What doyou think Expediting will be like in 2010?

[Bruno]

With 2010 just 13 days away, what do you think next year will be like in the expedite business? I'm hoping for a bad winter to be honest. It seems that the expedite business start off with a bang when we have a bad winter. Things break because of the cold, cars need to be replaced from accidents. So Many things to think about. Lets pray for a bad winter.

[davekc]

I'll stay down here and watch from where it is warm.

[aristotle]

We can make a fair living from expediting without hoping to gain from the misfortune of others. I like mild winters and accident-free travel for all.

[Bruno]

I not saying I want bad things to happen to people. Cold weather is just good for our business. We have no control over the weather and things get behind on shipments because of bad weather.

[aristotle]

In answer to the thread's question... I expect 2010 to be very much like 2009. A continuation of cheap rates. Shippers love it and it's really caught on. Those temporary rate cuts weren't really temporary.

[eggd1ver]

The reason for cheap freight is that someone is willing to run that freight at low rates. We also have to realize that in the last year people and companys were running for there lives in this economy. I think things will stablize level off some will not like the rates but if we have more work it will all work out if your willing to do the work. Now it might be like it use to be roll up your sleeves and put your nose to the grindstone and go to work

RICK&IDA
PANTHER DRIVERES

[FIS53]

It's going to be interesting. I think we'll see the months with spikes of business and downturns. Cheap rates yes will more than likely continue as we are seeing this trend. Many places are still not up to full production or having to rush to meet demand of consumers so we should still be on a slow build for the first half of the year. This of course depends on consumer demands which for the moment look to be slowly gaining (and for the next few months).
There will be those of us who do alright and rather well and those who seem to only catch a good run couple of times a month. Most I think will continue with low numbers for 3-6 months.

Someone should start expediter classes at the truck stops to earn extra cash.
Rob

[Tennesseahawk]

I think the number of expediters will be thinned again. Ppl who can't grasp it, or manage their money, will exit the biz. Those who survive will tend to be better off for it.

[BigRed32771]

Cautiously optimistic is the best I can give you for the coming year when it comes to my own situation, but a little less so for the national economy and the trucking and expedite business.

Things are balanced on the razor's edge, and could go either way. The media is quick to proclaim any good news in the economy while staying mum about some of the more serious challenges still lurking about. I fear this gives a false impression that "we've turned the corner" and "recover is beginning" when there is good reason to doubt. Few are talking about the very serious possibility of another major downleg in the real estate and financial markets, this time due to the commercial real estate situation. The resulting credit crunch could really hurt things.

A big factor in the sluggishness of the economy currently is fear by businesses regarding the uncertainties of the political system. With so much "change" being pushed so quickly, it is difficult to assess what the business envirionment will be in a year or two, and this makes adding employees (which everyone agrees is sorely needed) a risky venture. If some of the more business-killing proposals bouncing around the streets of DC go by the wayside, then probably businesses will begin to ramp up again and put people on the job. If we get hit with this Socialist Medical System, a Cap-and-Tax energy "plan," or both, plus more intervention into the free market economy by a government controlled by people who do not value the free market, then things could go seriously south in a hurry. Economists now recognize that the "New Deal" of the FDR years turned a severe recession or mild depression into what we now call "the Great Depression" and extended the economic pain by seven years longer than necessary. It is entirely possible for the current government, which views the "New Deal" as a "good starting point," to continue to make the same kinds of mistakes which were made in the 30's and which contributed to an extended period of bleak economic possibilities for the nation. This would mean that the prospects for the expedite business could well be the least of our problems.

It is also possible that in the coming year one or more of the really big trucking companies (think Yellow Freight et. al.) could fail. With thousands of drivers suddenly unemployed, the resulting mad scramble for work any sort could well push a bunch of them into the expedite business. There's plenty of evidence to suggest that desperate people will grasp at anything to keep them afloat for the moment, and I believe such a situation could set off another wave of price cutting as people, who may be experienced as drivers but know little of business and long range planning, jump on any offer of work no matter how ridiculously priced just to keep a little cash flowing for another day or two.

All this said, I do remain cautiously optimistic. Things don't usually go either as well or as badly as they could, but rather fall somewhere in the middle of the range. A long slow grinding recovery is the most likely situation (I don't think we'll be out of it by the end of 2010 despite rosy talk by the chattering and political classes), but I remain aware of the possibility for things to jump the rail and go to pieces in a New York minute.

Keep your powder dry.

Doug

[Dakota]

It will be all sunshine and lollipops

[nightcreacher]

In the beginning every load was an expedite load,hurry up pick up,straight thru delivery,with a pay that reflected the urgency.
Some where in the latter years,these timed deliveries are not always expedite in nature.Sure we pick them up as expedite,but in reality,they are just regular loads and the timed delivery is only important to our own companies.
Since all our companies are doing these type loads,the usual slow 1st quarter should be better than most years,sure the pay may be not what we all want,but like in the sales industry,if you don't charge as much,you just have to sell more,in the case of trucking,just have to be more available,maybe do more loads you might not normally do.
This year my money per mile is down from what it usually is,but my net hasn't suffered,sure,I've had to watch my expenses,oh and gross pay hasn't suffered,doing more loads.
As an E unit,I'm not expecting much of a slow down in the 1st quarter

[OntarioVanMan]

"Busy" Is all relative to ones effort in this business...When it slows the experience factor shows thru....a couple more loads a month then the inexperienced expediter
...and then of course the "luck" factor..whether your run is a 300 miler as compared to a 600 miler when your number comes up...and of course where it leaves you.
When it is slower I have much more communication with load planning....you know ASK where they see loads popping up on the load boards, whether it is profitable to move on my own dime to "maximize my load opportunities". A lot of thought can go into "busy" Then of course MY "busy" is different then yours, as my needs differ then yours.

So whatever YOUR "busy" means to you and yours....

Good Luck.....Ovm aka Ken

[Bruno]

I think 2010 will be a better year than 2009 if we have a cold winter. With Bad weather things freeze, break, and needs to be replaced. The weather has alot to do with our business and it can keep us really busy. If you think about it bad weather is good for business. I have seen the bad and good weather make us really busy. If you call your company and ask them if run counts are up when we have bad weather they will tell you yes.

[jelliott]

I am hopeful it will be a better year. I think the first quarter will start off slowly like it traditionally does. I am hopeful by March we will see freight volume climb back into the same area it was in the fourth quarter of 2009. I agree with others on here that the herd will be thinned. I think the sharp climb in freight in the fourth quarter was a boost but also a danger to companies that are not financially solid. They will have pushed their financial means to the limits right before the holiday slowdown and subsequent cash reduction. We have already seen this in the average number of days other expeditors are taking to pay us for hauling for them.

Companies that invest in people, technology, and their fleets, and have strong financial mechanisms in place should come out ahead. Others will fall by the wayside this year.

Here is to a great New Year to everyone on EO!

[greg334]

Hey John,
I am wondering about something that you just mentioned and it was brought up on a different site.

With these changes that everyone seems to be talking about over the use of technology, how many companies do you think will make an investment in technology that actually does something to reduce costs overall and allow the contractor to do a better job?

Some are cheering for some changes at one company, moving off of the AS400 system to some new fangled windows platform (God only if they knew) and another company is carrying the oracle banner loud and proud over dumping their old fleet management system but I have yet to see real changes come to any company that really allow the contractor more control over their information (finances) and more information for decision making in the field (truck location, load dispatched in near real time, etc...) which will actually reduce the cost of operations. I think it is like some of the work I have done, they depend on the "experts" to guide them without understanding what they really need.