to power exhibits. This was a manifestation of the new age of electricity or electric revolution or volt generation or whatever else they may have called it then. Electric power was new and would soon burrow its way into every aspect of American life.
There are some interesting similarities between that revolution and the digital revolution, information age, knowledge worker age, or whatever we choose to call it today.
When electricity first came out, debates raged about DC and AC. The cool guys of the day talked about wiring, insulators, grounds, transformers, building codes, etc. Today, electricity is taken for granted and, while absolutely essential for modern living, has moved into the background of our lives. When you turn on the lights, you don't think about electricity or its source or distribution system. You just flip a switch.
Not long ago, when people talked on new devices called cell phones or on the internet, they often talked about the phones themselves or the kind of online connection or service they had. Today, people speak little of such things, just as you give no thought to electricity when you flip a light switch. Cell phones and internet connections have faded into the background.
When electricity first found its way into homes, the Sears Roebuck catalog featured electric motors with attachments. One motor might power several household devices and was a status item in upper middle class homes. Now, all American homes contain dozens of motors that got smaller, less visible and individually applied (dishwasher, microwave turntable, clocks, furnace blowers, hand tools, etc.).
Not long ago, home computers were the centerpiece of upper middle class homes. Now, computing power is finding its way out of centralized devices and into the background, smaller, less visible, and applied to individual purposes. (dishwasher, microwave turntable, clocks, furnace blowers, hand tools, calculators, refrigerators, coffee makers, personal digital assistants, hearing aids, etc.) People dont' think or talk about the kinds of computers they have any more. They just use devices that have computing power built in.
In 1893, people were in the early part of the electronic revolution. Today, we are in the early stages of the digital revolution. While visionaries talk about a world filled with devices powered by artificial intelligence (cars the drive themselves, robots that do housework, etc.) the current trend is convergence.
Electric pioneers worked out the AC, DC standards war. Today, we are working through a host of digital standards. The more standardized we become, the more convergence occurs.
The latest convergence example is the iPhone which can bring to the palm of your hand a personal organizer, real-time traffic reports, internet access, movies, music, and the ability to message others in a number of ways. This might end TV sets as we know them, replaced by big screens with iPhone docks, instead of TV sets with TV tuners built into each one.
That is now. I believe the convergence trend will partially reverse itself as devices become more specific and less multi-functioned. Combined devices like an all-in-one printer/fax/scanner make sense because the functions are related. Using a cell phone for GPS navigation while driving makes less sense. A stand-alone GPS device in the truck is likely to remain just that...a stand alone device.
Because new devices with new capabilities are being invented and replacing older devices at such a rapid rate, I do not see an end to the ongoing standards dance anytime soon. I believe that while we will continue to be amazed by the latest and greatest, it will be up to the next generation to settle the modern day equivilant of the AC/DC debate.
I do believe that whatever the digital device may be, the focus will shift from the device itself to function. It's not about the gizmo. It's about the computing power applied to achieve a specific task. That means the gizmos are going to become less and less visible and as much a part of everyday life as electric moters in homes and light switches on walls.
Mathematics is the language of the digital device. People who know math will have an edge. Philosophy and theology have to do with the meaning of life. People well grounded in those will also have an edge. They will be better equipped to see their way through and provide ledershiup in the increasingly chaotic, powerful and fast-moving world digital devices make possible.
As it spread across the country, electricity was proclaimed by some to be of the Devil. By others it was the salvation of humanity. People bought into all sorts of electric concepts that look ridiculous today (witness medical equipment and suggested cures electricity was then said to make possible).
When contemplating the future of technology, the question is not what will people think of it 35 years from today? The question is when will digital devices and the computing power that drives them reach the point where people no longer think about it? And when that happens, what of our quality of life?
Electricity enhanced worker productivity by making factory night shifts possible (lights) and bringing things like conveyor belts onto the factory floor. But that did little to enhance the quality of a laborer's work experience.
Databases and call centers have today reduced us all to sub-human beings, using our telephone key pads to navigate our way through corporate customer service recorded messages. We don't go to free, human being bank tellers any more. We pay a fee to use an ATM. We do self check out and bag our own goods but receive no discount. Our personal data is aggregated by others into useful and valuable information, and sold without any compensation to us. Truck computers have put a large part of truck repair out of reach of drivers who used to work on their own trucks. Truck costs and operating expenses have increased as a result.
On the positive side, digital technology applied to medicine has extended our lifespan. It is easier for grandparents to communicate with their grandchildren than ever before. Personal bill paying can be automated and the time required reduced to a fraction of what it used to take in the past.
With the coming RFID tags, we will be freed from checkout lines, BUT, corporations will have us profiled right down to the kind of underware we have on at any given moment (literally). The latest marketing rage in cell phones is to develop the ability to determine where you are standing at a given moment so an ad can be sent to you.
Outside of Barnes and Nobel? Bingo...an ad comes to you for a free coffee and 20% off a book if you come in now. In the fragerance section of a department store? Here comes the ad...walk just 10 steps to the counter and receive a free sample.
More ominous; are you waiting for surgery? An insurance company or government health plan accountant has you on the screen in real time, cross referencing your genes with acturaial tables as part of the approval process to authorize what payment the doctors will receive and what services will be made available.
From our truck, Qualcomm code 03, "At the Gate." will no longer be necessary. A quick check of the screen will tell the shipper you are in the driver's lounge, sitting on the pot.
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